My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?
Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?
UAE to leave OPEC
51–60 of 750 posts
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#52Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.
The very short explanation is that they kind of want to be not-Saud and has trouble cooperating with Saudi Arabia for a rather long time, not just over fossil fuels but also in Yemen. Recently the UAE faction in Yemen was forcefully reined in by the house of Saud, and OPEC kind of prioritises different things than the UAE, i.e. not pushing profits hard in the short to medium term instead focusing on stability and pre…
Didn’t we see reports that Saudi Arabia was supporting and pushing Israel and U.S. to attack Iran?
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#53Serious question: what is OPEC’s influence in 2026? Most analyses I’ve read suggest that it’s essentially a defunct organization and has been since the 1980s, due to (1) a lack of geopolitical agreement between members, and (2) a lack of punishment/compensatory mechanisms for when individual members cheat on their commitments.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#54Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…
> Egypt Already aligned with the KSA [0] > India Already aligned with the UAE [1] --- IMO the Pakistan aspect is overstated. This is a reversion to the norm of KSA-Pakistan relations before Imran Khan completely destroyed it by fully aligning behind Qatar and Turkiye when both were competing against KSA. [0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/egypt-says-it-shares... [1] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/india-…
> Egypt is aligned with the KSA
It’s complicated [1]. My low-key guess is cutting off Pakistan was intended to send a message to Cairo.
> Already aligned with the UAE
Aligning. To my understanding there isn’t a treaty yet.
> the Pakistan aspect is overstated
Pakistan isn’t the cause. It’s the canary. These moves happening in quick succession (strategically, over the last year, and tactically, in the timing of these announcements) speaks to previous assumptions being fair to be questioned.
[1] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/egypts-t...
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think they just want to pump as much as they possibly can to cash out now while they can. The writing is on the wall for fossil fuels. Even _they_ are doubling down on solar power and switching away from fossil fuel. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab...
Earth is going to run out of oil in 50 years at current rates. One way or another, the status quo is going to change.
The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first.
There are dozens of ways to increase production through world peace, better drilling technology and ideological conversion. Most of African production is well below geological potential (Libya being the easiest example, but also applies to Nigeria and the DRC etc). European shale is barely investigated, Russia is restricted by sanctions, the Middle East by war. Antartica and the Falklands are relatively unexplored but feasible.
However, the electrification of transport will erode demand in everything besides heavy shipping and jet fuel. Without that demand oil prices will crater.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#56Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.
The basics are the same as any other cartel. OPEC states cover enough of the supply-side of the market to be able to keep prices artificially high. UAE leaving means UAE can price below OPEC's target and take more of the market. OPEC will have to react and lower prices or concede some of the market. Does any of this matter if the major players can't ship oil through Hormuz? Who knows...
OPEC was never a very effective cartel in the first place. Many of the members routinely exceeded production targets. And for geological reasons it's not like most oil wells can even be throttled down.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#57Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…
Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.
I think there are only 3. Houthis (iran), PLC (saudi), and STC (UAE).
I guess Al-Qaeda and Isis are also there.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#58Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.
The goal is a full regional war orchestrated by Israel. That's what is playing out here. Slowly weakening remaining Arab states and setting them up to fight each other.
The various Arab tribes or kingdoms had a long and bloody history of fighting each other going back before Israel even existed.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#59Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…
Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.
Best of luck! These proxy wars have existed since the days of Assyria. 3000 years and running.
Kind of depressing thought actually.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#60I see this as a temporary action to contain oil prices, orchestrated by the US. I expect UAE to send signals that they will increase production considerably once situation allows. Whenever oil prices surge or 10Y yield touches 4.4% we get some action to contain them.
> I see this as a temporary action Unlikely. Out of OPEC’s twelve members [1], one is controlled by Trump, one—the third largest—is bombing the UAE and the other—the absolute largest—is on the other side of every proxy war the Emirates are invested in. As a multi-lateral organization it’s about as fucked as BRICS. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC
The cartel can't even self police. These are like climate pledges.
> since the 1980s [OPEC] largely failed to achieve its goals [...]
> members have cheated on 96% of their commitments.
> One large reason for the frequent cheating is that OPEC does not punish members