Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming • Hacker News Board

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#341

Post by heylook » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:25 PM UTC

anovikov wrote: post #40

endorphone wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil doesn't extract and process itself, and there are many reserves of oil that will never make sense to pump. Already in a lot of areas, such as the oil sands, it's tenuous because oil is barely at a price to support extraction, yet oil is expensive enough that it's being undercut by clean energy. Enormous reserves will never be extracted through simple, basic economics. We're already at a breaking point.

But the whole story are the new extraction methods which make reserves inaccessible or uneconomical to extract before, accessible and economical. Yeah people need to get real: any and all hydrocarbons will be dug out at some point. Unless you want to make a pact to nuke the countries that do it beyond a certain level (which can double as a nice way to mitigate global warming at least for a while). For some nations su…

That's like saying that we all need to accept that any and all whales will be harvested for whale oil to keep our lamps burning

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#342

Post by tyre » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:31 PM UTC

graycat wrote: post #335

pm90 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the South (especially in Texas, where I lived for a bit) they're considered a symbol of rugged manliness, which is the main reason why they're so popular among city dwellers. They're also nice to go off-road in areas with not good roads. I've driven a few and they also offer a different perspective when you're driving (you feel "taller"). Also, they might be safer than tiny sedans (although not sure how they compa…

Here are some points about pickups that appeal to me and maybe to others: (1) Bumpers. Pickup trucks (PUTs) tend to have actual, steel bumpers (often chrome plated which indicates that they are steel), both front and rear. Passenger cars have, instead, plastic over some structures for crumple zones or some such. So, if run into something, say, a deer crossing the road in the middle of the night, then are better off w…

You’ve made a good case for pickup trucks for people who need them, but I highly doubt most pickup truck buyers need all of these features.

Most people aren’t carrying 1000+ lbs loads or going off road or towing anything, so the features that make that life easier don’t apply.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#343

Post by war1025 » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:37 PM UTC

mojomark wrote: post #339

nostrademons wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus, electric motors have flat torque curves, while ICEs need to get up to a certain RPM before you start getting decent torque. That means you get maximum acceleration and hauling power from the get-go. https://www.carthrottle.com/post/how-do-electric-vehicles-pr... (This incidentally is part of why Tesla started with the Roadster - the flat torque curve of an electric motor can give some great acceleration numbers…

This!!! I've told everyone who'd listen for years that an electric motor is the better option for a pickup trucks due to the more appropriate matching of the torque curve to the hauling load demands. When my beloved '00 Ram 1500 died about 5 years ago I decided to hold out for an electric truck that I assumed would be coming to market. Looks like I may finally get my chance shortly. I honestly don't know if the cumul…

Trains are electric motors powered by diesel generators. Seems like it should be an easy sell for people that whatever trains do is an effective way to handle heavy loads.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#344

Post by catominor » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:39 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #131

rossdavidh wrote: post #97

So, interesting and all, but not even mentioning what is happening to coal the last few years seems like an odd omission. Coal is essentially disappearing from the world's energy mix. As big as coal was, it takes a while to go away completely, but the trend does not seem to be slowing down. By some estimates, there are a lot of cases now where it is more expensive to keep running an existing coal-fired power plant, t…

Coal is down-trending in the USA, but it still makes up 30% of the electricity in the USA. In other countries, especially China and India, coal is expected to be burned in massive quantities for the next couple of decades. Granted, they use much more efficient coal than the US does, but let's not act like coal is disappearing overnight. It's been over 30% of the mix for decades and it will continue to be so, in a glo…

Most/all of the coal plants that have been shut down in the USA in the past decade or so due to tightening regulations are sold (at an immense discount) and then shipped in pieces to China and started up again for the rest of their depreciable life (coal plants generally have a breakeven date 15 years after they start producing, and 30-40 years total before decommission).

China also has far less stringent regulations on pollutants, so net loss for global pollutant emission prevention.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#345

Post by AnthonyMouse » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:39 PM UTC

It's not surprising that oil producers see the writing on the wall. If they don't sell their reserves now, they'll either get a lower prices for them later (because of lower demand as people switch to electric vehicles etc.), or won't be able to sell them as a result of future legislation.

But making the price low now enables something they might not like -- it makes it cheaper to enact a carbon tax, because consumers won't feel it as much. Especially if you use it to fund a dividend, you can then make the tax (and corresponding dividend) quite large, and not get many complaints because people are getting back more than increase in fuel cost over what they're accustomed to paying.

If gas drops to $2/gallon when people are used to $3, raising it to $4 with a tax but then giving everyone the $2 back makes people happy, because now they have an extra $1 at the expense of the oil companies. And an extra $2 if they buy an electric car.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#346

Post by GiorgioG » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:42 PM UTC

irrational wrote: post #273

mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

I bought my F150 2 years ago and I love it (coming from a Honda CRV.) I'm a software engineer that works from home. If I need a 2x4 or mulch for the yard, I can throw it in the back without worry. They're versatile vehicles. Getting new couches for the living room? Throw it in the back of the truck instead of paying the ridiculous delivery fee.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#347

Post by Robotbeat » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:43 PM UTC

matthewdgreen wrote: post #274

Robotbeat wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because its use is banned. Until 1972, sperm oil was a very common additive in auto transmissions without an equivalent replacement. After the ban of its use, reliability of transmissions dropped by an order of magnitude: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperm_oil#Applications It took banning whaling and putting the sperm whale on the endangered species list and banning the sale of sperm oil to stop its usage. I…

The success of the 1972 ban reflects that fact that by 1972 whale oil had transformed from an irreplaceable source of energy and lighting (as it was in the mid-19th century) into a niche additive with a few specialized applications -- many of which already possessed better alternatives that just needed to be scaled and brought to market. Basically, people were using it just because it was convenient, not because it w…

This is true for gasoline vehicles right now. We can replace every gas powered road vehicle now with one that has a plug in it. A transitional period would be to allow a backup engine (like in the Chevy Volt) while we get charging availability to just as high as it is for gasoline.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#348

Post by toomuchtodo » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 10:49 PM UTC

GiorgioG wrote: post #346

irrational wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are pick-ups so popular? I can understand if you are a construction worker, farmer, etc. that actually needs a pickup truck; but why are they so popular for other people? The vast majority of pickup trucks I see have beds that are so clean that it is obvious that has never been used to haul even one bag of cement or load of dirt.

I bought my F150 2 years ago and I love it (coming from a Honda CRV.) I'm a software engineer that works from home. If I need a 2x4 or mulch for the yard, I can throw it in the back without worry. They're versatile vehicles. Getting new couches for the living room? Throw it in the back of the truck instead of paying the ridiculous delivery fee.

I paid $500 and put a hitch on my Model S. I can tow more with a trailer than I could've put in my Toyota pickup truck bed (in 10 years of ownership, I never once towed anything more than 1000 lbs with my pickup). Not saying your use case is wrong (I get the appeal having owned a truck for so long), only that folks should consider that a pickup truck is not the only path to easy cargo logistics.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#349

Post by greglindahl » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 11:08 PM UTC

npo9 wrote: post #311

NickM wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every problem exists until it doesn't. Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy. It's not a question of whether the human race can solve this problem, it's a question of whether we will solve it. There are no fundamental physical or technological limitations that prevent us from running the world on 100% clean energy, it's just a matter of overcoming our species' colle…

> Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy. I didn’t say the problem cannot be solved. I said the problem is continuing, and current data indicates it will continue to be a problem. You may call my opinion pessimistic. I think I’m being realistic, and our outlook is just this bleak. The global effort to fight climate change is falling significantly short to the task.

I don't think anyone is saying that we've already done enough and the prognosis is good. Also, you appear to be criticizing the people who are doing useful things, without offering any alternative. Bleak indeed.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#350

Post by munificent » Mon, Nov 04, 2019, 11:17 PM UTC

donkeyd wrote: post #199

OnlineGladiator wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better. The problem you're mentioning being solved by a battery pack could just as easily be solved by putting any random ballast in the back of the regular truck. I think electric will have other advantages (and disadvantages), but I doubt this is a big one for most people.

That ballast would then make the truck use even more fuel, which wouldn't make much sense.

I put two sixty-pound buckets of gravel in the back corners of my pickup. That's a neglible difference in weight but a very noticeable difference in traction in cold wet weather.