Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#311

Post by boardwaalk » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 7:54 PM UTC

notJim wrote: post #174

jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

We’re about one step away in battery tech (which Tesla leads on, among other things (efficiency, integration, etc) from a mid range electric car be upfront cost equivalent with an mid range gas car. Once that’s there, plus charging infrastructure (which is rapidly coming up) the other benefits (maintenance, torque, quiet, fuel costs, etc) will be front and center for every car buyer making the choice between the two technologies.

I don’t think it’s too optimistic. VW with the ID.3 seems like they’re the only ones who will be able to match the scale and qualities of product to the Model 3/Y in the near term.

We’ll see though. It’s interesting in any case.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#312

Post by 205guy » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 7:57 PM UTC

OrangeMango wrote: post #293

mmaurizi wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the solution to put smart meters that can track usage on a common meter and bill the condo owners for their share of the electrical bill?

Do you have an example of a purchasable product that works with existing electrical systems?

All the charger networks have solved this. Just choose a network (Chargepoint, Semaconnect, etc.), put in a 2- or 4-connection charger, and each EV owner pays for each charge with an RFID card or their phone. There are also online services for scheduling and paying for use of private (not-smart) chargers (evmatch.com), and others that specialize in your exact problem (multiple chargers in shared dwellings): evercharge.net

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#313

Post by gdubs » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:04 PM UTC

A lot comes down to whether the market views Tesla as a car company, or a technology company. The pessimistic view is that they’re a car company and the valuation makes no sense compared to GM, Toyota, or VW. The optimistic view is that they’re a technology company that — if they manage to stay alive — will produce value from both their core offering and the edges of their business, much the way Amazon has with AWS, or Apple is doing in Services.

Personally, I own a nominal number of shares and root for their success. But at the end of the day, it’s a Random Walk on Wall Street and predictions (good or bad) are largely speculation.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#314

Post by rjkennedy98 » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:06 PM UTC

dangus wrote: post #102

Technology sharing is very important to the modern car industry. Cars are incredibly complicated and if you follow news in the industry, in many cases brands will make technology sharing agreements so that they aren’t duplicating efforts. That’s where Tesla is well-positioned for the future compared to Ford and GM. They have a whole platform and a battery manufacturing facility where other car brands may become Tesla…

The irony is that its actually not that well positioned in autonomous driving, which could be the only thing that could really driving the incredibly valuations it has now. GM, for instance, by most reports is significantly ahead of Telsa.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#315

Post by OrangeMango » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:10 PM UTC

205guy wrote: post #312

OrangeMango wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have an example of a purchasable product that works with existing electrical systems?

All the charger networks have solved this. Just choose a network (Chargepoint, Semaconnect, etc.), put in a 2- or 4-connection charger, and each EV owner pays for each charge with an RFID card or their phone. There are also online services for scheduling and paying for use of private (not-smart) chargers (evmatch.com), and others that specialize in your exact problem (multiple chargers in shared dwellings): evercharg…

In a condo building, each parking space is deeded to the owner as a limited common element for the exclusive use of the owner. The charger in the parking space is owned by the owner of the parking space and the electrical connection runs to a utility closet that the electrical utility controls.

In a new building, you just design the electrical system so this is a non-issue. In an existing building, it's not so simple. Any state that has a lot of condos is going to have 100+ years of condominium laws that govern the ownership and usage of space in a condominium. You can't force someone to share their space and you can't authorize someone to enter someone else's space.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#316

Post by jansan » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:10 PM UTC

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #105

jansan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iPhones did not need a charging network. They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price, which made them even more desirable. But I just do not see average people who live in condos buy an EV anytime soon.

> They did not have any disadvantages besides the high price iPhones couldn't run Flash (which powered all of the interactive content on the internet at the time), couldn't send MMS (which was the way everyone shared photos at the time) or run apps (which was how feature phones added functionality at the time). "Why on Earth would anyone want one of those!?" was a pretty common reaction, yet they still sold like hotc…

Which phone was able to run Flash at that time?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#317

Post by bananabreakfast » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:14 PM UTC

mbbutler wrote: post #274

aerovistae wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an a…

Chevy and Hyundai already offer EVs with better range than the Model 3 SR+ at a lower cost.

Too bad no one cares about them and no one is buying them.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#318

Post by sokoloff » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:15 PM UTC

bdamm wrote: post #302

sokoloff wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can afford any production car. I choose not to allocate money that way and I’m far from unique there. We drive 10K miles per year across two drivers. My daily electric (LEAF) costs me $0.05/mi for energy (and I love it). My wife’s SUV costs $0.10/mi for gas and a few pennies for oil (and she loves it). She pays $600/year max for fuel. That covers about a month of Tesla car payment.

Ah, it doesn't work out in your case because you've already made the transition to electric. We went from two gas guzzlers (one of them was a 40mpg diesel, the other a fairly typical 25mpg) to one model 3 and the financing equation easily works in our case. Obviously not everyone is going to give up a car, and the math doesn't work for everyone. But more people should be doing the math rather than just looking at the…

Going from $0.11/mi to $0.05/mi ($0.20/kWh in MA) even at 20K miles per year saves $100/mo. That’s not economically compelling. Driving 1/4 of that (per driver) is even less compelling. I bought an electric because I wanted one (and there was $10K in government cheese in the trunk).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#319

Post by bananabreakfast » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:16 PM UTC

logicIsTruth wrote: post #108

kemitche wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can compete with Tesla From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. Regarding valuation, one point I read elsewhere is that Tesla does a lot more in-house, which adds to the valuation, whereas the existing companies will buy a lot of their parts and/or contract out work. I…

I mean, multiple companies have higher quality electric vehicles, but that isn't what sells. The name is what's selling. Tesla's are pretty ugly, they have horrible reliability. You don't buy a Tesla for style, you buy it to show off.

They have fantastic reliability. You heard wrong.

Short seller FUD, on the other hand, is quite real.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#320

Post by tachyonbeam » Mon, Jan 13, 2020, 8:18 PM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #251

California law as of Jan 1 requires all new houses to have solar panels, EV charging port, no natural gas allowed. This 100% electric future being forced is attractive to Wall Street as it forces change, despite adding ~300k to the house price. Wall Street bares no relation to the street where cars are powered by gasoline or diesel with few exceptions. It takes 75 minutes to charge a Tesla EV, much longer in cold cli…

There is no way this adds 300K to the price of a house, and it does not take 75 minutes to charge a Tesla, more like 15-30 minutes at a supercharger depending on your state of charge. Stop the FUD.