China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen • Hacker News Board

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#211

Post by celticmusic » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:22 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #119

daenz wrote: post #31

Maybe this is demonstrates an immediate consequence of having a people (mainland China, not necessarily HK) that is governed primarily by fear: reactions of extreme subordination, which keep things running "smoothly" under normal conditions, can threaten the whole system to collapse under abnormal conditions.

Maybe outside of China we see it as "ruled by fear", but that's really not the case in China, at least for the majority: China doesn't try to make it's citizens afraid. Quite the opposite. Their modus operandi is "move along, nothing to see here, everything is fine." Indeed, that was their initial message to the public for this virus. So, the problem and partial cause of panic is when there is a problem that is very…

> Indeed, that was their initial message to the public for this virus.

You're going to have to source that because I have a friend who lives in China and he was telling me from the start that China was surprisingly open about all of it.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#212

Post by maratd » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:22 PM UTC

basch wrote: post #164

adnzzzzZ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of analysis I'm seeing everywhere is so misguided. The reason the local government didn't report on the situation accurately and even punished some journalists for speaking about it is a flaw of how their country is run and how their command structure incentives are poorly set up. This isn't a new problem and it's why we have converged to a different system in most of the West. The government coming in late…

Is it any different than Flint Michigan? Except that Obama came in and drank the water.

This sort of what-about-ism doesn't address the core point. That top-down command and control systems are vulnerable to precisely this type of outcome. Providing a single western example of a much milder localized circumstance doesn't address anything except deflect attention from the main point.

Flint was a local event. This is consuming all of China.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#213

Post by PeterisP » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:25 PM UTC

cltsang wrote: post #24

Pardon my lack of economics knowledge. They may be able to keep the stock afloat for a few days, then what's next? Where will the money eventually go? How can this help when economic activities halt?

When economic activity is temporarily unexpectedly reduced, companies start running out of cash / working capital.

Injecting extra liquidity means that companies are able to get short-term loans to cover expenses and continue functioning, instead of going bankrupt during the chaos (which would also facilitate bankrupting their suppliers and creditors).

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#214

Post by ptx » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:27 PM UTC

ithinkinstereo wrote: post #209

ptx wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The response might not have needed to be as massive if the initial reaction of the Chinese authorities hadn't been to send the police after the doctors who discovered the problem[1] and try to hush it up. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/asia/china-coronavi...

Maybe, maybe not. I think the contrast to past epidemics is stark and shows the government is willing to learn and improve. In any case, the comparison to Chernobyl and 80s USSR is pretty off-base, wouldn't you agree?

The comparison fits in that a tendency to hide bad news (i.e. swallow errors and suppress warnings) erodes trust in (edit: and effectiveness of) the system.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#215

Post by baybal2 » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:28 PM UTC

toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

This might be similar, but I see zero chance of Xi's power taking a hit. For as long as party's institutes are intact, he will be there.

Some people began to speculate that Xi wasn't seen for the last 3 days, and sudden activity of "party elders," but I bet this is just an enormous amounts of wishful thinking showing up.

Xi's "system" has an expiration date attached, but it's not tomorrow.

Following on that Gorbachev analogy, the Unior really started to crumble during late Breznev for reasons well documented by historians.

Basically, after Brenzhen loyalists, who mostly were his contemporaries (frail 70-80 and even 90 year olds,) started to drop like flies, a whole truckload of political adventurists, with rogue 3 letter services in particular, took advantage of that to grab power. This in a few years term led to the Union turning ungovernable, and ultimately falling apart.

The ultimate proof to that is that pretty much all across the former union, the power went to ex-KGB or men from other 3 letter services.

Even as early as Gorbachev's first year, there were officials who were publicly disobeying his direct orders. The last generation of Union's leadership was hamstrung even before the power was formally passed to it.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#216

Post by afarrell » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:28 PM UTC

ausjke wrote: post #203

pdonis wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By "our government" do you just mean the Federal government? Or do you mean all levels of government? The mayor of New Orleans had parking lots full of empty school buses and claimed he had no way to evacuate citizens. The governor of Louisiana whined and wrung her hands instead of doing anything. The Federal response was far from perfect but it was much more effective than the state or local response.

exactly, USA is _united_ states, crisis like Katrina really should be dealt by the local governments first-hand, with federal help on its way. it's very different from China's system, where everyone has to get approvals from the central government.

> really should be dealt by the local governments first-hand, with federal help on its way

Add "And some overarching flexible framework for regular coordination-practice and preparation-funding" and this seems quite clear.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#217

Post by Fjolsvith » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:30 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #158

notyourwork wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding was the US was not doing this to the extent China was. There construction projects to build ghost cities.

As a Californian, I would love if we were mismanaged in a way that produced excess housing!

You might be surprised to learn why there's excess housing. Young men who are courting a lady need two or three houses to have any chance of winning her hand:

Why 50 Million Chinese Homes are Empty - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5SE47Xjx2Q&t=2s

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#218

Post by afarrell » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:30 PM UTC

prewett wrote: post #74

capableweb wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> being stuck in my apartment, nowhere to eat, drink, or even walk without an appropriate face mask As someone who never been there (or in China for that matter), is "face mask" a synonym for something or you mean literally a face mask? Don't think it's mandatory to wear face masks, just that a lot of people do it, right? If someone knows better, please correct me

No, literally a face mask, so that people know that you aren't going to give them the virus. I don't know if it's mandatory to wear a face mask. But it doesn't seem like it would be too different from what always happens in Chinese New Year in Beijing. All the shopkeepers aren't from Beijing originally, so they close shop for two weeks and go back to their hometown. There's pretty much no restaurants open, except may…

> All the shopkeepers aren't from Beijing originally, so they close shop for two weeks and go back to their hometown.

Sounds like an opportunity for someone to open some bagel shops.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#219

Post by mcculley » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:31 PM UTC

alasdair_ wrote: post #109

unforeseen9991 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but that's just due to the meth

It’s mostly due to laws that make all police blotters (records of arrests and other incidents) in Florida open to the public immediately (and thus easy for journalists to mine for interesting stories). Couple that with a huge population and something weird will happen most days.

As a 48 year old native Floridian who has traveled to less crazy states and countries, I do not believe our open records policies entirely explain the documented weirdness. The native born are a minority. Most of our population came here from somewhere else. I have been to the kinds of places from which they emigrate. To survive and thrive in places where it snows for a good chunk of the year requires a certain amount of keeping-your-shit-togetherness. In my experience, many immigrate to Florida or stay here because one can live relatively cheaply without ever planning ahead. This tilts our demographics toward the kinds of people who end up in Florida Man stories.

Re: China to inject $174B of liquidity on Monday as markets reopen

#220

Post by reaperducer » Sun, Feb 02, 2020, 8:32 PM UTC

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #161

toyg wrote: post #130

Gorbachev used to say that Chernobyl was where the USSR really started to crumble. The disaster made clear how morally bankrupt and technically incompetent the system really was, wiping out any remaining goodwill or trust. Similarly, Katrina was where the semi-fascist US consensus under GW Bush went to pieces. I suspect China will experience a similar moment at some point. This might well be it.

Katrina was when I realized how silly it is to think our government would ever deal effectively with a major disaster and how vulnerable we are.

Katrina was when I realized how silly it is to think our government would ever deal effectively with a major disaster and how vulnerable we are.

Having been through three major hurricanes and 9/11, I'm not as skeptical as you. Everything is local. If the local authorities are prepared, things will go better. The feds are backup for when things get too big to handle.

Looking back, after the initial shock wore off, the on-the-street response in the hours after 9/11 was very interesting. It was clear that NYC and its neighbors have many layers of plans for major emergencies. Do they have everything covered? Probably not, which is only logical since you can't plan for the unknown. But a good deal of faith was earned that day.