341–350 of 465 posts
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Any idea what the rates are for the corona virus?
Based on "all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020": 11% "died of multiple organ failure" and 23% are in intensive care unit https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
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It's like a worse version of the flu. The way that you'll die from the flu is getting a secondary pneumonia infection from Staph aureus or Steptococcus pneumonia, the virus just makes you more susceptible and weaker. The major lethal consequence for this virus in the Coronavirus family is Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). A strong outcome for this is we knock you out, put a tube down your throat, and have y…
If you have that ventilator, can you still die? How? Can the "respiratory distress" get worse without limit?
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Because now they have to go through all the paperwork, waiting and hassle to document that they "clearly" are essential... several times. Bureaucracy is never, ever frictionless.
That may well be the case. I don't have any firsthand knowledge of the process. Do you?
How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Based on "all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020": 11% "died of multiple organ failure" and 23% are in intensive care unit https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
You've quoted this deeply misleading statistic without context more than once. Please desist!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
New data, based on "all confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 to Jan 20, 2020": 11% "died of multiple organ failure" and 23% are in intensive care unit https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
Interesting, however: > Most patients were men, with a mean age of 55·5 years (SD 13·1; table 1). 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases, including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, endocrine system disease [and some others] The findings conclude: > In general, the characteristics of patients who died were in line with the early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia Also the group was s…
I doubt that the 50 years old Hospital doctor who died had any serious per-existing health condition. In fact, you could argue hat most doctors have a stronger immune system than average since they are exposed to more germs due to their profession. So this 50y old professional dropping dead is a bad sign! (and hands off to him for his bravery in doing his job).
You could only argue that he cough the strain very early. A virus jumping into a new species is more aggressive at the beginning, later it adopts more to the new host and becomes less aggressive.
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The numbers we're getting out of China are a mess and almost entirely useless. There are reports of hospitals turning people away unless they a very sick, and also not testing every ill patient because they're overwhelmed. I've see death certificates posted online with "viral pneumonia" because they aren't able to test everyone - and certainly don't bother testing those who have already died. The errors are both ways…
> I've see death certificates posted online with "viral pneumonia" Would that not be a proper reason for a corona virus caused death? Or does it have to be specific if the exact cause is known?
Either way, it makes the data far less useful.
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Looking only at hospitalized populations creates severe selection bias when applied to the question people want answered here, namely "If I get nCOV, what's my chance of dying?" Only the most severe cases a physician sees end up hospitalized, and only the most severe cases within the general population end up being seen by a physician and confirmed as nCOV. You've already got two levels of selection bias (with an unk…
I suspect that “chance of dying” varies based on treatment, and that treatment in an overwhelmed Wuhan hospital is likely not the same as treatment as, say, the first patient in France to get the disease.
I doubt this. WHile this may be true for a known disease, we have to ask, how much can the hospital do in this cases? It is a little bit like HIV in the beginning. Watch them die?
Interestingly, China is trying HIV medications on the infected.
How is this worse than your normal influenza cycle with 3-5Mio infections and 290k-650k death to warrant such an emergency?
Flu can be managed with vaccine, on-the-spot test kits and antiviral drugs.
Running the official numbers, mortality rate is less than 3%. If we plug in estimative models claiming 25000+ unrecorded infections, mortality is less than 1%. Unless you are in a sensitive age group or have other health problems, data suggests you're most likely to get over it as a regular flu. It's not all perfect and is worse than a regular flu, but especially now after the announcement some people may way over-st…
1% mortality would still be pretty substantial as these things go.