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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#331

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

Certhas wrote: post #309
erikpukinskis wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels. Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500. If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines. The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade. [1] https://arstechnica.c…

It's a good point: there very well could be a few Kodak Moments if technology changes and the incumbents don't adapt.

But predicting the future is hard.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#332

Post by MarkMc »

andy_ppp wrote: post #90

I would agree with the market that Tesla has the potential to be far far larger than Ford should things go well. If they manage to get to 500000 cars and full automation within the next year, they'll be worth even more than their current market cap. Remember that Tesla have by far the best dataset for building self driving cars and this is going to give them a huge time to market and/or safety advantage over their co…

One possible future is that Tesla execute perfectly but their stock still underperforms the market.

In 20 years Tesla may produce more cars than Toyota. They may have self-driving AI that is safer than any other. They may provide more taxi rides than Uber. But the total market for new cars may be half what it is today because no-one will own cars in future.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#333

Post by jansan »

resiros wrote: post #58

Can someone more knowledgeable explain how is that even possible? Doesn't this mean that the market predicts that Tesla's future earning after discount and after taking risks into account is higher than Ford's? Under which data? Or am I missing something?

You will not find any data to support this. The stock price level is based on emotion and guts feeling and on the cleverness of people who know how to play the emotions and gut feelings of others.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#334

Post by bigtimeidiot »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #275
iamacynic wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now according to who? your average HN reader who basically hates cars? yeah, sure. the guy who hates cars is bearish on ford, shocking. what about all the people buying raptors and gt350s and fgts and fists and fosts, hand over fist? do you even know what i'm talking about? do these insanely popular cars even register on your radar…

The kind of people who buy raptors and gt350s are a tiny fraction of the market compared to the people who just want to get to work. Tesla isn't interested in car enthusiasts, they want to be the default answer to the question "How do I get from point A to point B for $1?"

>people who just want to get to work.

People who "just want to get to work" aren't buying cars that start at $35,000, either.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#335

Post by simplyluke »

crabasa wrote: post #57
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

Ford's experienced how devastating an economic downturn can be for an auto manufacture. Tesla started their first serious mass market car (Model S) in 2012 and has had the benefit of being in a growing and healthy market.

Rainy day funds look like such a waste of money until the roof starts leaking.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#336

Post by mee_too »

emodendroket wrote: post #284
erikpukinskis wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The kind of people who buy raptors and gt350s are a tiny fraction of the market compared to the people who just want to get to work. Tesla isn't interested in car enthusiasts, they want to be the default answer to the question "How do I get from point A to point B for $1?"

The most popular cars are crossovers and SUVs, a segment Tesla hasn't shown any interest in so far.

Sure, if (your_universe == USA).

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#337

Post by iamatworknow »

cr0sh wrote: post #306
vkou wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tesla is a 'software company', the last thing I'd ever want to do is buy a car from them. As anyone who has every used software will attest to: Most of the time, we can count our lucky stars if our commercial software 'works' for a year and a half. Cue all the: "If Microsoft/Apple/Google/Facebook/Snapchat made cars" jokes.

I'm kinda with @iamatworknow on this, too (thus right there with ya too). I've contemplated the idea of my next pickup being a commercial vehicle, if I can get one (as a single unit and not a fleet sale) - which I probably won't be able to, but I can dream. It seems like that's the only way (except for going used) that I'm going to be able to get what I want: A standard-cab, short-bed pickup, ideally 4WD. I don't hav…

I actually had very similar thoughts on the pickup truck market when I was last looking for a new vehicle. I thought maybe a small pickup because I live in rough winter territory so the ruggedness, ground clearance, and 4WD would be good. Plus if I move homes soon like I plan to, it would be cheaper to just rent a trailer than a U-Haul for my one bedroom apartment worth of stuff.

But you're right -- there are no Chevy S10 or Ford Ranger type pickups anymore. The closest you'll find is probably the Toyota Tacoma, which has more than I would want or need.

So I just got another Corolla. It does have some fancy features I enjoy, but luckily they aren't reliant on the internet to function. And it's cheap.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#338

Post by bigtimeidiot »

jnicholasp wrote: post #245
TFortunato wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that's part of it. I'm sure another part of it is that Ford is already big enough, that there isn't a lot of growth potential there. That said, it's not like they are exactly just making small refinements to gasoline engines, while SV companies are the only real innovators, chasing electric and self-serving vehicles. We just tend not to talk about it as much on HN (compared to Tesla, for example): https://www.g…

Ford doesn't have much room to grow because they are a mature company in a mature field. Tesla is creating new fields. Ford doesn't know how to create new fields, therefore they're stuck making small improvements to existing things, and, once someone like Tesla makes it very clear that a new field exists and is viable, Ford will reluctantly follow the market trend. Ford does normal science [0], Tesla does revolutiona…

>Ford does normal science [0], Tesla does revolutionary science [1].

Peak delusion.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#339

Post by simplyluke »

bluGill wrote: post #180
sqeaky wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aluminum body is exactly the kind of iteration that was being talked about. It is neat, but its not and all new drive train on a totally different tech. Aluminium is a pretty well understood material, while self driving cars are virgin territory. Tesla is making larger swings and potentially accepting larger risk. Ford is... iterating.

What innovation is Tesla making? Electric cars are not new. In fact the first production car to reach 60mph back in the day was electric. Aluminum in a production car is a lot more innovative that an electric car. (li batteries in a production car though is innovative)

The dunning kruger effect is super prominent in the tech community's discussions of Tesla.

Plenty of other manufactures are doing innovative things with automation, technology, etc. Not to mention most of them can build a higher quality interior/driver experience for far less than what Tesla wants for a Model S

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#340

Post by emodendroket »

mee_too wrote: post #336
emodendroket wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most popular cars are crossovers and SUVs, a segment Tesla hasn't shown any interest in so far.

Sure, if (your_universe == USA).

OK, sure, the picture becomes a lot more complex if we want to talk about international markets. Anyway the car I see in the Tesla showroom does not say "car for practical people who just want to get from point A and point B." The article claims they're selling to the kind of people who would normally buy a Porsche.
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