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Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

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Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#271

Post by mch82 »

comex wrote: post #185
ianai wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The VB also makes me wonder if AR isn’t practically impossible for the foreseeable future since lots has changed since then, but not the vaporware of this stuff.

The Virtual Boy was VR, not AR. VR is suffering a “hype hangover” of its own these days, sure, but I’d say not to the same degree as AR. The tech works much better (it’s just a screen with a fancy lens in front), it has at least one solid use case (games; mostly played at home, so less worry about the social awkwardness of wearing something on your head), and millions of VR headsets have been sold.

Keep in mind that Pokemon Go (AR) has generated over $700M in revenue for iOS App Store & Google Play. [1] That’s 7x the $100M in revenue Facebook generated from the entire Oculus Store (VR). [2]

[1]: https://www.businessofapps.com/data/pokemon-go-statistics/, Pokémon Go Statistics

[2]: https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/25/oculus-eclipses-100-millio..., Oculus eclipses $100 million in VR content sales.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#272

Post by lonelappde »

mch82 wrote: post #271
comex wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Virtual Boy was VR, not AR. VR is suffering a “hype hangover” of its own these days, sure, but I’d say not to the same degree as AR. The tech works much better (it’s just a screen with a fancy lens in front), it has at least one solid use case (games; mostly played at home, so less worry about the social awkwardness of wearing something on your head), and millions of VR headsets have been sold.

Keep in mind that Pokemon Go (AR) has generated over $700M in revenue for iOS App Store & Google Play. [1] That’s 7x the $100M in revenue Facebook generated from the entire Oculus Store (VR). [2] [1]: https://www.businessofapps.com/data/pokemon-go-statistics/ , Pokémon Go Statistics [2]: https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/25/oculus-eclipses-100-millio... , Oculus eclipses $100 million in VR content sales.

The difference is that PGo is an AR toy putting stickers on screen, not a 3D experience. And it's riding hard on Pokemon IP and Pokemon collector gimmick, not easy to replicate with other games in same or different genres. The failing AR projects are presenting it as a virtual reality experience, as general as everything we do on monitors first.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#273

Post by lonelappde »

greggman2 wrote: post #208
ghaff wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on your definitions. You don't need a headset for pretty interesting AR. If I could just point a phone at things and get genuinely useful information as an overlay, I'd consider that a pretty decent AR application. Sure, the same thing in a pair of stylish glasses might be even better but it's not strictly necessary.

I see phone AR as a pointless gimmick. Like comparing a 1970s video game to PS4 video game. Yes both can be fun but pong is not really comparable to GTA5. Phone AR is so far off from Black Mirror AR. I can imagine every teenage girl spending all their time playing with their friends in AR, having their friends appear in their bedroom instead of just on Facetime. With AR glasses, some future version where they are no…

Why girls?

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#274

Post by tripzilch »

andybak wrote: post #243
tripzilch wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The boringness of having to "press the action button" instead of just reaching out and touch the thing I'm supposed to interact it. but "reaching out" in VR equates to waving around a VR wand in space and pressing buttons on it, I'm not sure what's the difference?

Your hands are in the same physical location as the object you're interacting with. It removes one of the planks of artificiality and improves the chance your brain will stop signalling that experience isn't real. I don't entirely agree with OP. I enjoy VR even when it uses the gamepad. If the iteractions have a good "in-game" explanation - no matter how far-fetched - then your brain will stop raising the alarm. So i…

> Your hands are in the same physical location as the object you're interacting with.

But, they literally aren't. The object is in virtual space, and your hands are interacting with two controllers (wands) that you cannot see and this interaction is then translated to control the virtual space.

I suppose, with practice they would become more of an extension of yourself? But that's not what I assume what was meant with "having to press the action button instead of just reaching out and touch the thing". Maybe the VR I tried just had really shitty controllers?

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#275

Post by ulfw »

tomp wrote: post #102
IshKebab wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've tried Hololens and it is honestly pretty amazing. The field of view really sucks but I'm sure they'll improve that, and it doesn't actually matter quite so much for AR. But it is still a less compelling proposition than VR. The main market is games where seeing the real world is kind of pointless. Good VR is much more immersive, and being taken to another world is much cooler than seeing some floating planets or…

Isn’t it the exact opposite? Only with AR can you turn everyday spaces, like a home or an office, into games... with VR you’d be bumping into walls and tripping over things

Let’s be honest. Both are nothing more than niche.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#276

Post by dmix »

Causality1 wrote: post #217
dmix wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice video explaining No Man Sky’s evolution: https://youtu.be/uzvxn6l50co Anyone who has worked in software knows the difference between expectations/projections and real life. Everything takes 10x longer once you dig into the details. So it’s great to see a gaming company able to adapt and continually release through those down moments and eventually produce something great. It makes you wonder how much better othe…

For me it's a very conflicted project. All they've done since release has been admirable, and NMS is now a good game well-worth the fee. Thing is, most of that work should've been done before release, and is it right to commend a company for marketing creme-filled donuts and then sending us the creme in the mail eighteen months later? Even so, I would've said yes it is, except for one issue: they still refuse to apol…

So many companies think they can pull a fast one and ignore/downplay mistakes with PR speak which is so stupid in 2019.

Information can’t be controlled, people aren’t stupid, and honesty goes a lot further to regain respect and patience... than some bullshit positive spin.

Sadly entrepreneurs and the business community cares more about pushing persuasion and clever tactics than merely being human and honest to your customers.

So agreed the iterative approach is excellent and dedication after getting panned in reviews is rare and should be encouraged... but their communication? Not so much.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#277

Post by wpietri »

lonelappde wrote: post #270
wpietri wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm glad to hear there are a few people happy with the current stuff. But I'll note that in the 1990s wave of VR there were people who would talk exactly like this. It was amazing; they loved it; the tech and content wasn't there yet, but surely in 10 or 20 years, we'd all be spending all our time immersed. And I'll note that James Cameron, director of Avatar, has essentially the same belief about 3D movies: https://…

Cameron made a great 3D movie that spawned a generation of shitty counterfeit imitations. That article is about how Cameron feels 3D cinema was poisoned by a glut of cheap fake 3D, and he wants real 3D tech to develop so people stop faking it, and he wants a no glasses solution. Is he wrong? People always had TV. Obviously home viewing is winning because it's getting better and it's much cheaper and more convenient.

I believe he is wrong. Sure, it's possible that Cameron is the only person who can make a good 3D movie. But the explanation that's more consistent with the history of 3D is that he was the person to get in early and ride the novelty wave. Once the novelty wore off, people stopped bothering.

It's true that home viewing is winning because it's more convenient. But my point is that it's obviously worse in terms of viewer experience and the technical qualities that VR proponents believe will finally lead to VR success.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#278

Post by wpietri »

andybak wrote: post #244
wpietri wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think I would. I already have the experience of immersion with current screens. I don't think strapping screens to my face will improve anything. And given the metaphorical and literal headaches of trying to fool the human vision system, I don't expect that I'd enjoy anything in the facehugger category. This might change for me if we could bypass the eyeballs and the limbs, of course.

Although VR is technically "strapping screens to your face" that description doesn't do justice to the actual experience. I sense from your jocular put-downs the scepticism of someone that hasn't tried modern VR. Would I be correct?

I have not tried the very latest generation, but I have tried previous generations. For me, it's really amazing/engaging/compelling for a while. And once the novelty wears off, it's not. I've also tried creating my own VR content and it's the same deal when I test it on people: really neat the first time, but interest quickly declines.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#279

Post by wpietri »

andybak wrote: post #240
wpietri wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another dimension to consider: if it's good, how long is it good for? I just got done writing a long thread on the history of 3D as a novelty: https://twitter.com/williampietri/status/1203074623232851970 But the basic summary is that since the 1850s, people keep coming up with exciting 3D innovations that sell lots of units for a while, but that never make much of a difference. Stereoscopic 3D is interesting and fun;…

> I have yet to find one who uses it with the sort of frequency that people use their gaming consoles, PCs, laptops, or phones to play games. Part of the problem the industry has with VR is unrealistic measures of success. Does VR really have to be used with the same frequency we use consoles and have sales as high as smart phones to be considered not a novelty? There's a huge gap between "another duffer like 3D TV"…

Is there a gap there? I mean, sure, I see it conceptually, but I don't see a market gap.

Look at movies as an example. When sound came along, it basically destroyed the market for silent film. Same deal for color film. But 3D has come and gone at least twice, bumping along as a novelty in between.

I think it's going to be even more true of VR, in that doing good VR content is a) difficult, and b) a pretty different process than most non-VR content. One of the VR fans in this thread was bemoaning the lack of AAA VR content in particular. But nobody's going to be making that content unless the market is large enough to support it.

Re: Dented Reality: Magic Leap Sees Slow Sales, Steep Losses

#280

Post by 4AoZqrH2fsk5UB »

lookdangerous wrote: post #226
daenz wrote: post #12

The thing that got me about the Magic Leap is I couldn't find a reliable video of what it looked like through the lenses. Everything was clearly a CGI overlay or recreation. Reviewers claimed they were prohibited from showing video through the lenses.[0] I can understand not wanting their product misrepresented, but all the secrecy and censorship about it makes me believe it is bad, and I'm not going to spend money o…

I went to a magic leap developer event and tried the headset first hand. It was truly magical. It made me giggle. Now, at the current price point it’s too high for me to buy as a toy and I haven’t really been struck with any killer app ideas to buy it as a dev kit, but I really think it’s an extremely cool piece of kit.

Same. I tried it in 2016 during an interview and it was incredible... but I don’t have a use case for it and so can’t justify.
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