Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

governor.wa.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

331–340 of 568 posts

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#331

Post by throwaway936482 »

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #156
ncallaway wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The UK's answer to the problem is starting to look a lot more sensible than total economic chaos being caused by all other methods. The UK's answer to the problem may result in manyfold more dead than this approach. We won't be able to know until after the fact. In that state of unknown, I prefer the approach that values lives over dollars.

Lives and dollars are not totally different things. How many lives will be ruined by total financial destruction? How many will commit suicide in the months and years after due to financial issues?

If there is total financial destruction at the level of people losing their homes, not being able to eat, having their utilities cut off etc. it will be entirely due to policy choices that prioritise maintaining the current economic system and protecting the interests of the wealthy for the duration of the crisis over ensuring that everyone can survive with a basic, indeed decent, standard of life. By this I mean having their basic needs of nutrition, shelter, heat etc. met. For many (and I'm writing from the UK) this would actually be an improvement over the current situation. Globally we are the richest society in history by a profoundly long way, we have enough resources to get through this crisis. There is no reason that anyone should lose their home, or starve, or be left without power. But we have to acknowledge that, just as in situations such as WWII, normal economic life and the interests of capital / shareholders / the wealthy have to take a back seat to ensuring that, as far as possible, everyone can maintain a decent standard of life.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#332

Post by tathougies »

tempestn wrote: post #324
tathougies wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock prices don't really matter in the short-term, and we are lucky that the underlying financials are good, and that -- at the end of the largest bull run in history -- many of the largest companies have lots of cold hard cash. Apples hundreds of billions don't look so silly now, do they? Oh, BTW, the floor is hard-set at zero, which they'll never get to, since -- given there is no underlying financial issue, and t…

I won't opine on the correct value of the stock market at the moment, but the drop in demand due to measures needed to preserve life cause a financial issue. Many/most consumer-facing businesses can't withstand a drop in demand to near zero for a period of at least several months. So those businesses, absent some sort of national bailout, will go bankrupt. Or at the very least, they will go dormant. Either way there…

Sure, but economic fallout from natural disasters typically recover much faster. It doesn't shock our trust in the financial system, and people are more community minded, since no person can be blamed for it. Already, we are seeing bipartisan attempts at governmental stimulus. Did you ever think you'd see Trump and Pelosi agree on government spending, because the white house was pretty quick to endorse the house's plan.

But back to pandemics. Pandemics typically result in major booms due to (a) the die off, (b) the pent-up demand, and (c) the fact that everyone still trusts the financial system. The 1918 pandemic certainly caused major GDP losses, and short-term pain, but also caused the 20s

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#333

Post by sdkaufman »

ryanSrich wrote: post #312

This feels like a much worse outcome than just taking the virus on the chin and letting 40-70% of the population get sick. That may seem contrarian, but this panic feels worse than the actual virus. More people will die from economic hardship than from COVID.

> this panic feels worse

Well, for most people losing their family would feel way worse.

There are many ways to mitigate the economic impact down the line. Governments at all levels, companies and organization are already helping blunt the impact. For example, the California state government has promised to keep paying teachers and school staff. Many tech companies are continuing to pay maintenance staff despite office closures. NBA players have donated to arena staff affected by cancellations.

But nothing can bring back our loved ones.

Sources: https://edsource.org/2020/newsom-assures-districts-theyll-be.... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-google-facebook-.... https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/us/nba-player-donations-coron....

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#335

Post by tathougies »

adamsea wrote: post #328
tathougies wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is crazy. There is nothing any party could do to have prevented the virus from reaching the United States, aside from a complete shutdown of the borders, including for American citizens. It is too transmissible, too undetectable, etc, to prevent it. Containment is the only feasible option, and America is actually ahead of the curve. Unlike Italy and France and Europe, American states are shutting down before hos…

There is so much the US could have done if it had exercised an international leadership role earlier in the crisis. And the current administration messed up big time by not manufacturing sufficient coronavirus tests and instituting some sort of testing regime.

Yes, they screwed up testing.

However, no administration could have prevented it from reaching the US. Trump's closure of the Chinese border is more than almost any president would have dared done.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#336

Post by kqr »

mjevans wrote: post #240
cdata wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market is not the economy.

It doesn't even seem to be a real index on economic activity anymore either... In my personal view 'The Market's purely reflect consumer confidence. They appear divorced from actual reality, aside from how that affects the mindset of easily panicked lemmings.

Money purely reflects consumer confidence, and as long as the economy is based on money, so does the entire economy.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#338

Post by Data_Junkie »

rocha wrote: post #290
Data_Junkie wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the rich have nothing to lose, the poorer capitalists pay for the over reaction. That's why we see an over reacting, panicking society, because the rich benefit from it. It is the only reason they do anything, I hate to break it to you.

If nothing is done, the least privileged will suffer the most due lack of access to health services and a financial safety net.

But what is most assuredly going to happen is what benefits rich people. The rest is collateral damage or pure luck. Is what it is, nothing new under the sun.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#339

Post by mistersquid »

dmix wrote: post #219
boznz wrote: post #88

My Daughter was working as a temp between jobs and the work has now been stopped, she had two second interviews planned in Sydney this week now both positions have been retracted and nobody hiring or interviewing, she has about 7 weeks of cash savings and 4 months lease on a rental. Oh and no unemployment benefit or subsidies as she is New Zealander working in Australia. Young People at the lowest risk from this viru…

What is the "UK's answer" that's different than every other country with similar rates has done? Authorities have already denied the whole "herd immunity" meme is any sort of active policy in the UK. https://politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstrea...

Now that there is a growing backlash, the UK authorities are rejecting that they ever were trying to achieve "herd immunity” by allowing 60-80% of the “low-risk” population to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

However, the article you link to does not differ in its details from what authorities such John Edmunds a professor Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said 2 days ago [0] and Ian Donald Professor Emeritus from University of Liverpool wrote the same day [1]

These authorities are backpedalling in the face of deserved widespread criticism. But rather than changing the course of UK policy, they are only disavowing the phrase “herd immunity”.

[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C98FmoZVbjs

[1] https://mobile.twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#340

Post by fsh »

abtinf wrote: post #224
sb8244 wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lives and money are not the same thing. Hard stop. I understand your point, but I just disagree with the expected outcomes here. Realistically how much would it cost to bail out these businesses and provide a safety net to people? I imagine the numbers are less than we'd first think. It's a choice. It's not inevitable.

Who will provide the safety net when the entire economy is shut down? Production precedes consumption, always.

This is a straw man argument. Nobody proposes shutting down essential parts of the economy, such as food production or basic infrastructure. I think we are going to survive just fine without new iPhones or SV startups for a few weeks.
Post reply on HN