351–360 of 363 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're not considering video which OpenAI opted out of when they retired Sora. Generative video requires significantly more computing power and energy than generative text. OpenAI is fucked, compute is still needed, it's just them that isn't.
There would also need to exist sufficient demand for video, which hasn’t happened yet.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you use coding agents? Just curious bc from my experience using coding agents, open ai’s codex is neck and neck with anthropic’s claude code if not ahead. I wouldn’t agree that OpenAI hasn’t done anything since ChatGPT since codex is my daily driver for software engineering
It's kinda nuts to me how people can act like Claude is lightyears ahead of OpenAI models. Sure, it's one thing to simply have a preference or claim that Claude does some things better, but in reality they are both about as effective at doing the same job. I've long preferred GPT models because they know better how to shut up and don't seem to overthink as much as Claude, but I'm under no illusions that if OpenAI wen…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value. The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of compute…
> if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can How? The hardware is in OpenAI's datacenters. Does Nvidia have a couple hundred semi trucks, contractors, and IT technicians, to repo the hardware and resell it to someone else before it's lost most of its value? These chips will be replaced approx every 3-4 years. So if OpenAI tanks, after Nvidia pays for and waits for the process to collect the hardware, they then…
Via logistics contracts, yes.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
To make things worse, hardware prices have spiked, due to AI companies. Fairly sure data center construction costs are also going up (they require so many resources that everything is constrained at the moment, especially electricity production). So I don't understand in what world these frontier AI companies can somehow become profitable. The basic tech they're using is basically the same. Yes, around the edges ther…
It's capitalism run amuck --- and on an epic scale. China is the one that is really in the driver's seat here. They have the opportunity and the ability to nullify/wipe out our huge investment in AI.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It absolutely is. Similar to the way banks create money [1]. The commitments support credit that wouldn't exist without it. Making a loan/offering credit isn't automatically money creation - the amount of money in the system before and after the loan might be the same. Haven't been following Nvidia all that closely, but it seems a little bit unlikely that they're a commercial bank. Financial chicanery they may be d…
> Making a loan/offering credit isn't automatically money creation The Fed can limitlessly increase monetary base (MB) to increase M1. Non-bank lenders create M4 which turns into M2 through the money markets which turns into M1 through the banks. More convoluted and more limited, by design. But the net effect is the same–more M1. More broadly: when you open a bar tab, you're literally creating money, even if it never…
Or I suppose I should spend more time with an open bar tab come tax time.
The monetary aggregates are things that are theoretically equivalent to creating money, but I'm going to challenge whether it is proper to compare M4 activity to the fed balance sheet. One of those entities is involved in actual money creation. One of them is hyper-privileged money creation that is more impactful and less comparable to other forms.
> worth around $5.4trn Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.) The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy. The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or othe…
> Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy. nvidia's money either comes from equity, or from debt. This means this money is "created" not from nothing, but from future commitments (ala, debt repayments, or promise of profits), which is not the same as what comes out of the Fed. The Fed printing has no backing behind it - it is definitely inflationary if they do it. Investment from nvidia (or any o…
I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
like can we get some new more interesting entertainment? maybe that's just me but all games look and feel the same now or worse dumbed down sometimes where even puzzles in the game have like basic or grindy aspect to them ...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them. Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly. AI has completely broken the PC gamin…
Why would AMD willingly go into a low margin business with the consumer when they can focus on the enterprise? There’s currently a huge for diversification from NVIDIA because this is a long term deployment and they would rather not be beholden to NVIDIA if they can
You could make the same argument for why is AMD still making processors for the consumer market or APU’s for the PlayStation/Xbox current gen and more importantly next gen.
In a gold rush as a shovel seller it’s dangerous to only be selling shovels when the gold rush can end/reduce at any point.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
“as long as it’s cash flow continues” is doing a lot of optimistic heavy lifting. The whole premise of the circular financing worry is that Nvidia sits in the middle of all the guarantees made to companies like OpenAI. If any of those companies become insolvent, Nvidia is on the hook for it. Also Nvidia isn’t really creating money. The 500B number is third party capital that already exists (BX, Apollo, etc).
> heavy lifting Load bearing, heavy lifting... Your comment wasn't LLM-written, either. I think we're starting to see LLMisms infect human writing. I might try to start speaking like this and see if anyone notices. It could be a good gag.