TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#361

Post by dannyw » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 8:21 AM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #51

sambull wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If foundations of geopolitics is anything real, then pitting the US vs China would be the ultimate best outcome. The book believes China is the true threat to Russia and "must, to the maximum degree possible, be dismantled". As secondary goal would be the disruption of the US which also has been propping China up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...

The description of that book reads like it was penned by a highschooler who went on a camping trip took some acid and wrote down how they’d conquer the world by channeling their version of Stalin.

Yet so many of its proposals came into reality over the past two decades.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#362

Post by magnusmagnusson » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 8:31 AM UTC

peteretep wrote: post #341

0xy wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.

> The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary Under a normal president, sure. Under this one, who can’t decide if he hates China or loves Xi? All fucking bets are off

The previous Presidents of United States sold American manufacturing to China and you propose they would have been more willing to defend Taiwan in case of theoretical Chinese takeover?

Delusional. Terminal brainrot from politics.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#363

Post by AnthonyMouse » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 9:13 AM UTC

g8oz wrote: post #307

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interesting thing is how they're succeeding. We haven't exactly seen a resurgence of the Klan of late, you might notice. What's happening instead is that anything that can even be vaguely construed as racist, even if it doesn't hold up under scrutiny -- especially then -- becomes the subject of mob focus and attack. Because if you can convince the mob to "righteously" attack innocent targets then you get firework…

>>We haven't exactly seen a resurgence of the Klan of late, you might notice. Are you serious? While the Klan may be played out new fascist/racist groups are definitely on the march. Google "Boogaloo boys" as just one example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boogaloo_movement :

> The specific ideology of each group varies, and views on topics such as race differ widely. Some are white supremacist or neo-Nazi groups who believe that the impending unrest will be a race war; other groups condemn racism and white supremacy.

> opinions on racism and attitudes towards law enforcement are among the views that differ the most between groups in the movement

> 4chan

> The term boogaloo alludes to the 1984 cult sequel Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo

> Hawaiian shirts

> satirical

It's the exact thing you would expect when the other side is desperately searching for an enemy to smash. Literally attention-seeking trolls from 4chan show up in a place and manner that causes people to pay attention to them.

Then law enforcement will take them seriously, because they have to, which gives them exactly the false legitimacy they're after.

And in any event not much of a big bad fascist/racist group when they can't even agree whether they're racists and the thing they do agree on is that they're anti-government, i.e. the complete opposite of fascism.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#364

Post by zurn » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 9:18 AM UTC

robert_foss wrote: post #19

chvid wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess time will tell.

The patterning machines used for the leading node isn't exported to China due to export restrictions. Only the Dutch company ASML is able to manufacture these patterning machines.

Dutch or US export restrictions, or both?

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#365

Post by jacquesm » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 9:20 AM UTC

paulmd wrote: post #113

jacquesm wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's so funny. ASML holds the market for a reason, this is not so simple. You could probably do it on a Friday night but the Chinese may take a bit longer than that.

the question is - how much of that "reason" is protectionism (patents, etc)? if you no longer care about pissing off the US and EU (because they're up in your business anyway) then maybe it doesn't matter so much if you violate those patents. Same thing as with Taiwan's "special trade status", Trump thinks that revoking their status will get China to leave them alone, because he has a very simplistic bullying-oriente…

Patents have never stopped China from obtaining something if they felt it was strategic. The fact that they haven't done it yet is proof positive - to me - that it isn't all that easy. Note that this is not for lack of trying.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#366

Post by ksec » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 9:24 AM UTC

Xixi wrote: post #350

robert_foss wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SMIC isn't close to the same node as TSMC. A competitive high-end SOC could not be manufacured by them.

When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... Yet I think it's important to keep some perspective: this Chinese/US spat is not a championship where a winner will be declared…

>TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are.

I think this doesn't paint an accurate picture. TSMC were "high end" sans Intel. Since you cant Fab with Intel, TSMC was the best any Fabless Vendor could get, now it just happen TSMC is also the best in industry.

Compared to SMIC, they aren't even close to TSMC, nor Samsung, or even Global Foundry. In Tech lead, Volume and yield. To put things into perspective, they will have to accelerate at 2x the speed of current industry's rate for the next 5 years in other to be level with TSMC.

SMIC's 14nm is still no where near Samsung, or even Global Foundry ( GF ). And GF has been shipping 14nm in volume for nearly 5 years now.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#367

Post by DiogenesKynikos » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 9:26 AM UTC

knzhou wrote: post #30

mytailorisrich wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the past they could get enough of the right people to move to China as they did with OLED. TSMC was founded by a "returnee" as well. Obviously he and his family were rather anti-communist (his father was a ROC official) so he fled from mainland China to Hongkong then the US during the Chinese Civil War. He built a career at TI then returned to China (Taiwan) and founded TSMC when the government was investing in…

> Then he returned to mainland China in 1955. It's worth remembering that he did that because he was pushed out, during the Red Scare.

Qian Xuesen was stripped of his security clearance in 1950, as a result of the Red Scare, meaning he couldn't work on his areas of expertise any more. He tried to leave the US, but was arrested on his way out and kept under house arrest for 5 years. That's the thanks he got for helping found the US rocketry program, so when he was released, he founded China's rocketry program.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#368

Post by supernova87a » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 9:43 AM UTC

0xy wrote: post #325

_7fvc wrote: post #260

I see this news as a loss for the US. It has to resort to regulations to stop TSMC from doing business with Huawei. When you can't incentivize your ally, that means your opponent's business is still very attractive. Regulations will only cripple your ally. Taiwan may comply on the outside. But inside, they'll cut under-the-table deals with China. They'll find loop holes to skirt regulations. Taiwan seems to be headin…

The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.

You think the US is prepared to use nuclear weapons in a conflict involving Taiwan? Over semiconductor chips? (or are you using "nuclear option" in the rhetorical sense?) Or, given your next sentence says "if they don't..." I suppose you're only offering a non-expert sports-fan level of opinion.

Well, my opinion is that the US government, and the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any kind of support for significant military force over any issue that is complex and intangible, for the last 15 years. Name one recent strategic issue aside from Iraq/Afghanistan that the US and allies haven't backed down from (involving military force)? If it doesn't involve weapons of mass destruction, an imminent danger, or American lives being threatened, our collective attention span doesn't care to cash in our chips. And unlike oil, semiconductors don't hit big conservative wallets and their motivations.

I don't think America (in the popular sense) knows or cares what Taiwan is, to be honest. We can't even get our shit together to defend our supply of toilet paper and cloth masks. So I have strong doubts that a conflict over such a technical / intangible issue would rile up America's political will enough to convince people to go to war. And especially not with this administration's political skills.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#369

Post by ksec » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 10:05 AM UTC

phkahler wrote: post #37

monocasa wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has been making great progress on Chinese built EUV patterning machines.

That would not surprise me. Got any links describing progress?

Most of those links are in Chinese and State sponsored. So hard to judge whether they are real or not.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#370

Post by ksec » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 10:18 AM UTC

robert_foss wrote: post #19

chvid wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess time will tell.

The patterning machines used for the leading node isn't exported to China due to export restrictions. Only the Dutch company ASML is able to manufacture these patterning machines.

I dont think there is an official export control for ASML yet. US are pressuring it, but it is not confirmed.

In reality ASML doesn't need that export restriction to stop shipping to China. Their EUV TwinScan production capacity is behind schedule, with or without the pandemic. And with factory closing and now not working in 100% capacity the delay will be even longer.

The next two years order are already booked by TSMC and Samsung Foundry, and looking at Intel's roadmap I would not be surprised if 2023 is also filled. Samsung are looking at EUV for their NAND and DRAM.

All ASML has to do is to reply SMIC they are all sold out. Which itself isn't a lie and also an Industry standard excuses for not shipping to a competitor.