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UAE to leave OPEC

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371–380 of 750 posts

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't see how it is actually a win for Trump. OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. I mean, I don’t even know if I mean this sarcastically anymore, but are we sure that Trump and the US’ interests are aligned? I think something can be a win for Trump and a loss for the USA.

Majority of US voted for Trump. Maybe not aligned with your version of US, but this is what the majority wanted

I believe it to be possible to vote for someone and also not be 100% aligned with every outcome they bring about.

In fact, it may even be possible for this to be more in line with the vision of people who did not vote for Trump than the people who voted for him.

If you look at presidents historically, there are some occasions where the vision they described during the campaign to get votes is not in fact the vision they bring about while governing.

Also - what is your presumption of what my vision of the USA might be?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ending foreign aid to Egypt is probably very aligned with ending foreign aid to Israel in terms of popularity among American voters I strongly suspect the average American has absolutely zero sense of how much foreign aid we give Egypt. That's not to contradict your point directly, just that it isn't a very salient part of American politics (unlike Israeli foreign aid).

> it isn't a very salient part of American politics (unlike Israeli foreign aid). I feel like Israeli aid, while vastly more salient than it used to be, is still mostly salient as a left-of-center wedge issue, otherwise being about as salient as your average major foreign policy issue - ranking just under the least salient domestic policy issue, which ranks just under the most minor personal quality of any candidate,…

It's also become a right-of-center (right of far-right?) wedge issue in the past 12 months. But I otherwise completely agree with you; I think there's a veritable chasm between how much the media talks about the US's foreign aid (both to Israel and in general) and how much it actually matters to the average voter.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#375
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large vehicles are safer for the occupants of the vehicle, however they do increase danger for pedestrians and drivers of other vehicles in a collision. There is a reasonable argument that reducing vehicle size would save lives overall

This is a myth. Larger vehicles are not safer for their occupants; they merely feel that way.

> This is a myth. Larger vehicles are not safer for their occupants; they merely feel that way.

I'm pretty sure it's not, because physics. A tank is safer than a bike for the poilot, when there is a collision. This data is a little muddled, but follows common sense.

Large SUVs and Pickups: These vehicles have the lowest occupant fatality rates, averaging 14 deaths per million registered vehicles for SUVs compared to 48 per million for sedans. Large luxury SUVs often register statistically zero deaths in specific three-year studies.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#376
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

How many CAFE compliant “light trucks” do you see around? CAFE is a great example of a well-meaning regulation failing because the people who developed and approved it didn’t think through the obvious consequences.

[deleted]

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#377

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

You are missing this interesting, and confidential until now, deployment of Israeli forces in UAE: "Israel sent "Iron Dome" system and troops to UAE" - https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae Also...their central bank governor quietly asked the US Treasury for a dollar swap line...Combined with the Pakistan $3.5B recall and OPEC exit, that is three coordinated moves of a cashflow stressed country...and…

This kind of cooperation is not unprecedented, for example they've collaborated in the occupation of Socotra.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#378

This is the US trying to salvage the petrodollar. They want those t-bills and oil priced in dollars to maintain reserve currency status, but the whole world is divesting anyway. UAE is hoping that by leaving OPEC they can continue to do business and get protection from US. But US isn't gonna risk a larger war just to defend UAE, US has plenty of oil to exploit in Venezuela and at home. So UAE is just kinda screwed, a…

The petrodollar and petroeuro is misunderstood. The real point: These oil/gas exporting nations don't have enough investable assets in their own nations. As a result, they need to invest overseas. For a long time, the best places to invest this excess capital in the world were/are North America, Europe, and Northeast Asia (Japan/Korea/Taiwan). If you want to say that petrodollar or petroeuro is doomed, what will repl…

It's not that the petrodollar is doomed, it's just 'devaluing'. The US isn't a stable, safe place for cash anymore. But the world still needs massive amounts of safe cash. So there really is only one alternative: diversify.

They'll diversity into Gold, rare-earth metals (they're only getting more important), CIPS, Yuan, Euro. That diversification helps everyone else, but will hurt the US, which hurts financial markets, and thus everyone else. And once they're all divested, the diversification will add risk and losses. Can't be helped though, they still need security. So we're looking at a generation of slow global decline, probably propped up slightly by the industrialization of AI (which of course China is leading the world in, as nobody cares about "better", they care about "cheaper"). China is the real winner, because all they need is oil, and their partners will make sure they get a steady supply (because it's in their partners' interests; that's what having allies is all about).

US can't stop this; their military isn't equipped to fight wars on multiple fronts, their lumbering, expensive weapons can't be sustained in a protracted conflict, their wars aren't popular at home, and they don't have the manpower. Even when they eventually start the draft back up it'll take years to build up their warfighting capabilities, and by then the world will have diversified enough that they can take the hit. (The US will try a World War anyway to try and retain the Empire, because their leaders are psychotic morons and their people are compliant, but they'll still lose. (Historic parallel: Sparta. Great military, but tiny, so most of their power came from wealth and tenant states; eventually the rest of the mediterranean got tired of their shit (installing dictatorships, alienating allies) and their empire died. Hell, even their Navy was paid for by Persia - foreign investment used to weaken rivals via proxy war))

I don't think this is avoidable. Nobody trusts the US now. The divestment has already begun. Countries aren't suddenly going to change their minds - even if Trump doesn't overthrow the government to cement this new status quo in 2028 (which he 100% will), the next President could be another Trump. Nobody wants to be subject to their insane policies (foreign & fiscal) anymore. So the US isn't a secure place for cash. Nations aren't just going to shrug and ignore it, they're going to act to protect their interests.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#379

Serious question: what is OPEC’s influence in 2026? Most analyses I’ve read suggest that it’s essentially a defunct organization and has been since the 1980s, due to (1) a lack of geopolitical agreement between members, and (2) a lack of punishment/compensatory mechanisms for when individual members cheat on their commitments.

OPEC member countries control approximately 50% of the world’s crude oil exports. Additionally, OPEC nations hold nearly 80% of the world's proven oil reserves.

Does being a member of OPEC affect that at all?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. IMO economics always wins. You're never going to see an all-cooperate scenario. You will see an all-compete scenario, so constantly reducing…

In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel A plug in solar panel and microinverter at the local supermarket is about €1k/kW. 9kW of solar for €9k/£8k/$10.5k to power an average US car and an average US house. Avearge US car does 13,000 miles a year needs about 4,500kWh, so €4500 An average US home uses 11kWh a day, or 4,000 kWh a year, that would be another €4000 US electric price is an average…

Your US home consumption is off. EIA puts the average at 10,500 kWh per year, 875/month, 29/day.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/electricit...

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