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Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

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Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#301

Post by lostgame »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #146
fastball wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure they had an original product that was definitely not vaporware, the issue is it turned out to be not scaleable at all. A product that is obscenely expensive and therefore can't be sold as a consumer device is not vaporware.

A prototype is not enough to stop something from being vaporware. Edit, to people that disagree: Did they have an even half-finished form? Did they offer it for sale? Was it "announced to the general public but never actually manufactured nor officially cancelled"? Vaporware doesn't always mean it's a scam. Sometimes it means there were intractable tech problems. Coming out with a fundamentally different product does…

In this sense, was Duke Nukem Forever still vapourware in the sense that it didn’t end up being whatever the original game would’ve been?

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#302

Post by Zanneth »

tim333 wrote: post #261
DonHopkins wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is pretending to be something that you're not really "modest"?

I'm not sure how they are pretending? The AR bit seems to work pretty well to me.

Everybody I know who plays Pokémon Go turns off the AR features, because they don’t care about them. They would rather use their smartphone normally than pointlessly aiming the camera at the sidewalk.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#303

Post by lostgame »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #73

They need to start advertising like Occulus is doing, buying up literally all the ad slots on Youtube. By comparison, I haven't seen a single ad for Magic Leap anywhere on the internet. People aren't buying it b/c they've never heard of it.

> They need to start advertising like Occulus is doing, buying up literally all the ad slots on Youtube.

Not everyone has the money of Facebook behind them. ;)

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#304

Post by tinus_hn »

wpietri wrote: post #143
daenz wrote: post #12

The thing that got me about the Magic Leap is I couldn't find a reliable video of what it looked like through the lenses. Everything was clearly a CGI overlay or recreation. Reviewers claimed they were prohibited from showing video through the lenses.[0] I can understand not wanting their product misrepresented, but all the secrecy and censorship about it makes me believe it is bad, and I'm not going to spend money o…

Another dimension to consider: if it's good, how long is it good for? I just got done writing a long thread on the history of 3D as a novelty: https://twitter.com/williampietri/status/1203074623232851970 But the basic summary is that since the 1850s, people keep coming up with exciting 3D innovations that sell lots of units for a while, but that never make much of a difference. Stereoscopic 3D is interesting and fun;…

A lot of people complain about it but I like the 3D effect on the (new) Nintendo 3DS a lot, even after using it for quite a while.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#305

Post by greggman2 »

lonelappde wrote: post #273
greggman2 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see phone AR as a pointless gimmick. Like comparing a 1970s video game to PS4 video game. Yes both can be fun but pong is not really comparable to GTA5. Phone AR is so far off from Black Mirror AR. I can imagine every teenage girl spending all their time playing with their friends in AR, having their friends appear in their bedroom instead of just on Facetime. With AR glasses, some future version where they are no…

Why girls?

I wasn't trying to single out girls, only that it's an observed pattern that young girls (teens) talk to their friends constantly. It used to be with a phone, now it's probably via multiple ways. AFAIK the same pattern does not exist with young men to the same level. I have no idea why. I only know that it's an observed pattern than fits enough that it's a stereotype.

It's old but it was one of the first hits

https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2010/04/20/chapter-two-...

How teens communicate might have changed but I'm guessing the relative amounts show girls still use it more.

I firmly believe that at some point those same people will embrace full eye AR (not phone AR) as a preferred or common way to communicate over all current methods. Further, I believe that once it's possible for them to do it easily without cumbersome equipment that AR will become mainstream.

It's clearly years out but the fact that I can carry a tiny and relatively light computer on my wrist with display (a smart watch) suggests it might not be that far off to have stylish glasses with similar tech at a price people will pay for once the applications make it clear they want it.

If you asked in 2007 how many non-techies wanted a PDA the answer would likely have been close to 0. Now the answer is close to 100% of them carrying one at all times. I think AR will be no different. What has to happen is they need to go from the bulky Apple Newton level tech of today to something light and useful.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#306

Post by wpietri »

andybak wrote: post #296
wpietri wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you tell me how you came to the conclusion that it doesn't take major resources to design and make the hardware? Magic Leap took $2 billion. Occulus, $3 billion. I do agree that there's enough revenue in novelty that content can keep happening. 3D books are still coming out this year, more than 150 years after the initial wave of hype: https://www.amazon.com/Queen-3-D-Bohemian-Rhapsody-2019/dp/1... But I don't…

> Could you tell me how you came to the conclusion that it doesn't take major resources to design and make the hardware? God knows how ML spent $2 billion. Where did you get the figures on Oculus? Is that their spend or how much Facebook spent on them? My source is the fact that multiple relatively small companies have brought VR headsets to market and that there are viable open hardware projects to do the same. > My…

Zuckerberg was the one who said $3 billion. Which doesn't count ongoing development expense for the last 3 years, but from news reports it looks to be in the billions. And apparently they're spending circa another $1 billion on VR acquisitions this year: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/07/facebook-is-on-a-b...

I do believe that it doesn't cost that much to bring something VR-ish to market, as long as they're trying to replicate older hardware with commodity gear. But if they want to push the state of the art forward, I'm not shocked at all by those numbers. Apple's spending something like $15 billion a year on R&D, and billions more on acquisitions. Maybe that's unnecessary for VR, but certainly a lot of VR advocates still believe that true success requires further technical innovation.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#307

Post by filoleg »

daeken wrote: post #194
filoleg wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't gotten a chance to try Magic Leap myself, but if you think that Magic Leap doesn't hold a candle to the original Hololens, then in it is dead in the water imo. I was somewhat annoyed with how small the field of view was on Hololens, and overall it was a pretty janky experience that I wouldn't recommend to anyone except those who just want to try the first "real" AR headset product out here and attempt writi…

How was the comfort level on the HL2? That and the low FOV were what killed the original for me, as my use case is replacing my screens. I'm actually getting ready to commit to working 100% through VR -- Quest -- and AR -- currently ML1, but seriously considering the HL2... If I didn't have a toddler to watch while I work much of the time, I'd probably just go all-in on VR (I'm currently working 30-50% through the Qu…

Imo you are in for a treat, because FOV and comfort are the two biggest improvement areas with HL2, along with redesigned software/UX. Still no “killer app” third party software yet, or much third party software at all, but your biggest comfort and FOV complaints are all addressed extremely well.

As it goes with those kinds of things, you should definitely try the device out before making a conclusion, but given what you said earlier, I feel like you will like it.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#308

Post by vanderZwan »

aspaceman wrote: post #300
vanderZwan wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, you can, and if we don't hold this kind of behavior accountable it will keep happening.

No, no. I mean who should you hold accountable. I'd rather hold Sony's marketing, than a bunch of developers who finally got their shot. Like it's understandable to me that a small software team would sell their big shot as something huge. It's the job of a publisher like Sony to keep consumers' expectations in check. Hold the right people accountable lest it will also keep happening.

I do agree that it would be unfair to only hold the small indy company accountable - but both they and Sony deserve criticism in their own way

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#309

Post by jjeaff »

NotSammyHagar wrote: post #232
jjeaff wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes sense. Because I heard on a podcast, this week in tech, I think, from a VC on the panel that was an investor and the rest of the panel was comparing it to Microsoft's ar product and he was adamant that he had seen things that he couldn't talk specifics about but that it was a total game changer.

What podcast & episode was that?

It was TWiT. No idea what episode. I believe it was Calacanis that was the investor that said that though.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#310

Post by tim333 »

Zanneth wrote: post #302
tim333 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure how they are pretending? The AR bit seems to work pretty well to me.

Everybody I know who plays Pokémon Go turns off the AR features, because they don’t care about them. They would rather use their smartphone normally than pointlessly aiming the camera at the sidewalk.

The AR is not very good for actual gameplay but was kind of fun, partly for sending pictures in the early days.
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