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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#121

Post by jmyeet »

seydor wrote: post #94
jmyeet wrote: post #34

To anyone wondering, yes this is a consequence of the War in Iran but what this means isn't exactly clear. Or rather the consequences aren't clear. For a super brief background, the US has what's been called an oil-for-security deal with Saudi Arabia since 1945. The US supports the Saudi royal family and Saudi Arabia keeps the oil flowing, which has largely been the case (other than 1973). Saudi Arabia remains the "b…

how will they get the oil out of the Gulf?

The UAE has some facilities to export on the outside of the Gulf and they can ship I believe ~1.8Mbpd on the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline). That's only a fraction of their 4-5Mbpd production and I'm sure they're already using it so short-term I don't think it matters so much.

But when the Strait does open, which will happen eventually, the UAE will probably go to town so to speak, exporting well above what they might've otherwise as an OPEC member.

My suspicion is that this is what the UAE's move is really about and whY I think the US is giving at least tacit approval if they're not outright behind it.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#122

Post by saberience »

voidfunc wrote: post #11
dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?

You should visit Fujairah ! Huge facilities there.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#123

Post by pjc50 »

jmyeet wrote: post #103
woodruffw wrote: post #53

Serious question: what is OPEC’s influence in 2026? Most analyses I’ve read suggest that it’s essentially a defunct organization and has been since the 1980s, due to (1) a lack of geopolitical agreement between members, and (2) a lack of punishment/compensatory mechanisms for when individual members cheat on their commitments.

It's a good question. Let me answer the question this way: OPEC is the biggest single factor for the inflation shock of 2020 to 2022 yet weirdly hardly anybody talks about it. Let's rewind to March 2020 and the start of the pandemic. For a very brief period, April oil futures went negative . Technically, this was an extreme contango market. Oil producers were running out of places to store oil and nobody was buying.…

That really does highlight how badly the US is a controlled petrostate, and how different that is to past events where the US goes around demanding that OPEC raise production.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#124

Post by bilbo0s »

cogman10 wrote: post #104

> The UAE's exit from OPEC represents a win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who in a 2018 address to the U.N. General Assembly accused the organisation of "ripping off the rest of the world" by inflating oil prices. I can't see how it is actually a win for Trump. OPEC has mostly been a big partner with the US. They are the ones that have mandated using the dollar as the baseline currency for buying and selling OPEC…

In fairness to the UAE, of all the nations of the world, they're the ones who have lost the most economically speaking in the current unpleasantness.

It's kind of unfair.

If they can recoup some of those losses selling outside the system in Chinese currency, (or even in US currency), I have to imagine that would provide some ameliorative relief. It won't make them whole. They've got a lot of problems right now. But I mean, at least it starts them filling back in the giant hole that everyone else dug for them.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#125

Post by tcp_handshaker »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

You are missing this interesting, and confidential until now, deployment of Israeli forces in UAE:

"Israel sent "Iron Dome" system and troops to UAE" - https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae

Also...their central bank governor quietly asked the US Treasury for a dollar swap line...Combined with the Pakistan $3.5B recall and OPEC exit, that is three coordinated moves of a cashflow stressed country...and of course the US is being asked to extend taxpayer backed dollar credit to the same royal family that bought 49% of Trump's crypto company four days before inauguration...

https://fortune.com/2026/04/19/uae-talks-us-possible-financi...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#126

Post by marcosdumay »

energy123 wrote: post #17
kilroy123 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they just want to pump as much as they possibly can to cash out now while they can. The writing is on the wall for fossil fuels. Even _they_ are doubling down on solar power and switching away from fossil fuel. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab...

Earth is going to run out of oil in 50 years at current rates. One way or another, the status quo is going to change.

The prediction has been "by around 2050" since forever¹. Any time people find a way to increase reserves, flow rate increases to compensate, and the prediction stays approximately the same.

That's to say, I think you forgot to update your number when time passed.

1 - time started at the 1970s, that's a well known fact

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#127

Post by austin-cheney »

UAE is responsible for 12-13% of OPEC output as its third most productive member.

In 2019 Qatar left OPEC, but nobody cared because oil is less than 10% of their national fossil fuel output, which was about 2% of OPEC's oil output.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#128

Post by nimbius »

Havoc wrote: post #120
netdur wrote: post #109

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

exactly. this sounds like a third path where the UAE charts its own course, and that course increasingly looks paved in Yuan.

OPEC cartel membership didnt gain it access to Hormuz, and the US petrodollar promise to protect UAE states from aggression in exchange for trade in USD could not be upheld.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#129

Post by pjc50 »

mothballed wrote: post #101
weard_beard wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that unique historical, cultural, and even geographical factors have led to this outcome for Oman. I would encourage you to read up on the history of the country to understand the nuance here and not paint with such a broad brush.

Everyone has a unique "..." and a nuance here and a nuance there. UAE has a unique yada yada and also ended up with a surprisingly remarkably free economic index despite being a theocratic monarchy. As did the monarchy Lichtenstein, British controlled Hong Kong, and the one-party state of Singapore (technically democratic, in practice it functions like a recallable monarchy). Also of note the three richest countries…

I'm not sure what the conclusion is from this other than that the wealthy love having an autocratic tax haven microstate to park the money they earned from liberal democracies in.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#130

Post by g8oz »

pjc50 wrote: post #113
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Egypt were a democracy, its government would hate Israel. That's why the current dictator overthrew the last democracy and had its elected leader die in jail, and that same dictator is now supported heavily by US funding

The briefly elected Muslim Brotherhood government of Egypt was .. not as liberal as the Tahrir Square protests demanded.

And the UAE played a large role in covertly supporting the movement that toppled it.
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