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Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

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Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#291

Post by andybak »

wpietri wrote: post #279
andybak wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have yet to find one who uses it with the sort of frequency that people use their gaming consoles, PCs, laptops, or phones to play games. Part of the problem the industry has with VR is unrealistic measures of success. Does VR really have to be used with the same frequency we use consoles and have sales as high as smart phones to be considered not a novelty? There's a huge gap between "another duffer like 3D TV"…

Is there a gap there? I mean, sure, I see it conceptually, but I don't see a market gap. Look at movies as an example. When sound came along, it basically destroyed the market for silent film. Same deal for color film. But 3D has come and gone at least twice, bumping along as a novelty in between. I think it's going to be even more true of VR, in that doing good VR content is a) difficult, and b) a pretty different p…

I think there is a market gap. Even without AAA games, even without a mass-market presence, VR is a genuinely new medium and there will always be enough people fascinated by it to for content to keep producing.

Even if it's arty or niche content (which is fine by me) VR fills a unique role and people will want to keep experimenting with it.

Between education, arts, B2B, training etc the gaming side of VR could disappear entirely and there would still be enough usage to maintain an ecosystem. It doesn't take a huge company to design and make the hardware.

Maybe VR going underground for another decade wouldn't be such a bad thing. The tech industry might be slightly less unicorn-obsessed next time round.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#292

Post by wpietri »

andybak wrote: post #291
wpietri wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a gap there? I mean, sure, I see it conceptually, but I don't see a market gap. Look at movies as an example. When sound came along, it basically destroyed the market for silent film. Same deal for color film. But 3D has come and gone at least twice, bumping along as a novelty in between. I think it's going to be even more true of VR, in that doing good VR content is a) difficult, and b) a pretty different p…

I think there is a market gap. Even without AAA games, even without a mass-market presence, VR is a genuinely new medium and there will always be enough people fascinated by it to for content to keep producing. Even if it's arty or niche content (which is fine by me) VR fills a unique role and people will want to keep experimenting with it. Between education, arts, B2B, training etc the gaming side of VR could disapp…

Could you tell me how you came to the conclusion that it doesn't take major resources to design and make the hardware? Magic Leap took $2 billion. Occulus, $3 billion.

I do agree that there's enough revenue in novelty that content can keep happening. 3D books are still coming out this year, more than 150 years after the initial wave of hype: https://www.amazon.com/Queen-3-D-Bohemian-Rhapsody-2019/dp/1...

But I don't think there's enough evidence to demonstrate that any of those VR uses you suggest will be sustainable businesses after this wave of hype fails. Sure, people will tinker, and I think that's great.

But the most I expect to be happening 10 years from now in VR hardware is the Cardboard-style "let's put a phone on your face" thing. With perhaps a side of "VR as amusement park ride", like today: https://www.msichicago.org/explore/whats-here/tours-and-expe...

And if that's all you're expecting, that's fine by me. My issue with VR is the enormous wave of hype around it.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#293

Post by wpietri »

DonHopkins wrote: post #253
wpietri wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another dimension to consider: if it's good, how long is it good for? I just got done writing a long thread on the history of 3D as a novelty: https://twitter.com/williampietri/status/1203074623232851970 But the basic summary is that since the 1850s, people keep coming up with exciting 3D innovations that sell lots of units for a while, but that never make much of a difference. Stereoscopic 3D is interesting and fun;…

Hey wait, I thought "Goofy Droopy Glasses" were a slinky for our eyeballs. http://www.houseofrave.com/goofy-slinky-eyeball-glasses.html

Fair point. I regret the error, and appreciate the correction.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#294

Post by wpietri »

andybak wrote: post #289
wpietri wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have not tried the very latest generation, but I have tried previous generations. For me, it's really amazing/engaging/compelling for a while. And once the novelty wears off, it's not. I've also tried creating my own VR content and it's the same deal when I test it on people: really neat the first time, but interest quickly declines.

> I have not tried the very latest generation, but I have tried previous generations. Just to clarify - you mean VR with 6DOF tracking of head and controllers? Vive, Rift, Quest, Windows MR etc. Or something else? For me this is the minimum bar to being "truly interesting VR". Everything before that was just a novelty in my view.

That's great, and I'll certainly try them when I get the chance. But please understand that every time there's a new generation of hardware somebody tells me that this time is different for 3D. And have done since the 1990s.

And I'll note that I've believed that myself as long as my use of the platform is modest enough that it stays novel. So what I'm really looking for here is what I look for when evaluating most new products: proof of sustained use by a broad audience.

My personal experience with a new product doesn't tell me a lot. There are things I personally love that never take off, and there are things I don't like that end up being wildly popular. The evidence that will tell me VR has actually arrived is when it's good enough that people stop using their TVs or their Switches or their gaming PC. Or, heck, use it 20+ hours a week at the office, letting their laptops gather dust. And not just the ~3% of the people who are technophiles, the people who absolutely loved their Google Glass. But at a minimum, people in the ~15% group of early adopters, with usage starting to leak into the early mainstream group.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#295

Post by andybak »

wpietri wrote: post #294
andybak wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have not tried the very latest generation, but I have tried previous generations. Just to clarify - you mean VR with 6DOF tracking of head and controllers? Vive, Rift, Quest, Windows MR etc. Or something else? For me this is the minimum bar to being "truly interesting VR". Everything before that was just a novelty in my view.

That's great, and I'll certainly try them when I get the chance. But please understand that every time there's a new generation of hardware somebody tells me that this time is different for 3D. And have done since the 1990s. And I'll note that I've believed that myself as long as my use of the platform is modest enough that it stays novel. So what I'm really looking for here is what I look for when evaluating most ne…

> But please understand that every time there's a new generation of hardware somebody tells me that this time is different for 3D.

VR != 3D. 3D is only a small part of what makes VR compelling.

And it's hard for me to pass judgement on what other people have told you. I only know that 6DOF for me was the game changer. And I've been around the block a few times myself.

I'm still curious about what VR you have tried. I'd like to know what your benchmark is.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#296

Post by andybak »

wpietri wrote: post #292
andybak wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a market gap. Even without AAA games, even without a mass-market presence, VR is a genuinely new medium and there will always be enough people fascinated by it to for content to keep producing. Even if it's arty or niche content (which is fine by me) VR fills a unique role and people will want to keep experimenting with it. Between education, arts, B2B, training etc the gaming side of VR could disapp…

Could you tell me how you came to the conclusion that it doesn't take major resources to design and make the hardware? Magic Leap took $2 billion. Occulus, $3 billion. I do agree that there's enough revenue in novelty that content can keep happening. 3D books are still coming out this year, more than 150 years after the initial wave of hype: https://www.amazon.com/Queen-3-D-Bohemian-Rhapsody-2019/dp/1... But I don't…

> Could you tell me how you came to the conclusion that it doesn't take major resources to design and make the hardware?

God knows how ML spent $2 billion. Where did you get the figures on Oculus? Is that their spend or how much Facebook spent on them?

My source is the fact that multiple relatively small companies have brought VR headsets to market and that there are viable open hardware projects to do the same.

> My issue with VR is the enormous wave of hype around it.

Then we agree. My fear is the hype and the associated snipe will kill a fascinating new medium before it's had a chance to mature.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#297

Post by 205guy »

lonelappde wrote: post #273
greggman2 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see phone AR as a pointless gimmick. Like comparing a 1970s video game to PS4 video game. Yes both can be fun but pong is not really comparable to GTA5. Phone AR is so far off from Black Mirror AR. I can imagine every teenage girl spending all their time playing with their friends in AR, having their friends appear in their bedroom instead of just on Facetime. With AR glasses, some future version where they are no…

Why girls?

Have you seen dance roulette? This was made almost 10 years ago: http://youtu.be/aEolW1x9O3k

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#298

Post by wpietri »

tripzilch wrote: post #274
andybak wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your hands are in the same physical location as the object you're interacting with. It removes one of the planks of artificiality and improves the chance your brain will stop signalling that experience isn't real. I don't entirely agree with OP. I enjoy VR even when it uses the gamepad. If the iteractions have a good "in-game" explanation - no matter how far-fetched - then your brain will stop raising the alarm. So i…

> Your hands are in the same physical location as the object you're interacting with. But, they literally aren't. The object is in virtual space, and your hands are interacting with two controllers (wands) that you cannot see and this interaction is then translated to control the virtual space. I suppose, with practice they would become more of an extension of yourself? But that's not what I assume what was meant wit…

I think a similar thing happens with all tools. The same happens with game controllers, mice, keyboards, etc. While you're getting to know them, they're weird and unfamiliar. And then once you're really used to them, they vanish. When I'm typing a comment, I'm not thinking about fingers or QWERTY. I'm immersed in what I'm doing.

Which is certainly an argument that people get used to VR controllers. But I think it's also an argument against VR being particularly special in terms of immersion.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#299

Post by andybak »

wpietri wrote: post #298
tripzilch wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your hands are in the same physical location as the object you're interacting with. But, they literally aren't. The object is in virtual space, and your hands are interacting with two controllers (wands) that you cannot see and this interaction is then translated to control the virtual space. I suppose, with practice they would become more of an extension of yourself? But that's not what I assume what was meant wit…

I think a similar thing happens with all tools. The same happens with game controllers, mice, keyboards, etc. While you're getting to know them, they're weird and unfamiliar. And then once you're really used to them, they vanish. When I'm typing a comment, I'm not thinking about fingers or QWERTY. I'm immersed in what I'm doing. Which is certainly an argument that people get used to VR controllers. But I think it's a…

> But I think it's also an argument against VR being particularly special in terms of immersion.

Or rather, it's an argument against 6DOF controllers being central to VR immersion. I think they make a difference albeit a small one.

Actual physical hand tracking is wonderfully immersive but hits other snags. No haptic feedback and tracking limitations. For some scenarious however it's a step forward.

(You need to design interactions around the controller limitations. Current VR experiences are too enamoured of the novelty and give the user too much freedom. Immersion comes from carefully stage managing the experience to avoid those things that sign-post the artificiality)

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#300

Post by aspaceman »

vanderZwan wrote: post #245
aspaceman wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But when it’s Sony co-marketing can you really blame them? It was their first time ever getting that kind of attention from a publisher and they screwed it up. That’s how I’ve interpreted it at least.

Yes, you can, and if we don't hold this kind of behavior accountable it will keep happening.

No, no. I mean who should you hold accountable. I'd rather hold Sony's marketing, than a bunch of developers who finally got their shot.

Like it's understandable to me that a small software team would sell their big shot as something huge. It's the job of a publisher like Sony to keep consumers' expectations in check.

Hold the right people accountable lest it will also keep happening.

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