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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most severe cases require trained medical staff. Since ~20% of infections requires hospitalization, no healthcare system is prepared for an exponential rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Most fatalities are from pneumonia. Lots of details are available all over. You may want to read up.

My point is that medical staff are trained to respond to many things. Training newbies to respond to one thing would probably be easy and fast. Especially if most people just need fluids, oxygen, and aspirin. Burning out doctors to maximize survival rates up front is... bad

If all you needed is something that a person with no training could handle they’d send you home and have a family member care for you.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#362
post #275
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely random and off-topic. I'm in the US and used to 12-hour time. I personally prefer 24-hour time, and am comfortable with 18:00 or similar for a time indicator. I don't know that I've ever seen a 24-hour time with am/pm attached to it. Is this common?

I say 6pm but write 18:00. I imagine things like that can very easily lead to awkward translations. I've found countries (Slovakia springs to mind) that would say "a quarter of 8" for 7:15 (think "7 hours and a quarter of the eighth hour") and "half 8" for 7:30. Time can translate in rather interesting ways.

In Russian at least, a closer translation would be “half of 8th” because it means something like “half of the 8th hour [has passed].”

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#363
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please note that Lombardy has a very very good health service. The OECD put a score on this [1]: 9.9/10. This is in the top 5% across all regions. Other european regions seem to have lower average scores and their governments are not taking serious actions. [2] How the US is reacting from my perspective (italian confined near Rome) seems borderline madness. Something about this situation confuses me a lot. [1] https:…

Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#364
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.

The other thing is the incubation period is around 5 days. So really the numbers are at least 5 days behind.

And of course in the US there are not as many testing kits as in other countries, so the numbers are basically 3 months behind.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#365
post #10
post #6

For anyone claiming that this is just a flu: I've never heard of an entire country being shut down because of the flu.

I've never heard of 14 people dying in a 120-bed nursing home of the seasonal flu in a 3 week time span either, but the Coronavirus is making that happen in Kirkland, WA right now. Actually, about 30 people have died, but since they don't have enough tests, they can't say that it was Coronavirus. My wife is an administrator at a Nursing facility that is much larger, and this many people DYING so quickly is terrifying…

Please do not consider this comment to be commentary on the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, especially considering the situation at the nursing home in Washington state.

Out of curiosity, I tried to find examples where many people died of a flu outbreak in nursing homes. Here are some articles I found:

This article describes a nursing home in Sheffield where 9 of 60 residents died from the flu during the 1997--1998 season: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e54b/27d527dd0612d0899f22ea...

This article describes a nursing home in Honolulu where 6 of 37 residents died from the flu during the 1989--1990 season: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7657975

This article describes a nursing home in Los Angeles where 8 of 101 residents died from RSV in 1979: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6527041

This article describes a nursing home in Devon where 4 of 50 residents died from RSV within one week: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6736667

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#366

This is an account from one of the doctors in Italy. https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753... Read the whole thing, but this passage in particular is just chilling. "5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are start…

I fixed the formatting, typos, and expanded the jargon:

From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:

I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Australia and don't make the mistake to think that what is happening here is happening in a 3rd world country. The current situation is difficult to imagine, and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by COVID-19, they are running 200% capacity.

We've stopped all routine, all Operating Rooms have been converted to Intensive Care Rooms and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or stroke. There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above an oyxgen mask.

Patients above 65, or younger patients with comorbidities, are not even assessed by Intensive Care. I am not saying not tubed, I'm saying not assessed and no staff attends to them when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can, but they are starting to get sick themselves and are emotionally overwhelmed.

My friends call me in tears, because they see people dying in front of them and they can only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on ventillation. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won't be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

1) A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid the Emergency Department. People still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panic.

2) Some moderate respiratory failures and a few severe ones that need intubation, but regular access to Emergency Departments is significantly reduced so everything looks great.

3) Tons of patients with moderate respiratory failure, that over time deteriorate to saturate intensive care first, then intubation equipment, then CPAP hoods, then even O2 masks.

4) Staff gets sick, so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes from all the other causes that can't be treated properly.

Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe. If the governments won't do this at least keep your family safe: your loved ones with a history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to. Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think "that's bad dude" and then go out for dinner because you think you'll be safe.

We have seen it, you won't be safe if you don't take it seriously. I really hope it won't be as bad as here but prepare.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#367
post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

It might not be. Lower population density and a lack of public transportation. I would worry about NYC though.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You talk about the MSM as if it was a thing, and not a term of propaganda. It may explain the confusion.

You seriously don't think that modern news outlets don't have a consistent, left-leaning, anti-Trump agenda? Perhaps you've been drinking too much of their coolaid. "Mainstream media" was a term long before people on the right started complaining about it.

Mainstream media tends to target their audience. Their audience is Americans who by popular vote are left of the government on average, and a higher percentage of them that live in cities, which adds to the left bias yet again. So no big surprise that most of the big MSM outlets appear left-leaning if you personally are right of center at all.

That doesn't mean Trump is doing a good job.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#369
post #2

For anybody living in quarantined areas of Italy. How much has your daily life been affected?

N.italy, all ok. Less people around, shops ok: i withdraw cash every day, rather than waiting for the gov to do it for me. Which they will, then they'll find a away [o line their pockets with it. Nb never voted, never will, but italians are already being political about this. Seen a few comments here, too. The real impact will be when the rest of eu gets hit. At least day2day italians know you can't blame any single person/ location as you don't know how you'll get infected.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most severe cases require trained medical staff. Since ~20% of infections requires hospitalization, no healthcare system is prepared for an exponential rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Most fatalities are from pneumonia. Lots of details are available all over. You may want to read up.

My point is that medical staff are trained to respond to many things. Training newbies to respond to one thing would probably be easy and fast. Especially if most people just need fluids, oxygen, and aspirin. Burning out doctors to maximize survival rates up front is... bad

Aspirin isn't an effective treatment.
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