Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#2[deleted]
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#3Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#4I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k.
This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagnant wage so that the wealthy don't incur actual losses.
Share prices will be brought back up through layoffs.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#5Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed.
My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and endowments, and the professionals I know are all shifting away from growth stocks and into value, international and bonds. VC is already in a drought (except for AI) and now my guess is that it's going to get worse. So many VCs I know have started only in the last 15 years, so they have never seen a real recession like 2009 while working in venture.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#6So where is the bottom?
I don’t actually believe there is one, I’m just curious to hear what other people think.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#7It is interesting that tech (Nasdaq) is the hardest hit here. The real engine of US exports for recent decades and likely to be a casualty as other countries plan their trade-war retaliation.
And that's not even taking into consideration what might happen in the domestic market should there be a real recession - consumers will cut down their consumption and that'll filter back to lower corporate earnings.
In previous economic stumbles, US exports abroad were able to buffer domestic weakness. Probably not anymore...
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#8This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border or pretty much anywhere else on the globe.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#91930 all over again.
Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
#10You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated before, and the amount of resentment against America from this is going to take a generation to heal.
Of course I'm sure some people would claim this is 4D chess or what not but.. sometimes the person doing something crazy is just crazy at the end of the day.