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Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

nytimes.com

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Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#321

Post by wilsonnb3 »

tynpeddler wrote: post #300
wilsonnb3 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Would we rather that Musk had just never founded Tesla and SpaceX, that the world didn't have any companies doing what those companies are trying to do, and that we were left to be content with the previous status quo in the automotive and space industries? People have a serious messiah complex when it comes to Musk. Had he never been born, the automotive industry would still be moving towards electric cars. The fi…

>SpaceX has done far more than Tesla to push the rocket industry towards reusable launch systems but even then, had SpaceX never existed another company would have developed one within 5-10 years anyways. This seems unlikely. Up until Spacex actually landed a rocket, every other launch provider in the world considered it a ridiculous goal. The launch industry was concentrated around 3 groups, none of which had any in…

Look at it this way - without SpaceX, most of the people working at SpaceX responsible for planning and executing the project would have been employed at the other launch companies.

Unless you think that Musk is a once in a generation rocket engineering genius directly responsible for designing their reusable systems, it stands to reason that they would have been invented anyways (but probably more slowly).

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#322

Post by konschubert »

Musk says he's working 120 hours per week. That's 6 hours of sleep, the rest is work.

I don't believe that he's working 120 hours because that's the exact amount of work it's takes to make is companies succeed.

I believe he works 120 hours per week because that's simply the max amount of hours he can work.

There is no reason to assume that he can't reduce this work by 20% at least with some prioritization and delegation.

He doesn't seem to consider this a possibility.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#323

Post by Isinlor »

mattmaroon wrote: post #230
taneq wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What if energy density of batteries doesn't substantially improve and all electric vehicles continue to be unappealing to large chunks of the population due to range anxiety? Why are people still saying this? Is 300 miles then 200+ mph recharge rates not enough for 90%+ of people 100% of the time, and the other 10% of people most of the time?

The problem is most people have one car. 90% of the time isn't enough. And for someone who doesn't live in one of the densest cities, it's nowhere near 90% of the time.

Tesla can drive more than most people can. People needs breaks and cars can charge when people do too. Therefore Tesla owners don't seem to have any issues with range in US. They just need dense enough grid of superchargers.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#324

Post by Waterluvian »

skrebbel wrote: post #92
tomhoward wrote: post #37

But, he added, “if you have anyone who can do a better job, please let me know. They can have the job. Is there someone who can do the job better? They can have the reins right now.” I think this hits at the crux of the issue around the performance/behaviour of Musk and other leaders of hugely ambitious companies. And I think it highlights the importance of thinking about what kinds of people it will take to lead the…

There's a hidden false dichotomy there: That Tesla and Space X couldn't exist / succeed without Musk working his employees and himself into a burnout. I'm not sure that that is true. The same Musk with the same employees could've perfectly well done these companies at a sane pace - maybe even without losing speed in the grand scheme of things given that less stuff would've gone wrong.

This is what I'm wondering too. What is the factor that forces them to revolutionize cars at this pace? Why can't it just take a decade longer? I'm going to bet it has to do with economics, not physics. And that it is mathematically possible to have done it slower, if the market wasn't so damn fickle about making lots of money really fast.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#325

Post by [deleted] »

Waterluvian wrote: post #324
skrebbel wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a hidden false dichotomy there: That Tesla and Space X couldn't exist / succeed without Musk working his employees and himself into a burnout. I'm not sure that that is true. The same Musk with the same employees could've perfectly well done these companies at a sane pace - maybe even without losing speed in the grand scheme of things given that less stuff would've gone wrong.

This is what I'm wondering too. What is the factor that forces them to revolutionize cars at this pace? Why can't it just take a decade longer? I'm going to bet it has to do with economics, not physics. And that it is mathematically possible to have done it slower, if the market wasn't so damn fickle about making lots of money really fast.

[deleted]

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#326

Post by Waterluvian »

At 47 Musk is likely on the back 9 of his life. I guess it's perfectly fine for him to decide that anyone can have a family and the legacy he wants is in his inventions and companies. But if Musk doesn't see it that way, and finds value in the other intangibles, now's the time to make that change. Not one more year, one more quarter, one more meeting. Now.

And this is true for all of us. Be careful how much time you convert into money. You can't convert it back.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#327

Post by dragontamer »

compcoffee wrote: post #182
enraged_camel wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Why repeat absurd rumors about billion dollar investor lawsuits? You misunderstand. The calculation is not about a single lawsuit costing billions. It's about potential damages from ALL possible lawsuits from pissed off short-sellers. And that's not absurd at all - it's a real possibility, since Tesla stock is one of the most popular on the stock market.

> It's about potential damages from ALL possible lawsuits from pissed off short-sellers. What happens if you bought calls for a price higher than $420? They are worthless. You don't have to be a short-seller to have been burned by this.

> What happens if you bought calls for a price higher than $420? They are worthless.

To be fair, they always were worthless at best, the company would be bought at $420 (and no higher).

-------

I think you mean "bought calls at strike price $400" (leaving ~$20 buffer before the presumed buyout price). If Tesla were bought at $420, then calls at strike $400 would be worth $20 each.

Of course, as the $420 buyout price is falling apart, a call@400 is looking pretty worthless right now.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#328

Post by [deleted] »

travbrack wrote: post #155
skrebbel wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a hidden false dichotomy there: That Tesla and Space X couldn't exist / succeed without Musk working his employees and himself into a burnout. I'm not sure that that is true. The same Musk with the same employees could've perfectly well done these companies at a sane pace - maybe even without losing speed in the grand scheme of things given that less stuff would've gone wrong.

They're struggling to meet production goals even with the staff burning the candle at both ends, and using a highly automated assembly line. What could they do to be more efficient? I'm sure Musk would love to hear if you have an idea.

[deleted]

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#329

Post by tynpeddler »

dagoat wrote: post #320
tynpeddler wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>SpaceX has done far more than Tesla to push the rocket industry towards reusable launch systems but even then, had SpaceX never existed another company would have developed one within 5-10 years anyways. This seems unlikely. Up until Spacex actually landed a rocket, every other launch provider in the world considered it a ridiculous goal. The launch industry was concentrated around 3 groups, none of which had any in…

> every other launch provider in the world considered it a ridiculous goal VTVL was a thing before SpaceX > almost certainly heavily influenced by Spacex Blue Origin was founded almost 2 years before SpaceX

VTVL were mostly suborbital toys and demonstrators. None of the major launch providers were actively developing recoverable, orbital boosters. As for Spacex influencing Blue Origin, I mean that spacex has set the tone for for what is possible and this has almost certainly helped inspire and drive Blue Origin's products.

Re: Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year

#330

Post by rjdagost »

akmiller wrote: post #251
mattmaroon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has come really close on several occasions to buying TSLA puts (the options version of shorting) I think I can answer: the shorts aren't haters. The shorts don't want Tesla to fail. The shorts don't even think Tesla will fail. The shorts just think the market cap of Tesla is insane. It's higher than much larger, profitable automakers who can provably make and sell cars at scale. For Tesla to be worth i…

Perhaps their initial reason in shorting the stock was not inherently evil. But at this point they risk losing billions of dollars so their only incentive is to ensure the company fails. I actually don't find their share price to be out of control at all. They have assets other companies would only dream of at this point. The data alone on miles driven is extremely valuable in the race to self driving cars. Their sup…

What data does Tesla actually collect? They are very vague on this point, but people act as if a Tesla driving around is collecting the same quality of data as a Google self driving car. On this point I am highly skeptical.
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