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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#91

Post by rhino369 »

perryizgr8 wrote: post #50
awb wrote: post #35

Some additional perspectives: Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ An r/science essay from a PhD in virology is highly skeptical: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... While Root Claim estimates an 83% chance of a lab leak: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

Snopes and the science page on reddit are not confidence-inspiring sources, to be honest. We need an authoritative investigation (led by WHO/CDC) into the origins of the virus to be able to make knowledgable statements. Until that happens, there is only hearsay and speculation.

I wouldn’t trust the CDC or WHO. We need an independent group who don’t have any baggage on this issue.

CDC can’t be trusted to even make a simple covid test and they don’t want to admit scientific research killed 20 million people.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#92

Post by sudosysgen »

perihelions wrote: post #86
awb wrote: post #35

Some additional perspectives: Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ An r/science essay from a PhD in virology is highly skeptical: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... While Root Claim estimates an 83% chance of a lab leak: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

That PhD virologist comes off as not credible at all, as part of their response is to deny the entire possibility of lab leaks in general . Their argument is that industrial accidents are simply caused by incompetence or lack of funding, and WIV is well-funded and run by competent people: therefore, bad things simply cannot happen . Their attitude is fundamentally unserious. https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/…

It doesn't seem at all line they're claiming that lab escapes never happen. Just that this particular lab is known for being extremely safe, and that it's therefore unlikely it would have had a leak.

For a leak of such a virus to happen from a BSL4 facility that routinely handles much more contagious viruses, you would need incompetence or funding issues, yes.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#93

Post by nahnahno »

Sunspark wrote: post #7
karpierz wrote: post #4

Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?

Disprove it? No. We do innocent until proven guilty in our jurisprudence.

This seems like the misuse of impressive sounding words. The hypothesis has nothing to do with US law. It’s a question of whether there is sufficient empirical evidence in support of the prevailing hypothesis, that the virus originated from a market in Wuhan.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#94

Post by bsder »

torstenvl wrote: post #90
bsder wrote: post #83

And we have research now that hypothesizes that Omicron incubated in mice and then jumped back to humans. If that hypothesis is true, then we have a fine example of something running in the background in a reservoir and then Hey, Presto! suddenly appearing to be mutated specifically for humans. If that's true, then all manner of "weird" things suddenly become both plausible and probable without any human intervention…

"If you find that [a government] has lost, destroyed, or failed to preserve any evidence whose contents or quality are material to the issues in this case, then you may draw an inference unfavorable to the [government]." West Virg. Jury Inst. 5.03

Okay. China created it. Now what? I have yet to see anyone explain what they would do with the result that is somehow beneficial.

Does knowing this help fight it? Does it help stop it? Does it help treat it? Does it help stop the spread?

Let's say China even INTENTIONALLY did it. Then what? You gonna invade China? Exactly how are you gonna make someone like Apple pull out of China when they should already be doing that NOW for other reasons?

I regard the "lab leak hypothesis" like I regard news about celebrities--worthless and unactionable.

It's simply a "boogeyman" to focus hate to create the "in group" and the "out group" for propaganda purposes.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#95

Post by whatshisface »

awb wrote: post #73
whatshisface wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your examples don't match the point you were making. The bent studies from tobacco companies were falsifying answers, not just asking questions, and the racist theories were operating on a hazy pseudoscientific level that can't even be called "falsification," but were also, by another means, giving false answers. There may have been a time in history when asking questions alone has been used maliciously, but it's nei…

They’re the end result of asking biased questions then manipulating answers to fit those biased questions. My point is that if you ask biased questions it won’t be long until someone provides biased answers. You need to ask unbiased questions to get unbiased answers.

"Does tobacco smoking cause cancer," isn't a biased question... What's biased is answering it with a "no."

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#96

Post by nickysielicki »

awb wrote: post #61
Jimmc414 wrote: post #3

[But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.] The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions. It is discouraging that scientists can make sta…

> The entire foundation of science is based upon empirical observation and asking hypothetical questions True, but it’s possible to ask questions that sway public opinion. Look at all the “studies” tobacco companies paid for. Or the racist scientific theories that attempted to justify slavery. If you’re asking questions about a lab leak out of genuine scientific interest, that’s perfectly legitimate. But if you’re as…

If China screwed up and didn’t follow proper first world standards for their research and directly caused 2 years of hell for the rest of the world then they deserved everything that would have come their way. To hell with the future of science in China, some fuck ups are too big to sweep under the rug. Sometimes you need destructive anger. Sometimes you need raw political backlash.

It’s really bizarre to me that western scientists would feel more obligated to defend the future of scientific progress in a foreign communist country (especially one that’s currently engaging in an ethnic cleansing not seen since WWII) over their obligation to their own country and more importantly, than their obligation to the truth. These people have taken scientific and technological progress as their god and it’s impossible to understand their actions if you haven’t.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#97

Post by Sunspark »

nahnahno wrote: post #93
Sunspark wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disprove it? No. We do innocent until proven guilty in our jurisprudence.

This seems like the misuse of impressive sounding words. The hypothesis has nothing to do with US law. It’s a question of whether there is sufficient empirical evidence in support of the prevailing hypothesis, that the virus originated from a market in Wuhan.

No, there isn't especially after 2 years. This does not however mean that in the absence of wet market evidence that the only possible answer is lab leak.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#98

Post by sudosysgen »

perryizgr8 wrote: post #50
awb wrote: post #35

Some additional perspectives: Snopes is highly skeptical: https://www.snopes.com/news/2021/07/16/lab-leak-evidence/ An r/science essay from a PhD in virology is highly skeptical: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... While Root Claim estimates an 83% chance of a lab leak: https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

Snopes and the science page on reddit are not confidence-inspiring sources, to be honest. We need an authoritative investigation (led by WHO/CDC) into the origins of the virus to be able to make knowledgable statements. Until that happens, there is only hearsay and speculation.

It's not a science page on Reddit, the source is a published virologist who himself cites dozens and dozens of sources.

I find it odd that people are commenting about how this doesn't inspire confidence, but "rootclaim" as well as an editorialised headline from the telegraph is.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#99

Post by CamperBob2 »

_Nat_ wrote: post #63
DarknessFalls wrote: post #33

Can someone explain why the furin cleavage site is unusual from a natural evolutionary view?

RootClaim discusses that claim and its perceived relevance [here]( https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV... ).

Hmm, that's a nifty site, reminiscent in some ways of Metaculus but with an actual methodology behind it rather than just prediction aggregation. Very nice UI/UX as well. I'm surprised I've never heard of it.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#100

Post by Sunspark »

karpierz wrote: post #4

Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?

Let me respond to this question with another question. Can you disprove the existence of space aliens? No, you cannot, because they are statistically possible. Are they plausible? That isn't what is being asked here, the plausibility, just whether something is possible.
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