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94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#21

Post by criticaltinker »

danuker wrote: post #4

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https…

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected

Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.?

If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.?

EDIT: Answered in solid source provided by animats - the seroprevalance estimate for the U.S. is 21.6% (95% CI - 21.2% to 22.22%). I also found a couple recent primary sources regarding the asymptomatic rate, see thread below.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#22

Post by mrhands69 »

sjg007 wrote: post #18
wusher wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Herd immunity can also be achieved by the anti-vax people catching the virus. They can develop immunity by being sick instead of getting a shot.

Along with an accompanying crush of ICU hospitalizations and deaths.

Why haven't we spent time bolstering healthcare then? Why have all the field hospitals been destroyed as fast as they were put up?

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#23

Post by akiselev »

iamtheworstdev wrote: post #17
dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

It's unachievable in the US. Not enough people willing to get vaccinated. The bar for herd immunity is predicted at 80% or higher if covid keeps mutating to become more infectious. Measles had a 95% herd immunity threshold so who knows where covid could finally land.

Measles is one of the most infectious pathogens known to man with an R0 between 10 and 15. Even with the delta variant, COVID doesn't seem as transmissible so the threshold should be closer to 80 than 95.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#25

Post by loceng »

rowland66 wrote: post #15
dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).

Vaccine isn't necessarily easy for everyone, and catching COVID isn't necessarily hard for everyone; and underlying health condition seems to be primary determinant of that, not vaccination status.

Edit to add: feel good about downvoting critical thinking, ideologues.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#26

Post by giantg2 »

rowland66 wrote: post #15
dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

The US is absolutely shooting for herd immunity now. Its just a question of how individual members of the herd want to achieve their immunity. They can take the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (get Covid).

Not really. Officially and unofficially they are pushing everyone to the vaccine. People who have antibodies are still getting fired from their jobs because they didn't take the vaccine. There's even talk of requiring the vaccine for some schools, regardless of prior infection status. So the US is not shooting for herd immunity through either means, but only through vaccination. Even federal employees are being required to attest to their vaccinated status without similar options for those with antibodies acquired by other means.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#28

Post by bagels »

criticaltinker wrote: post #21
danuker wrote: post #4

I am stunned so few governments publish such "in the wild" data. The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected, not to count "confirmed" cases. For instance, it seems only 8.8% is confirmed (or 88k out of 1 million) [1] . Add that to the 69% vaccinated with at least one dose [2], and you get 77.8% accounted for, which is less than the 95% quoted. [1] - https…

> The only way to judge the effectiveness of measures is to see how many people have actually been infected Can anyone provide links to recent peer-reviewed primary sources that estimate the number of individuals who have been infected in the U.S.? If ~70% of people are asymptomatic, and we assume just about everyone has been exposed to and infected by the virus - haven't we already achieved herd immunity in the U.S.…

This assumes infection leads to immunity. It doesn't seem to be clear that this is true.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#29

Post by ummonk »

dontreact wrote: post #3

This probably explains the previously mysterious drop in Delta cases in the UK. In the U.S. why shouldn't we just shoot for herd immunity now? Not sure how effective restrictions and mandates will be in slowing things down and the costs to mental health and quality of life are so high.

We seem to be trying to "flatten the curve" and "slow the spread" to needlessly take extra long to get to the same final place - natural herd immunity.

Re: 94% of English adults have Covid antibodies, ONS data shows

#30

Post by Animats »

SavantIdiot wrote: post #13
wusher wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Herd immunity can also be achieved by the anti-vax people catching the virus. They can develop immunity by being sick instead of getting a shot.

Exactly. That's my point. It is unavoidable.

We can hope. Some people have already become ill from COVID more than once.[1] This is rare, but it happens. Immunity from vaccination seems to be stronger than immunity from having the disease, but it's too early to be sure. How long vaccine immunity lasts is an open question. So far, it's at least N months, where N is how long the vaccines have been in wide use. Beyond that is speculation.

[1] https://www.brgeneral.org/news-blog/2021/july/can-i-get-covi...

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