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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#361

Post by seviu »

reacharavindh wrote: post #332
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

This. I have been using anthropic and codex subs, on max. All this changed in June. We are clearly entering an era where we cannot rely on American models. As a solo developer I value reliability over performance. I cannot pay hundred of $, plus a lot of my private time figuring out how to properly use this technology, for it to be taken away within hours.

On top of that, the intelligence is being dialed down. Sonet 5 is a living proof of this. Fable has strong guardrails, but new Sonet is a dumbed down expensive model, which already falls behind GLM 5.2 and Kimi 2.7. I might go back to Claude since I know Fable is just a limited offer, and I am not going to pay for API usage. But what they are signaling with Sonet will also come to Opus. A lobotomized more expensive model.

I am honestly baffled how the current administration is giving the whole world, on a golden plate, to China. And they don't seem too bothered about it. They are living in their own bubble and reality distortion field I guess.

I could go on endless rant about Dario, but I feel I am so strongly biased now that my judgement might be clouded.

Time to move on

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#363

Post by xdertz »

vintagedave wrote: post #353
reacharavindh wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

> Mistral is just not competitive enough Does anyone know why? I was really excited when they emerged, but their models and targets don't seem to be quite in the same market.

Their target market is completely different. Anthropic and OpenAI try to build general AI that wins on all the benchmarks by throwing ungodly amounts of money at it.

Mistral focuses on long term b2b contracts and their proposition is that they fine tune their model to your needs with an added bonus of 'not dependent on America' in a politically tumultuous time.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#364

Post by lukan »

xmprt wrote: post #110
kcb wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really think China doesn't have massive amounts of capital expenditure related to AI? They're actively bootstrapping an entire chip industry.... https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billi...

Relatives vs absolutes. America will spend $500B and because of leaky pipes that's effectively 100B going directly to what's needed. China gets a lot of bang for their buck so even if they're spending a fraction of the US, they make it worth their money.

I believe China has leaky pipes as well.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#365

Post by anonzzzies »

PeterStuer wrote: post #341
Aurornis wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. The switching costs of changing LLM providers is as low as it gets. All the individuals and startups I know try different models all of the time, even down to the level of choosing which provider to use based on the task. Bigger companies move slower but only beca…

For real production I find the switching cost is not as trivial as you portray. Even going to a new model version in the same model family, say GPT-4o to GPT-5.2, a transition I just finished on a not too complicated application, requires extensive retesting and tweaking of prompts, guardrails and parameters.

Maybe OP meant switching in a coding harness way? Not an application using AI? I had similar issues like you in the latter case, but in the former it's trivial.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#366

Post by throwaw12 »

Aurornis wrote: post #269
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

> The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. The switching costs of changing LLM providers is as low as it gets. All the individuals and startups I know try different models all of the time, even down to the level of choosing which provider to use based on the task. Bigger companies move slower but only beca…

> The switching costs of changing LLM providers is as low as it gets

Not trivial, you would need to do lots of evals and prompt tuning when you switch models.

imagine what happens when you optimize your agent skills to the current model, and new model starts breaking. you would need to have versioning for your skills, serving different skills based on the model while you do A/B testing

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#367

Post by GTP »

rob74 wrote: post #339
miki123211 wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly! Even if you won't be able to use some model tomorrow, you can still make money by using it today! And in the age of limited compute, spiky workloads and constant outages, building a mechanism to fallback to a weaker model when your primary choice isn't available is smart anyway.

For many, that fallback mechanism is simply called Cursor - soon to be owned by Elon Musk. Which opens up a similar but slightly different can of worms...

Well, there are many alternatives to Cursor as well.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#368

Post by Sammi »

lelanthran wrote: post #329
Sammi wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a small software business owner in Europe. I have to assume my competition is willing to pay for any business advantage they can get. And so I also have to pay for the SOTA model, whatever it is.

> I'm a small software business owner in Europe. I have to assume my competition is willing to pay for any business advantage they can get. And so I also have to pay for the SOTA model, whatever it is. If you make money from doing anything like "produce software with as little human involvement as possible", then sure, you need SOTA models. In that case, though, the value you add is very little and you probably don't…

I'm the only dev. I simply don't have time for dealing with the code from non-SOTA models. I'm doing all I can to keep this business afloat.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#369

Post by InsideOutSanta »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #260
SwellJoe wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The good news (for you and most everyone other than the current leading AI companies), the gap between the SOTA and the near-frontiers is getting smaller every week or two. The leading Chinese models are only a few months behind now (GLM 5.2 tickles the tail of GPT 5.3 or 5.4 and Opus 4.6, according to benchmarks and the vibes among heavy users who've spent some time with it), where they were a couple of years behind…

This is nonsense. The gap between Chinese models and American frontier models is estimated at 10 months by Anthropic themselves, and it's growing. China has no flywheel for long-form agentic traces like Claude Code and its telemetry over its userbase (no one uses the Chinese harnesses yet). Most Chinese models are forced to price themselves significantly below cost to compete with the huge demand for bootleg claude t…

> The gap between Chinese models and American frontier models is estimated at 10 months by Anthropic themselves, and it's growing.

There's a lot of subjectivity in determining this, but I'm 100% sure that 10 months is wrong.

I don't know whether the gap is currently growing, but I'm not sure it matters. There are thresholds where models reach certain levels of usefulness. Opus 4.8, for example, is at a level where I can give it relatively vague input, and it can go for half an hour on its own and produce a high-quality PR.

If GLM reaches that level of capability and can do that task more cheaply than Anthropic's model, I will use GLM for that task, because that's a specific type of task I use models for. It doesn't really matter whether Anthropic also has a better model, because what does "better" mean in this context? It's a clearly defined task, and Opus 4.8 already does it at a very high level of quality.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#370

Post by genxy »

bredren wrote: post #173
ebbi wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably didn't kiss ass as much as most other tech CEOs.

I presume this was one of the lowest points of Tim Cook’s career: https://youtu.be/kSAGUjY2HIs?is=my5VbCBB5Ku-MlLX

Probably wishing it was twice as big, twice as gold, has that Chinese ram deal riding on it.
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