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China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

reuters.com

351–360 of 560 posts

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#351

If US or China stock market was to go down, govt will immediately infuse such massive cash that things would be back up in no time. I'm wondering this is why there had been no recession past the entire decade and very likely none ahead. Somehow we have arrived at economic prosperity level where enough wealth is "buffered" to smooth out downturns.

I think the biggest counter-argument to this is the problem of "mal-investment". In a lot of ways the business cycle operates as an explore-exploit optimizer.

During boom periods, credit conditions are loose. Which allows for a large degree of innovation with new and speculative business models. This is important because as conditions and technologies change, the frontier space of what's viable needs to be explored. Tomorrow's economic titans are today's wild-eyed entrepreneurs.

However most of these crazy ideas turn out to be just that. That's where the importance of recessions come in. Credit crunches and market downturns impose economic and efficiency disciplines. Firms that were coasting by on good conditions without delivering real productivity gains are culled by the downturn.

The entire phase of the cycle is important to maintain a healthy economic ecosystem. My fear is that if we banish recessions to the dustbin of history, we'll find ourselves increasingly burdened with bad investments as a larger and larger share of the capital base. Instead of getting written off during a downturn, jubilant markets will just keep throwing good money after bad managers, broken business models and overhyped vaporware.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#352
post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

This might be similar, but I see zero chance of Xi's power taking a hit. For as long as party's institutes are intact, he will be there. Some people began to speculate that Xi wasn't seen for the last 3 days, and sudden activity of "party elders," but I bet this is just an enormous amounts of wishful thinking showing up. Xi's "system" has an expiration date attached, but it's not tomorrow. Following on that Gorbachev…

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Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Prices of houses may be high but affordability is not because of cheap financing." A 7 fig house still costs 7 figures. In many countries you can not lock in the interest rates for 30 years but they get re-adjusted after 10 or 15 years. Could be a bad awakening for some. "Asset prices are bounded by the cost of producing new houses" 1. "asset prices" are not only houses. But also Stocks for example 2. The most expen…

The cost of owning a house includes the cost of financing, you can't get around that. Stocks can also be created. Land is a hard one. We have no choice but to share it somehow. But overly tight money is really really not the way to make land affordable. Reducing land prices through overly tight money is basically price control through making people too unemployed and too poor to have demand for land. It's an exceptio…

"But overly tight money is really really not the way to make land affordable."

It is the other way around. Please google "asset price inflation".

"It's an exceptionally destructive approach." Only in your head my friend.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#354

If US or China stock market was to go down, govt will immediately infuse such massive cash that things would be back up in no time. I'm wondering this is why there had been no recession past the entire decade and very likely none ahead. Somehow we have arrived at economic prosperity level where enough wealth is "buffered" to smooth out downturns.

> I'm wondering this is why there had been no recession past the entire decade and very likely none ahead. I'm taking your "we've solved the business cycle!" comment as my sell signal. Everything is rosy until it isn't. I have a very opposite, pessimistic view, that this great fear of even the slightest downtown means we're just putting off the day of reckoning until it really comes crashing down. The fact is the pro…

You're absolutely right. You don't have to believe me but I called the last recession. It's not bad news that's frightening. It's a disproportionate government and market reaction. Governments making a lot of noise to protect weak hands. There are a lot of weak hands, many created since we "survived" the last scare, and it's not going to take much to bust them. Stay safe everybody and enjoy living history as usual.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#355
post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Katrina was when I realized how silly it is to think our government would ever deal effectively with a major disaster" It's funny because the very idea that 'the government will save us from a big disaster' is a fairly new concept. Some governments are 'kind of' prepared for some kinds of problems - i.e. the Swiss are prepared for some kinds of invasions, surely the Dutch have preparations for floods. But for unfore…

> for unforeseen disasters (the levy breach in New Orleans) Credible sources, including FEMA, predicted that one years in advance. Check out the October 2004 issue of National Geographic: > The storm hit Breton Sound with the fury of a nuclear warhead, pushing a deadly storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain. The water crept to the top of the massive berm that holds back the lake and then spilled over. Nearly 80 percent…

I remember watching the New Orleans breach in TV in Ireland where I was at the time and it was a bit odd - the only US news we had pretty much was CNN and that had been going on about the levys being likely to be breached about every 20 mins for the 24 to 48 hours previously. And then they breached. And then the president came on saying no one could have predicted they would be breached. Which was odd - I guess no one unless they'd turned on TV anywhere on the planet...

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#356
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason why Americans deny that they are fed propaganda is because the kind of propaganda that exists in America is subtle. It doesn't involve jailing or killing dissidents. Your post (and the parent post) omitted that distinction. My argument is that this distinction matters.

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We have huge problems with policing in this country, no doubt. This is simply not comparable to the systemic oppression and persecution of political and ethnic undesirables in places like China.

Note that millions of us Americans who are disgusted with systemic racism and authoritarian overreach in our country are free to discuss it openly, assemble in opposition, and vote our conscience. Do you imagine a person in China is likewise free to engage in a public discussion about Uyghur concentration camps?

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#357
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask As someone who never been there (or in China for that matter), is "face mask" a synonym for something or you mean literally a face mask? Don't think it's mandatory to wear face masks, just that a lot of people do it, right? If someone knows better, please correct me

Beijing is notorious for its air pollution. It is a literal mask AFAICT, to block off pollutants

Since 2017 the air quality has been greatly improved for Beijing. I just spent about three weeks there and the sky is surprisingly blue

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#358
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I mean it’s not like a viral epidemic can’t originate from other countries. In authoritative countries the messenger of bad news tends to be 'disciplined', and so bad news is not delivered. It still exists, but no one wants to be the individual that creates the (negative) feedback loop that may be contrary to the diktat that came down from on high. Of course hiding bad news happens in less authoritative countries a…

I wonder if there isn’t a certain element of hindsight bias here. Now it’s clear that more action should’ve been taken earlier. But knowing the panic this has caused, not to mention the economic, global logistics and travel impacts I don’t know if it was such an obvious situation at the time. Especially when the vitality, severity and mechanism of transmission etc weren’t clear. CCP policy and behavioral patterns asi…

I can understand also the need to prevent public panic. But I can not understand the motivation of organizing big public activities when knowing a dangerous virus is in the ran. I am referring to the so called "40k family banquet" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kft21UdBFI). Permit me copy my other comment here to explain what it is:

I read on twitter around Dec 31 that there was such a virus spreading in Wuhan. Around Jan 1, the Wuhan police dep publicly condemned 8 person (the origin of the twitter news) for spreading this information and called it a rumour. Then the gov did everything to hide info and did nothing to prevent its spreading before around Jan 2x. They behaved even like they want to spread it as much as possible because just about two to five days before they made the announcement of the virus outbreak, the Wuhan gov organized a so called 40k family new year banquet -- around 40k Wuhan local families were concentrated together to have a banquet to celebrate the coming Chinese new year. All the events I cited here can be found on China's own newspaper and tv recordings.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#359
post #8

A friend of mine is leaving HK today - he lives there, so this is not a casual trip abroad. He said the level of fear is making it impossible to live there as a single person. The shops and restaurants are closed. Even his own employer shut its doors indefinitely - and they’re just a video production company. The virus won’t be what ruins China. It’s the panic itself.

Speaking of Hong Kong, what impact is this outbreak having on the conflict with Beijing?

The protests died out as soon as the as outbreak started. Protesters avoid congregating to avoid transmission, and the news cycle has moved on. Carrie Lam must be breathing a sigh of relief.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#360
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would just like to point out that this is exactly, almost word for word and certainly in spirit, how anti-Americanism is expressed e.g. in Europe (where I grew up, born 1982). It's crossing a line where one's ethnocentrism paints the other not just as "different" but fundamentally "lesser": e.g. many Europeans consider the USA to be "ethically behind" comparably rich countries for its arguable lack of reverence for…

The OP's criticism was directed at the CCP, not the nationals of the PRC. You can dislike a government without having a negative opinion of its people.

This is precisely one of the assumptions that I am, humbly, questioning. It's more complex than that. Are the French so unlike all their governments and regimes? Are Americans that much unlike their leaders and political system? Is any society, really, thus separable in parts, beyond the abstraction of analysis? And what happens to ideas formed abstractly, in a vacuum, as they land in reality?

I mean, you can make the factual, scientific category; you may reason about it and build models that work to some extent; but reality is never clear cut, it's always hyper-complex in comparison of any short statement (hence why it's hard to meaningfully discuss such concepts in less than articles, ideally books). That's one my take-aways from a few years of sociology. Some things you just can't condense, even if it makes for a witty and intuitive proposition. Rigid values, as opposed to starting from relativity, really is the enemy of the thinker in a complex/chaotic environment such as those attemptedly described by the social sciences.

Just my 2cts. Claiming that "politicians are A, but the people are B!" is already a dubious proposition that lacks substance beneath its romantic appeal; but generalized to a massively distributed yet pyramidal political system of 1.5 billion people, it's sociologically nonsensical.

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