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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#301

Post by bigyabai »

ein0p wrote: post #124
butterlettuce wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that really what he’s doing? If so, then that’s some 5d chess right there.

It's 1D chess, really, and it isn't really Trump who came up with the idea. We're between a rock and a hard place. If we refinanced at 4.8%, the interest payment would go to $1.2T per year. If we refinance at a lower rate, it's lower. Note that we're not just refinancing either, we'll have to borrow about $1.8T, too, unless DOGE miraculously achieves its $1T/yr savings (doesn't look like it will, if the current trend…

> Tariff revenues would help to plug that hole somewhat.

"Somewhat" being a key operand here. America is a net importer globally, a protracted trade war is inherently leveraged against us. Neither the rock nor the hard place is forcing anyone to harass our trade partners and abandon our defensive alliances.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#302

Post by anigbrowl »

inatreecrown2 wrote: post #160

Isn't it obvious that Trump's goal are not these tariffs, but renegotiated trading agreements? But everybody just seems to love to proclaim this the end of US.

Isn't it obvious that you can't negotiate effectively if nobody trusts you?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#303

Post by bluefirebrand »

paxys wrote: post #172
bdelmas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

The next president is going to be Trump. If people don't think that's at least a serious possibity they are extremely deluded about the situation the country is in right now.

The man is 78 years old

There's a good chance he doesn't even live to the end of this term, forget running for president again at 82...

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#304

Post by some_furry »

mathfailure wrote: post #277
some_furry wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're totally missing the point, but ok.

What was the point?

When faced with "cash in hand that might lose value through inflation" versus "the stocks you currently own at risk of being worthless", the decision to sell is straightforward even in the absense of a next step.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#305

Post by cgio »

wtcactus wrote: post #56
jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

This all tariff imbecility created solely by Trump it’s atrocious, still, if EU response is to hit the main players in Nasdaq - where there are a lot of chip producers necessary for the ongoing AI revolution - we are just shooting ourselves majorly in the foot. Surely there are much better companies for the EU to apply directed tariffs. EU absolutely has their weaknesses, but giving blunt responses (like China just d…

I would argue that China is just playing the game and EU should do too while it lasts. No time for sophistication in a street fight, this is not chess.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#306

Post by NewJazz »

biophysboy wrote: post #154
xnx wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.

Reversing the actions would require either a 2/3 veto proof majority or Trump realizing he is wrong, both of which will probably take a while...

I don't think this is quite true. Because these tariffs have been levied under the guise of a national emergency, they technically need to be confirmed by the legislature within X number of days. The House is playing tricks to not hold a vote, and I'm not sure if they need cloture in the senate, but I don't think they need 2/3 to slap the tariffs down.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#307

Post by ants_everywhere »

lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

> while taking most of the surplus value

Just FYI, "surplus value" refers a concept Marx made up that is considered in mainstream economics to be an error in reasoning.

Even making sense of it requires buying into the labor theory of value that Marx took from Adams and Ricardo, but which is not taken seriously anymore.

That doesn't detract from the substance of the point you're making. But it's a little like reading someone say their house is hot because of all the phlogiston. It detracts from the force of the argument.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#308

Post by ekianjo »

Jtsummers wrote: post #221
bdelmas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that those in command are also waiting for the next President to undo all that but it is going to have a tremendous effect for a decade or more. Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Cutting off countries like Japan or Taiwan like that when we know their geopolitical situation with China and how critical their economy is to the US is quite crazy.

The US wasn't even in a crisis until 2025. We weren't in a stellar position (high deficits and debt, low unemployment but high underemployment). It was all recoverable before Trump started this trade war and doing things like cutting departments that actually brought in revenue.

> was all recoverable

The debt was never recoverable

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#309

Post by losvedir »

OJFord wrote: post #187
Gregaros wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been seeing people call this GEXIT, or global exit.

As a comparison to Brexit? At what point even momentarily was that in a worse situation, nevermind as an ongoing matter?

Are you pretty young? The narrative when it was happening was pretty catastrophic. I remember reading about people not being able to get prescriptions, for example, because no one knew how imports worked.

I don't know how things panned out, but the discussions in the early days around Brexit were absolutely on par or even worse than what we're seeing in these two days of discussions around tariffs.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#310

Post by creato »

markus_zhang wrote: post #217
victor106 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. Then why don’t other countries tax US services? I don’t even hear this from anyone in the media too

I think that's the nuclear option, at least for China.

Aren't these kinds of services already largely banned in China?
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