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94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#31

Post by ekster »

dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

Isn’t that what is happening? I was just in the US for a couple weeks (Portland, OR) and rules were minimal and optional everywhere. Not the kind of thing that would drive mental health issues, as best I could tell.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#32

Post by Tarsul »

this data arguably shows that the choice really is between vaccination (+possibly weak infection) and infection. We can't hide from the virus.

This doesn't mean that the only choice is opening up everything, but eventually... yes. Concious governments should first try to get more people vaccinated. Long covid is too frequent, otherwise. (400k have it in UK, see: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-400000-ha... )

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#33

Post by criticaltinker »

bagels wrote: post #28
criticaltinker wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

Here are some primary sources which support the fact that infection leads to robust and durable immunity.

[1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf

[2] Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v...

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#34

Post by threatofrain »

akiselev wrote: post #23
iamtheworstdev wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.

The overwhelming majority of children in the US receive the MMR jab either due to public school pressure or immigration policy. It is unlikely that COVID vaccination will ever reach the same levels, despite sufficient abundance of vaccine supply to play vaccine diplomacy around the world.

Meanwhile we have Australia deploying the military to enforce acute lockdowns because they failed to secure enough vaccines early on.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#35

Post by IfOnlyYouKnew »

criticaltinker wrote: post #21
danuker wrote: post #4

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https…

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

The fact that more people are in the hospital in Florida right now than at any time in the last two years would seem to disprove any speculation of here immunity.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#37

Post by gpmcadam »

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #14

Simultaneously true: * it is clear everyone will get it * policy will be slow to adapt to that reality and continue strategy of containment

When you’ve ran an 18 month fear campaign its hard to get people to stop being scared

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#38

Post by tshaddox »

giantg2 wrote: post #26
rowland66 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).

Not really. Officially and unofficially they are pushing everyone to the vaccine. People who have antibodies are still getting fired from their jobs because they didn't take the vaccine. There's even talk of requiring the vaccine for some schools, regardless of prior infection status. So the US is not shooting for herd immunity through either means, but only through vaccination. Even federal employees are being requi…

Pushing for near universal vaccination isn’t at odds with wanting herd immunity. Quite the opposite.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#39

Post by comicjk »

criticaltinker wrote: post #21
danuker wrote: post #4

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https…

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

If we assume everyone has been infected? Why would we assume that? The estimates I've seen (including asymptomatic) are around 1/3 infected. The source you cited is from 2020, so it doesn't tell us much about today.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#40

Post by cjlars »

Animats wrote: post #16
danuker wrote: post #4

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https…

The CDC publishes that data.[1][2] It runs 6 weeks behind, though. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/abou... [2] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

Are these numbers comparable to OP? It's hard to reconcile that FL is at 24%, or NY at 13% w/ antibodies vs the headline.
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