Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt • Hacker News Board

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#321

Post by kelnage » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

synquid wrote: post #303

chx wrote: post #223

I think the clearest article on topic is from Zeynep Tufekci https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opinion/coronavirus-lab.h... who says , repeatedly what we do not know and what is disturbing.

Zeynep has been wrong so many times during the pandemic that it hurts. She will not admit to it, though. She claimed that the Delta variant would end the pandemic, in the same way it is claimed for Omicron now. She's very naive about how the immune system works. Her writing is generally more propaganda than science.

Citation? The best I could find with a quick Google was her NYT opinion piece [1], which pretty clearly couched her statements about Delta possibly being the last surge in hospitalisations and deaths in the US as a potential scenario and not a certainty.

Whilst I agree that she (and most other science reporters!) use simplistic models for immune system responses (possibly more for her readers), I’m yet to come across anything she’s written that has been very clearly wrong or she hasn’t later corrected/clarified.

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/opinion/covid-winter-risk...

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#322

Post by slg » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

eloisius wrote: post #242

mike_d wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not allowing foreign scientists in, destroying evidence, arresting journalists, etc. That is par for the course. The Chinese government would have acted this way regardless of if it was a lab leak, natural event, or space aliens.

That's probably true, but constant suspicious behavior shouldn't normalize behaving suspiciously.

It is really weird how HN talks about this in comparison to similar topics. For example, this is the exact same logic that leads people to believe that encrypting data or using Tor is evidence of someone trying to hide criminal behavior. Almost everyone here would object to that type of thinking, but when it comes to China it suddenly becomes "Why would they object to transparency unless they had something to hide?".

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#323

Post by mellosouls » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:09 AM UTC

vasco wrote: post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is?

Related to "Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect", though I guess in this case the amnesia is replaced by a red-pill.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Crichton#GellMannAmnes...

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#324

Post by enriquto » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:10 AM UTC

vasco wrote: post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

> Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for anything at all they decide to?

For me it was the masks. The masks were my tipping point.

At some point at the beginning of the pandemic they said that the disease was totally not airborne and that masks were useless. I remember vividly president Macron (a person that I respected before that) very serious in TV explaining to all the citizens of the republic that we should not buy nor wear masks. That we should clean our doorknobs and vegetables, wash our hands, and avoid touching our face. If we did that we would be safe, no need of masks.

Just two weeks later, he appeared again on TV announcing that wearing masks was now mandatory. That it was the most important thing to do. Without any correction on the previous statement. Without any explanation of whether the previous statement was wrong due to ignorance or intentionally (to save masks for health personnel). Not only he was a liar "for our own good", he acted as if people hadn't even a two-week memory! An utmost lack of respect.

I found it extremely offensive that a democratically elected president treats the citizens who elected him as little children, and not as adults. I don't believe any of the stupid conspiracy theories, but I have more sympathy for the conspiracists that follow these theories (I am compassionate to them) than for the evil lying politicians.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#325

Post by arvinsim » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:11 AM UTC

nickysielicki wrote: post #96

awb wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions True, but it’s possible to ask questions that sway public opinion. Look at all the “studies” tobacco companies paid for. Or the racist scientific theories that attempted to justify slavery. If you’re asking questions about a lab leak out of genuine scientific interest, that’s perfectly legitimate. But if you’re as…

If China screwed up and didn’t follow proper first world standards for their research and directly caused 2 years of hell for the rest of the world then they deserve d everything that would have come their way. To hell with the future of science in China, some fuck ups are too big to sweep under the rug. Sometimes you need destructive anger. Sometimes you need raw political backlash. It’s really bizarre to me that we…

It's not really bizarre. Money talks.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#326

Post by Taurenking » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:12 AM UTC

vasco wrote: post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

No post body was provided.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#327

Post by finite_jest » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:12 AM UTC

ayngg wrote: post #256

vasco wrote: post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

"Trust the science" hasn't made people more rational, it has made "science" more dogmatic. I wonder what governments and the media will latch onto once they have eroded the trust in science, because there aren't many other trustworthy institutions left.

TBH, I think "Trust the science" is often used as a euphemism for "Trust authority", which isn't always good advice.

Also, the science itself doesn't really work as advertised. There is this book titled "Betrayers of Truth" [1] which I reluctantly recommend on that. The authors are sometimes a bit too harsh (e.g. about Millikan), but I think they have a point overall.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betrayers_of_the_Truth

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#328

Post by prox » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:12 AM UTC

emn13 wrote: post #296

vasco wrote: post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

I think this view is overly negative. First of all, consider the timing of this all; this was super early days. People, including many experts, had much less facts then, and the topic was sensitive. I think it's perfectly reasonable and even necessary that ill-founded but hard-to-disprove theories such as the lab leak theory at the time are examined critically, but to do so requires a healthy debate - in particular,…

I am sorry but the buck stops when instead of letting science, data and on-going process be determined by what politicians might say. Yeah it’s tough, but the only right thing to do and what everyone deserves. The cards need to be on the table at some point and publicly scrutinizable.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#329

Post by secondcoming » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:12 AM UTC

randomsearch wrote: post #313

I have mixed feelings about this, and I certainly think it’s not as clear cut as HN is converging on, although I share the same instincts. On the one hand, yes, science should be completely open and unhindered by geopolitics. But recall that Trump was in the White House at the time. We are a community of generally highly educated nerds with a strong understanding of science and engineering. We understand that all lab…

I don’t understand your point. Trump is the only leader who gave people the truth and was lambasted for it.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#330

Post by senectus1 » Wed, Jan 12, 2022, 9:15 AM UTC

ngc248 wrote: post #265

senectus1 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But don't you see the conflicting positions here... on one hand The Gov and bureaucracies in general have ham-fisted the response. This surprises no one really. we all know that Governments can be awful at these sorts of things. yet somehow they have masterminded the development and release of a contagious bio weapon and done it in damn near perfected secrecy? How can someone hold both those statements with equal wei…

The "Government" is not one monolithic being. They are composed of various people/orgs with varying capabilities. Some are incompetent and some are competent at the work they do.

thats exactly why its so ridiculously hard to keep a secret. its made up of thousands of people, all with their own personalities, objectives, desires, beliefs and competencies.