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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#321

Post by nl »

anigbrowl wrote: post #317
briandear wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bob’s Drywall Supply has net 60 for a delivery of drywall. Constructor Bill now can’t pay. Bob’s Drywall is a creditor and is on the hook for a product he already shipped. Now Bob’s Drywall Supply can’t pay the company that provided him with Net 90 terms. So Bob and Bill are now insolvent. And they fire their employees. Suggesting that creditors somehow deserve “pain,” is just cruel. Creditors don’t “inflict pain” on…

I thought it was obvious I was talking about financial institutions, which are just going to have to eat it for a while, although with interest rates now at 0% that will be more manageable. I can't address every aspect of the economy in a short comment.

I thought it was obvious I was talking about financial institutions

It's not obvious at all.

The comment you were replying to said "can't pay the booze suppliers" so it's pretty clear they we using the normal business definition of creditor.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#322

Post by sdkaufman »

boznz wrote: post #88

My Daughter was working as a temp between jobs and the work has now been stopped, she had two second interviews planned in Sydney this week now both positions have been retracted and nobody hiring or interviewing, she has about 7 weeks of cash savings and 4 months lease on a rental. Oh and no unemployment benefit or subsidies as she is New Zealander working in Australia. Young People at the lowest risk from this viru…

> Young People at the lowest risk from this virus are going to be much worse off than just catching a fucking bad cold.

It's not a "fucking bad cold" for young people.

- Over 50% of ICU patients in Netherlands from COVID-19 are under 50. [1]

- Over 50% of ICU patients in France are under 60. [2]

- Over 40% of patients requiring hospitalization in China were under 50. [3]

Young people are not invincible. The fact that they can use up a significant chunk of already scarce medical resources suggests that we really shouldn't be sending that message and encouraging young people to not give a sh*t about the epidemic.

[1] https://www.ad.nl/dossier-coronavirus/40-a-50-nederlandse-co...

[2] https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/300-...

[3] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#323

Post by Pfhreak »

code_duck wrote: post #262
DoreenMichele wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hesitate to ask about the size of the space you have available Thank you for both your concern and for being respectful. I don't wish to get into the details of my living space in this discussion.

You just started your comment by listing details of your living situation, however.

The polite response to "I'm not comfortable discussing in more detail" is "OK, sounds good."

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#324

Post by tempestn »

tathougies wrote: post #313
jader201 wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is stocks continue to fall — hard — and nobody knows where the floor is. It’s also unclear how long it will take everything to recover, if they do continue to fall.

Stock prices don't really matter in the short-term, and we are lucky that the underlying financials are good, and that -- at the end of the largest bull run in history -- many of the largest companies have lots of cold hard cash. Apples hundreds of billions don't look so silly now, do they? Oh, BTW, the floor is hard-set at zero, which they'll never get to, since -- given there is no underlying financial issue, and t…

I won't opine on the correct value of the stock market at the moment, but the drop in demand due to measures needed to preserve life cause a financial issue. Many/most consumer-facing businesses can't withstand a drop in demand to near zero for a period of at least several months. So those businesses, absent some sort of national bailout, will go bankrupt. Or at the very least, they will go dormant. Either way there will be layoffs, and of course the laid off employees will reduce their spending further. Even once the virus is under control, it will take time to reverse this damage.

Yes, of course, the market won't go to zero. But some firms will go under, and we don't know how severe the economic impact will be. Just because the crisis began with a natural disaster rather than a financial one doesn't mean there can't be serious financial impact.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#325

Post by Pfhreak »

jimmaswell wrote: post #164
lsllc wrote: post #25

Gov. Baker has done the same today in Massachusetts. A one month ban on on-site service starting Tuesday. Any food establishment will be allowed to do delivery or take out even if they didn't previously have a license for it. https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2020/03/15/charlie-ba... EDIT: It's until April 5th, so 3 weeks not a month: https://whdh.com/news/all-mass-restaurants-and-bars-ordered-...

A license needed for delivery/takeout? How is that justified?

Handling food safely requires training and process. Delivering food is a totally different environment than serving it in house.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#326

Post by jader201 »

tathougies wrote: post #313
jader201 wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is stocks continue to fall — hard — and nobody knows where the floor is. It’s also unclear how long it will take everything to recover, if they do continue to fall.

Stock prices don't really matter in the short-term, and we are lucky that the underlying financials are good, and that -- at the end of the largest bull run in history -- many of the largest companies have lots of cold hard cash. Apples hundreds of billions don't look so silly now, do they? Oh, BTW, the floor is hard-set at zero, which they'll never get to, since -- given there is no underlying financial issue, and t…

I think you’re overlooking the cascading effect of a lot of small businesses closing doors (voluntarily or involuntarily) while this blows over — not knowing how long it will take to blow over.

Short of a bailout, that’s not going to be easy to recover from. And even a bailout won’t be enough to bring about a full recovery anytime soon.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#327

Post by smt88 »

tathougies wrote: post #302
smt88 wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN's culture against partisan political statements looks particularly like sticking one's head in the sand these days. Coronavirus is not a political thing, but our (partisan) elected leaders had an enormous amount of power over how prepared we were, and their agendas shape the on-going response. It's impossible to talk accurately about the problem or solution without mentioning parties and politicians by name.

This is crazy. There is nothing any party could do to have prevented the virus from reaching the United States, aside from a complete shutdown of the borders, including for American citizens. It is too transmissible, too undetectable, etc, to prevent it. Containment is the only feasible option, and America is actually ahead of the curve. Unlike Italy and France and Europe, American states are shutting down before hos…

You're attacking an argument I didn't make.

I did not say anyone could prevent the infection from reaching the US. The damage can vary wildly once it's here. Containment is not a binary outcome.

Among the tools govt has: funding science, appointing competent officials at CDC and State Dept, travel bans, quarantines, financial relief, effective messaging, targeted testing, subsidizing tests and treatment, restrictions on gatherings, anti-smoking campaigns, regulations to reduce air pollution, not telling people that it's an exaggeration or a hoax, inviting the other party to discuss a compromise on life-saving measures, acting on the CDC's recommendations, sending govt workers home, enforcing anti-gouging laws... it's a long list.

As has been discussed here and elsewhere, many of Trump's behaviors and much of the Republican agenda has pulled us in the opposite direction of where we needed to be to deal with this. In the CDC, many people are "acting" roles because Trump refuses to fill vacancies. The same is true of the State Dept.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#328

Post by adamsea »

tathougies wrote: post #302
smt88 wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN's culture against partisan political statements looks particularly like sticking one's head in the sand these days. Coronavirus is not a political thing, but our (partisan) elected leaders had an enormous amount of power over how prepared we were, and their agendas shape the on-going response. It's impossible to talk accurately about the problem or solution without mentioning parties and politicians by name.

This is crazy. There is nothing any party could do to have prevented the virus from reaching the United States, aside from a complete shutdown of the borders, including for American citizens. It is too transmissible, too undetectable, etc, to prevent it. Containment is the only feasible option, and America is actually ahead of the curve. Unlike Italy and France and Europe, American states are shutting down before hos…

There is so much the US could have done if it had exercised an international leadership role earlier in the crisis.

And the current administration messed up big time by not manufacturing sufficient coronavirus tests and instituting some sort of testing regime.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#329

Post by ehnto »

chipotle_coyote wrote: post #204
eyegor wrote: post #42

This is going to be an economic catastrophe unless there's somehow a nationwide bailout to literally all brick and mortar businesses. I know of several local bar/restaurants that are considering shutting down for good, and a colleague near Melbourne told me of 4 that already have (I'm eastern US). Even if this all blows over in 3 months, we'll have a huge surge in homelessness and folks needing social assistance acro…

I'm a little surprised that commercial landlords of businesses that are affected aren't stepping up to offer rent concessions. Yes, I get they don't want to take a hit -- but they're generally in much better positions to do so than restaurants and cafés that run on less than 5% profit margins during good times. (And, yes, I'm sure the more leftist and anti-capitalist out there will say "but are you really surprised?,…

It is your government's responsibility, local or federal I don't mind. This is why you pay taxes, to provide services to your citizens, one of which is disaster preparedness. I wouldn't be quick to put the burden onto businesses. If such a thing were mandated you would pretty quickly bankrupt a bunch of landlords who were not in the position to take it, and you would shift a bunch of property ownership to the banks, the consquences of which I am not sure of.

It isn't so much about greed but rather responsibility. Is it really a businesses responsibility to take care of citizens? Shouldn't the government be doing that, and don't you pay them to do that?

I know America is skewed a bit, having businesses provide you your healthcare probably confuses their role in society. But something is off if you feel we should turn to a commercial realtor for community support.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#330

Post by femto113 »

ryanSrich wrote: post #312

This feels like a much worse outcome than just taking the virus on the chin and letting 40-70% of the population get sick. That may seem contrarian, but this panic feels worse than the actual virus. More people will die from economic hardship than from COVID.

The problem with that strategy is that some percentage of the people who become sick need acute care or they will die, and acute care is effectively a fixed resource over short time frames. There are a limited number of hospital beds, ventilators, nurses, doctors, and support staff available. The disease can spread much faster than you can increase any of these resources. If you run out of hospital capacity the death rate will increase rapidly and substantially. No government will fail to act when there are literally bodies piling up on the sidewalks outside of hospitals, so it is much saner to act to divert that scenario.
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