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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#281

Post by usef- »

harimau777 wrote: post #226
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Were we struggling to do this before? We literally couldn't. > Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does. > What is now enabled? LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

I think you missed the core of their question: What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?

Do we apply a bar this high for any other company/job/business? Saving gov/tax money aka "billing NASA 1/20th what SLS does" doesn't count as worth it to you?

Reusing rockets reliably rather than "throwing them away" is a great achievement and I'm surprised people have to justify it on HN

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#282

Post by freetime2 »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

I don't like this either, but from the article:

> Although Nasdaq has already shortened the “seasoning” period before index inclusion to 15 trading days and FTSE Russell has slashed its waiting time to five days (and S&P Dow Jones is reportedly considering something similar), most share indices weight firms in proportion to the value only of shares they have released for public trading (the “free float”). For SpaceX, this means just the $75bn or so of stock it intends to issue in June—so its initial weight in the S&P 500 will be around 0.1%. The NASDAQ 100 is an exception, and has changed its rules to weight companies at up to three times their free float, in an apparent effort to woo Mr Musk. Even so, SpaceX’s probable initial weight in this $40trn index will still only be around 0.5%.

So people who hold ETFs that track the S&P 500 probably don't have too much to worry about. People invested in the NASDAQ 100 probably have more to be outraged about - but then again I suppose if you're invested in the NASDAQ 100, you may be consider more exposure to SpaceX to be a good thing.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#283

Post by minton »

worik wrote: post #206
thuuuomas wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you use Grok multiple times per day? Is Grok solving Erdos problems?

> Do you use Grok multiple times per day? No body who has a choice is using Grok > Is Grok solving Erdos problems? Mēh! At a slower rate than models a fraction of the price

> No body who has a choice is using Grok

The Grok app had over 100 million downloads in 2025, over 60 million active users, and generated $350 million in revenue. That’s a lot of people being forced to use it.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#284

Post by marcus_holmes »

haldujai wrote: post #267
stingraycharles wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

It’s actually quite a lot worse than even doctors in training except for highly constrained experimental settings and a few very nice applications that are mostly too tedious/impractical for a human to do or are very basic detection tasks. I am a radiologist and researcher predominately focused on AI.

Thanks for the informed take :)

Do you think this will result in more routine/boring/tedious tests? Is the bottleneck on these things the human time to analyse them?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#285

Post by delfinom »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

>And this is the more important part. As long as you're But why? The US population is set to dramatically shrink in the next 30 years. Where does all the money come from?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#286

Post by mandeepj »

willsmith72 wrote: post #252
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

this is disgusting corruption, a direct wealth transfer from the many to the few. shame on everyone involved

> this is disgusting corruption

The guy called 401(k)s a Ponzi scheme. Now, he's coming after them to loot.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#287

Post by dangus »

timmg wrote: post #8

The way I've been thinking about it: there is too much money trying to pour into the market. That's why valuations are so high. Maybe getting more of these big private companies public will bring valuations down a bit. (Just my impression. No math or financial studies behind it :)

Corporations across the board are experiencing record profitability. That's the reason behind the high valuations.

This isn't true of AI companies...yet. But these are companies entering the market with pre-IPO userbase (including lots of B2B) numbers that Meta and YouTube would have dreamed of before their acquisition/IPO.

I think this whole situation is very sleazy and corrupt, but ultimately my prediction is that nothing serious will come of it. Even the exposure of index and passive investing is overstated.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#288

Post by notepad0x90 »

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

this sounds like a reddit comment too much. why would trillions of dollars improve your quality of life. a bunch of companies get investments from a bunch of VCs who took out loans... and that means your quality of life should improve?

And what's more crap exactly? it feels like your grasping at straws to take one set of things and associate them with others. yeah, lots of terrible products out there, lots of enshittification, lots of topics of discussion there. But AI and GPUs are being used in such a diverse way it is impossible to have one opinion on it all like how you're trying to.

I'm not even disagreeing (or agreeing with you), I'm just saying that's a lazy comment to make. if these companies making profits without paying taxes, that's a voter problem (not even politics, just people being shitty voters, self not excluded).

For everyone else who might think they have a better formed opinion on this topic, I only ask that you apply the same level of passion to how the US national debt is now 120% of the GDP. The government is fighting wars and printing money, devaluing your wealth, and indebting your country to previously unseen levels. At least the banks and VCs are using their money (unless they get a bail out again), not your actual tax money, and the tax money and wealth of generations of Americans. You have a president literally stealing billions of dollars in broad day light from literally you.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#289

Post by roflulz »

fragmede wrote: post #199
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...
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