UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears • Hacker News Board

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#291

Post by hardlianotion » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 9:01 PM UTC

djlastword wrote: post #169

hardlianotion wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the reaction will be simply to adopt minimal changes in the short term in ways in which Euro treaties and laws are brought wholesale onto Westminster statute books. Significant change will only occur over time and limbo is to be avoided where possible - not just for the UK, but for everyone else as well. This is the only thing that would make sense even if everything was planned and orderly, which I thin…

I think you're underestimating the psychological aspect of Brexit. We Europeans feel betrayed and abandoned by the Brits. Especially since they always demanded and got special deals on everything EU-related anyway. Their arrogance will finally get to them. Plus we have access to another 27 countries so the loss will not be huge for us. No matter when official negotiations start, trade and other collaboration will sta…

I think this will happen to some extent, even if just as a result of uncertainty that prevails when nobody knows what the formal situation will be. There is a range of European sentiment, but for sure a lot of disappointment.

All countries in the EU have a keen idea of their self interest at all times, and the UK is no exception. The national interest here has always been wholehearted participation in the single market deepening and expansion and little interest at all in the larger political project, which did not exist when the UK joined the EEC. "Special deals" do not fairly characterise the relationship.

I don't think that EU leaders have an urge to make the UK suffer that is dominant over the desire to have good neighbours and a healthy, stable future. We have all done well out of the relationship and we want to prosper together in the future. Europe needs wholehearted cooperation on the issues that unite us, and that needs good faith and an appreciation of what we still have.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#292

Post by mpweiher » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 9:33 PM UTC

Wintamute wrote: post #258

wrong_variable wrote: post #19

Large Multinationals like Unilever, even for incremental decisions - like changing the type of light bulb, takes years to execute. This is why a large change in their business is so difficult and you need a very good CEO ( ask Marissa Mayer ) The decision UK made to leave the EU is akin for Unilever to switch from selling shampoos to selling software - and we are not talking about a multinational with 100,000 employe…

Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to put such economic under-performance down to at least in part the frankly outdated 70s era customs union that the EU is based on. China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world [1] ... rather than just judging countries o…

Citation needed:

Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades.

Hmm...the numbers appear to disagree with your claim:

  http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate

China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world[1] .

Hmm...the article does not say that China is the source of the ratings: "compiled by Portland, a London-based PR firm".

Let me repeat that: a London-based PR firm rates Britain highly. In other news, the pope says vatican tops in catholicism and the US president thinks US is the greatest.

In addition, "Britain scored highly in its “engagement” with the world, [..] its diplomats staffing the largest number of permanent missions to multilateral organisations".

Hmm...

And finally: "But many of the assets that pushed Britain to the top of the soft-power table are in play. In the next couple of years the country faces a referendum on its membership of the EU; a slimmer role for the BBC, its prolific public broadcaster; and a continuing squeeze on immigration, which has already made its universities less attractive to foreign students. Much of Britain’s hard power was long ago given up. Its soft power endures—for now."

Gee...

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#293

Post by mpweiher » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 9:35 PM UTC

hardlianotion wrote: post #289

wrong_variable wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I am not mistaken - individual countries are not willing to negotiate trade treaties before the UK invokes article 50. Even if by some miracle Theresa May decides to withhold invoking article 50 before creating new treaties using back channels with the 50 other trading partners of the UK, it wont be possible to enact them until the UK leaves the EU and negotiates a new trade deal with the EU.

Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks a…

"Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic."

Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#294

Post by youngtaff » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 9:51 PM UTC

sievebrain wrote: post #109

djaychela wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"More than enough money" (and certainly the figures I've seen people bandying about) assumes that the cost of accessing the EU market (which I think we will have to pay) would be zero. I think it will be a significant proportion of the amount we were paying (net) to the EU, and in addition there will be other costs which people are just starting to cotton onto as well. The main thing is that at the moment, we really…

WTO max tariffs (worst case scenario) are 4%. But the currency has weaked by about 8%. So even if max tariffs are applied tomorrow, UK goods are still cheaper to buy in the EU than before! In practice, if the EU doesn't strike a deal with the UK (which it won't) then I think it will suffer more exits. Because the EU has spent years trying to sign free trade deals with America, Canada and other places. If it turns aro…

Didn't the EU's approach to Greece already send a message that the EU doesn't have EU citizen's best interests at heart?

Greece is a country where the population were 'sacrificed' to bail out French and German bankers (if you look where the bailout funds actually went most never hit Greece)

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#295

Post by Wintamute » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 10:19 PM UTC

mpweiher wrote: post #292

Wintamute wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to put such economic under-performance down to at least in part the frankly outdated 70s era customs union that the EU is based on. China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world [1] ... rather than just judging countries o…

Citation needed: Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. Hmm...the numbers appear to disagree with your claim: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world[1] . Hmm...the article does not say that China is the source of the ratings:…

Ugh should've checked my sources a little better. Your criticisms are fair, but I stand by the spirit of my comment - especially the final sentence.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#296

Post by monk_e_boy » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 11:26 PM UTC

AnonymousPlanet wrote: post #264

monk_e_boy wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The leave campaign was made up of a lot of random people who all had different ideas. You pick one who has an idea that you agree with and vote for that person. Not everyone in the leave campaign agreed with "Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week" .... the people who DID don't want to fund science with that money. I assume that have another idea for where that money will come from.

Ah, so a lot of random people all make different promises and every voter believes in their favourite pick. For every broken promise you just have to point at the "random people" and say 'Booya, that promise doesn't count" even if all promises get broken. Neat trick.

The stay argument was 'more of the same' and millions of us can't live with more of the same.

I need money for food. For shelter. For clothes. There are a lot of us really far down on the maslow's hierarchy of needs. We need change, even if that change is chaotic.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#297

Post by monk_e_boy » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 11:36 PM UTC

vidarh wrote: post #237

monk_e_boy wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically yes. But I imagine that if they did everyone would be incensed and vote leave - to send a message. Whoever was in power at the time would be hoisted out in short order.

What makes you think that? The vote was met with such shock that it has re-raised the prospect of Scottish independence, and caused calls for referendums on Ireland, and has triggered the start of a small movement for independence for London (yes, most of the people who signed the change.org petition probably did it as a joke/out of anger, but there are groups organising more serious endeavours), and the signals all…

It's sort of like D&D. Everyone in the country had rolled their character. Assume one roll of a D20. People who rolled 13+ were doing OK in life. 19s and 20s were rich. 1 to 12s are poor.

Cameron (our DM) came along and gave us all a free re-roll.

People with 10 or less voted yes. 11 - 15 were about 50/50 depending on risk aversion. 16 - 20 voted no.

The numbers are almost always going to sway in favour of change, there are too many people down at the bottom.

Sure, more options on how to leave would have been amazing, left-exit was interesting, green-exit was also interesting. Right-racist-exit was bonkers, but people liked it.

But remember that remain-the-same and remain-and-re-negotiate had both been tried. And for millions and millions of people it was shit. Utter shit. Credit card chomping, crappy zero hour job, minimum wage, second hand clothes, crappy car, no life insurance, no pension, crap.

Next time you're in an Oxfam shop look at us. Picking over dead man suits for our next job interview. The shame of it. Jobs gone. High streets gone. Only option is to move to London away from elderly parents, our kids, our friends.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#298

Post by hardlianotion » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 11:37 PM UTC

mpweiher wrote: post #293

hardlianotion wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not precisely. The idea is that no discussions about anything will occur before Article 50 is invoked. Article 50 kicks off negotiations for the practicalities of leaving the EU. After that, and only after that, negotiations for UK's following status are supposed to take place. Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic. Amicable and realistic talks a…

"Neither of these conditions are in the interest of the EU or the UK if talks are to be amicable and realistic." Well, that's your opinion. EU officials and heads of government appear to disagree with your view of what's best for them, having consistently and unerringly insisted that there will be NO negotiations whatsoever until Article 50 is invoked.

Except that this is not the case. In the last week, already, we have had senior government officials from several member countries recognising that this is not a realistic stance. And the foreign secretary explicitly mentions that UK is having precisely these conversations.

The new administration is setting up a brexit department and accumulating expertise necessary to start negotiations. Talk is of article 50 invocation by year end (I think).

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#299

Post by tremon » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 11:47 PM UTC

teekert wrote: post #91

peteretep wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you specify some of the "EU regulations" that we should be getting out from under?

Well, for example all the bad stuff TTIP will bring the rest of Europe? Everybody here is pissed about TTIP. Now the Brits vote to get into a position to do something about such undemocratic bs and suddenly they are the bad guys? I see the pro-EU marketing campaign in which all the smart, rich and famous people that you should want to be like, say pro EU things, is working well. Even among the intellectual HN crowd.…

All this anti UK sentiment is caused by fear mongering from the pro-EU lobby.

And the xenophobic posturing of the Leave side is not to blame?

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#300

Post by tremon » Wed, Jul 13, 2016, 12:48 AM UTC

endeavour wrote: post #38

PLenz wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'll of course be allowed to do the research - the question is who is going to pay for it as much of the funding comes from the EU.

EU money doesn't come out of thin air. It comes from taxpayers. The UK is a net contributor to the EU so the UK government could choose to fund all current commitments and still be better off.

The UK is a net contributor to the EU so the UK government could choose to fund all current commitments and still be better off.

As another commenter has posted [1], this had already been debunked in December last year [2]:

This claim is based on the UK being a “net contributor” to the EU budget as a whole. The size of that net contribution varies, but according to analysis [..] about 0.6% of nominal GDP. Models of impact to the UK economy on Brexit vary. [..] even the more optimistic assessments of the UK’s economic performance following a Brexit [..] model an immediate loss in GDP for the transition years following a Brexit. The size of that loss is substantially larger than the current net contribution of the UK to the EU budget.

[Brexit] is a sure-fire short term loss, wiping any free money for R&I investment until at least a decade down the line – according to the most optimistic scenarios.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12081215

[2] http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/05/debunking-the-m...