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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#301

Post by akhatri_aus »

calpaterson wrote: post #254
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

No, market cap is not everything. Specifically it is not enterprise value, which is the correct measure of the value of a business. Market cap is the value of the equity. Enterprise value is the value of the business (ie including debt). Tesla's EV is $52bn. Ford's EV is $150bn.

Enterprise value isn't the value of the business, its the cost to acquire a business and assume its debt. You've assumed that you have to take on a company's debt as an acquirer to take over a company.

The market cap is closest to its value representing what it takes to control/own/sell the company.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#302

Post by princeb »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #277
ovulator wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you basing that trillion dollar evaluation off of? Combining the 5 largest auto manufactures on earth and you are still well short of a trillion dollar company.

Add in the 5 largest oil producers, the 5 largest electric utilities, and the 5 largest public transit systems and you'll get there.

ah hell, might as well toss in the 5 largest software companies while we're at it.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#303

Post by erikpukinskis »

dabeeeenster wrote: post #282
hammock wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's right, the economics don't work out for a Ford. They only work out for a smaller, separately owned disruptor. Inevitable truth and pattern seen across all mature industries

That makes no sense to me - can you explain further? Why don't Ford produce a 60KWH car as cheaply as they can?

The dealerships won't sell it. Any marketing they do for it will hurt their other brands. Any marketing they do for their other brands will hurt it.

It's like McDonalds selling an organic, grass fed burger. If they talk about the quality of the beef, they're basically saying the Big Mac is low quality beef.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#304

Post by allendoerfer »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #273
allendoerfer wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." > Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!" I think becoming as big as Ford already is, is one of Tesla's most positive possible futures if all of their many ideas play out. But they are already valued higher than that. How can this possibly work? There…

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

I think in a few years we will talk about how in 2017 people based their investment on the idea, that one company will win in not one, but in two already saturated markets, competing against companies with hundreds of thousands of employees.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#305

Post by koreyb »

aphextron wrote: post #59

Ford has dozens of production facilities across every continent on earth producing millions of vehicles a year. How can Tesla possibly be more valuable?

Blockbuster had thousands of stores. How could Netflix possibly compete?

Tesla isn't playing Ford's game. The ultimate value of TSLA is in the vertically integrated electric Tesla Network with millions of level 5 self-driving vehicles.

Why would you want an ICE vehicle when you can own a Tesla that drives you & your family anywhere you want, charges itself and makes you money on the side. Closely following that...why own a car at that point? Just order one up off the Tesla Network.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#306

Post by cr0sh »

vkou wrote: post #246
MR4D wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not the parent poster, but I'd offer one reason why some people feel this way - Ford is a car company, while Tesla is a software company. Big difference in expectations, capital expenditures, etc. Based on committed capital, I think this is at least partially correct.

If Tesla is a 'software company', the last thing I'd ever want to do is buy a car from them. As anyone who has every used software will attest to: Most of the time, we can count our lucky stars if our commercial software 'works' for a year and a half. Cue all the: "If Microsoft/Apple/Google/Facebook/Snapchat made cars" jokes.

I'm kinda with @iamatworknow on this, too (thus right there with ya too).

I've contemplated the idea of my next pickup being a commercial vehicle, if I can get one (as a single unit and not a fleet sale) - which I probably won't be able to, but I can dream.

It seems like that's the only way (except for going used) that I'm going to be able to get what I want: A standard-cab, short-bed pickup, ideally 4WD.

I don't have kids, and won't have kids. I have no need for four doors and an extended cab. I don't need a long bed. I want a short wheelbase. So far, it's either buy a used pickup (back when they made and sold these kinds of trucks) or go with a commercial vehicle (where you can still sometimes find them - sometimes).

The other perk about a commercial version is that they are stripped down to the bone. Nothing fancy in the cab, just the bare basics for a radio, cloth interior, non-electric controls for windows and seats. Basically, eliminate all the fru-fru stuff to make that much more reliable for work-based usage.

In other words, I want a truck to be a truck - not some fancy "I only go to the mall to show off" substitute for a minivan. Add in some basic 4WD with manual hubs (again - nothing to break) - and there ya go. That's my dream truck (ok - if there were a Raptor version of it that'd be nice, too - but I can't afford that, so who really cares).

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#307

Post by aanm1988 »

mbesto wrote: post #199
John23832 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read the book. None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil.

> None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil. Source?

The bolt. Billions of dollars into self driving technology.

Oh wait sorry this is HN. Ya, those idiots at ford will die to the great Elon. hahahahaha any company older than 25 years is worthless old school idiocy and will die within 5 years of a startup coming in.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#308

Post by TheGRS »

urda wrote: post #222
crabasa wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

That's not how the reporting works at all. Not at all. Make no mistake, as much as Tesla is loved by the Tech crowd they are currently nothing compared to Ford and other established auto makers.

Well if we're going to be making generic claims I'll just add my own anecdotal observation: I notice Teslas all the time in Portland now. They are easy to spot and it brings a smile to my face. On the other hand Fords tend to blend into the background, save for occasional jacked-up F-150 or maybe a spiffy Mustang.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#309

Post by Certhas »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #273
allendoerfer wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." > Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!" I think becoming as big as Ford already is, is one of Tesla's most positive possible futures if all of their many ideas play out. But they are already valued higher than that. How can this possibly work? There…

> There are so many car makers, there is no monopole they could get. Same for solar and batteries. The automobile industry will contract as we move from individual ownership to mobility. But along with that transition some manufacturers will keep up and others will not. Tesla is hoping to be one of the winners, taking perhaps 25% of the mobility market as the car buying market dries up. Tesla's valuation is also base…

> 's valuation is also based on the idea that clean energy will replace fossil fuels.

Last month Tesla sold 10,000 electric vehicles to Fords 2,500.

If we are serious about climate change, then sometime in the 2030s [1] we have to stop building new combustion engines.

The entire technology platform on which these 6,7 million Ford sales rest is about to be swapped out in little over a decade.

[1] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/10/germanys-bundesrat-vote...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#310

Post by erikpukinskis »

hodder wrote: post #223

Can anyone long the stock who is bullish about the future growth of production, cars, batteries etc write down some quick napkin math on future expectations that would justify your investment at this valuation? I have yet to hear a bull case with any actual math behind it, but am willing to hear you out. Something like: cars sold by yr, Margins. battery wall, solar sold by year. Margins. multiples assumed on revenue…

Thinking about product category sales is the wrong way to do it, because Tesla is trying to restructure existing product categories. Not car purchasing, but mobility services. Not solar panels but sustainable electricity generation and storage.

U.S. residential electricity use is 1.4 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh) per year. [1] At $0.10 each that $140 billion dollars.

Americans travelled about 3 trillion car miles in cars per year. [2] At $0.50 per mile (what the IRS lets you claim for mobility) that's $1.5 trillion dollars.

That's just the U.S. These markets are enormous. There are all kinds of ways for them to carve out $7 billion a year in net income to justify their market cap.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=96&t=3

[2] https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/03/1...

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