Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout • Hacker News Board

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#291

Post by Terr_ » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #241

Terr_ wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't require a constitutional amendment, we can just repeal the law [0] being used, which would ironically involve the same number of votes as keeping the law but slapping down Trump's particular usage of it. (That's now how it originally worked, but the easy-slapdown route got ruled unconstitutional.) Military alliance stuff might be harder. Some stuff like NATO is supported by actual legislation, but other st…

> we can just repeal the law [0] being used Only with a veto-proof majority in both chambers.

Yes, just like I said: "which would ironically involve the same number of votes as keeping the law but slapping down Trump's particular usage of it."

Originally it wasn't veto-able (only needed a Concurrent Resolution of 50% in each house, no Presidential signature) but the Supreme Court ruled that part unconstitutional in the early 80s.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#292

Post by mathfailure » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

fulladder wrote: post #16

beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

The belief of Trump and his allies is that the last 40 years of free trade has been extremely favorable to college educated "elites" and extremely unfavorable to the working class. They see foreign trade as having hollowed out American manufacturing, and therefore they see the shutting down foreign trade as a way to reverse this decline. While they are aware that doing so will hurt college educated professionals, the…

Where did you take this from? Trump is not from working class. Working class might've been his 'platform' for the election, but he's already elected now, he basically has no incentive now to fight for the rights/interests of his voters, he has his own wallet that needs to finally get filled. Unless you think he really aims for a 3rd term.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#293

Post by clipsy » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

VirusNewbie wrote: post #126

lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

Are you claiming that the 'shareholder class' would rather depress the economy and wipe out trillions in shareholder value...over inflating the economy and lowering interest rates?

Every major financial crisis since (at least) the 80's has resulted in a "K shaped recovery" in which the 99% are forced by circumstance to sell off assets to the wealthy at bargain prices.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#294

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 1:59 AM UTC

ijustlovemath wrote: post #13

fulladder wrote: post #5

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed. My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and en…

Anyone who's played cards or an MMO know those are insanely good odds -- virtually guaranteed!

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#295

Post by peteforde » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:00 AM UTC

yojo wrote: post #251

outer_web wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think less 4d chess and more Erlich Bachman school of negotiation. Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

When he started with a limited set of tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China it sort of made sense as a bullying move. The administration at least had the bandwidth to conduct three sets of negotiations. But it’s essentially impossible to negotiate 180 deals simultaneously. No way does Tunisia get even five minutes to pitch a deal - the simultaneous imposition of tariffs effectively DDOS’d the negotiation team.

I'd love to hear more about what sort of sense these tariffs made at any stage since they were announced.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#296

Post by pizzly » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:00 AM UTC

eclipticplane wrote: post #112

jarym wrote: post #7

It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation. And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings. In previous…

Tech was easiest to export cross border. You can export tech through culture, and the USA has been a powerhouse of every major technical cultural channel for the last 50 years.

My comment may be naive but digital services do not have tariffs. Given the unpredictable manner of Trumps tariffs wouldn't this encourage more startups and companies to focus on exporting digital services instead of focusing on physical goods? If so there could be minimal increase in goods produced in US and instead US consumers just absorb the price rise of goods with the consequences that arise from that.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#297

Post by jampa » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:00 AM UTC

lwansbrough wrote: post #6

So where is the bottom? I don’t actually believe there is one, I’m just curious to hear what other people think.

As someone who sold all my stock in January and invested into bonds, I think we are far from it, but the bottom it will depend if the tariffs are lifted in the next days. The worst case scenario would be tariffs being kept and the FED eventually losing independence.

I think it is safe to say that we probably will go back to pre COVID levels, since the trust in the stock market is eroded, but this time with high interest rates.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#298

Post by OJFord » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:01 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #261

OJFord wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?

Brexit was pretty bad for the UK proportional to the size of their population/economy, and is still causing problems even though the initial dislocation is over. If you think it's a lesser crisis, you could just say that. I haven't done the numbers to make an exact comparison, but they both have the qualities of being being abrupt, severe, and self-inflicted.

> If you think it's a lesser crisis, you could just say that.

I do, but the principal reason I didn't say that is that I had no idea it's what the commenter I replied to was referring to.

'Brexit' feels mostly completely irrelevant / not a topic of concern or debate since at least the beginning of the pandemic five years ago. The vote was almost a decade ago. 'If bdelmas thinks it's like Brexit, they could just say that', to paraphrase your own comment.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#299

Post by mindslight » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:01 AM UTC

biophysboy wrote: post #154

xnx wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.

Reversing the actions would require either a 2/3 veto proof majority or Trump realizing he is wrong, both of which will probably take a while...

Two thirds of the Senate, only half of the House. Focusing on reversing just the tariffs is a waste of effort. The traditional ownership-class backers of the Republican party need to wake up to the reality that this bankruptcy enthusiast will only bring further destruction and ruin, start leaning on some congresscritters to buck the maggot party line, and depose this America-hating fuck. That's about the only hope of the United States being able to rebuild credibility.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#300

Post by nimos » Sat, Apr 05, 2025, 2:02 AM UTC

FiniteField wrote: post #174

nimos wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising. If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross…

What about these tariffs would cause the millions/billions of non-paying users to stop using the free service that is facebook?

What caused people to stop using the free service that is MySpace? What caused people stop using the free service that is Digg? Being free isn't particularly novel. Facebook isn't providing this service out of some sense of altruism. It is incredibly profitable.

What about the tariffs would cause people to stop using it? Because they - along with many other of the administrations postulations and policies - are incredibly unpopular and a complete 180 of US foreign trade policy. Because tech is a money printing machine for the US and tech oligarchs who have largely bent the knee to Trump.