Billionaires and angel investors in Anthropic are panicking. Need to sell their insider stock before the bubble busts.
Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
311–320 of 476 posts
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#312Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people. I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....
> last stages of late stage capitalism how long does this last? I've been hearing it for a decade.
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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#313Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
So big banks and Wall Street are about to get another bailout paid by taxpayers? Great.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
Token cost might be sustainable but still not profitable enough to make up for the costs of either training or the investments gifted away until it became profitable. They also might have no relevant moat that allows them to enshittify enough. But mainly, they are in "I need to kill whole industries to be worth it" tiers of investment.
> But mainly, they are in "I need to kill whole industries to be worth it" tiers of investment. Yes agreed. Coding is a pretty big industry though in and of itself. Same with healthcare, legal, etc etc etc. Of course we have zero model today that can seriously kill an industry, but if you look at (1) how good things are today (insanely fast and rapid adoption) and (2) robust performance trends from many complimentary…
>it's kind of inevitable and I haven't really heard a coherent steel man argument for why "killing whole industries" is somehow a far-fetched idea.
They don't only require "good enough to kill industries" (which is doubtful but certainly feasible), that's just step one. I think about it in terms of potential failure modes:
- if models don't reach worker-substitution levels, they fail
- if models reach that level, but it's too expensive to run and a worker's still cheaper, they fail
- if models reach that level, but the resulting tech is cheap enough to use, they fail (since open models can compete)
- If the models work but there's social rejection leading to regulation (due to mass unemployment for example), they fail
- if the models work but there are significant deal breakers (like a fundamental inability to keep them safeish to use) they fail.
So it's not really a single AI killer reason, it's more that the success case requires things to land in a very specific future where models work, and they're cheap enough, and expensive enough, and valuable enough, and exclusive enough, and safe enough, and...
Each "and" is a multiplier reducing their chances, and there's a ton or factors. Not imposible, but not where I'd put my money.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#315Earlier quoted context omitted.
If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…
Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004. I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.
When did Google pivot to advertising?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#316Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 4-8 quarters for most tech IPOs to settle Where are you getting this timeline from?
Mostly by having a pulse for the last 10-20 years as someone in the bay area seeing it repeatedly play out as tech IPOs get dumped onto retail investors repeatedly, including the 'good' ones. Being lucky enough to participate in IPOs makes you check these wrt when to balance IPO pop exit (weeks/months) vs long-term tax benefits of holding (2yr+). - The initial pop is known to be manufactured by banks, so mostly benef…
Almost every retail investor has a random vibe like this about a market-timing hypothesis. They’re pretty much all cocktail conversation at best.
Lock-up expiry is a real effect. Everything else you mention is Reddit stuff—trading the pop is practically a gamble.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#317SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...
The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?
They need the cash to bail out xAI and X.
Even SpaceX is not profitable because of Starship.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#318Earlier quoted context omitted.
FYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
They get to sell 20% on day two. Get f’ed everyone! https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/29/spacexs-massive-ip...
Did you read your own link? Quote: "Musk himself is not allowed to participate in any of the early-release provisions."
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#319SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...
The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?
Their IPO sees the company as doing a small amount of space and $22T of B2B services. If you believe that then space launches shouldn’t have much impact on their valuation compared to things that affect their hypothetical services revenue. If you think the value comes from the rockets, you would need some very large multiples to justify their desired valuation in which case, sure, the rockets are the cause of volatility…
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#320Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.
Well Apple followed being a disaster for two decades.