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New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#281

Post by munificent »

tosser0001 wrote: post #236
Veen wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That assumes outrage is motivated primarily by flawed systems and not the psychological and social benefits that accrue to those who express the most outrage. It may also be true that outrage is not the best way to solve systemic problems.

I think in some cases though there are systems that funnel people into places that seem designed to evoke engagement and often the engagement triggers outrage. I wish Jack Dorsey at Twitter would take a look at the absolute shit-show that is "Trends for You" in the Explore section. It's nothing but the most outraged people trying to whip everyone into a frenzy. I try to resist going in there, but every once in a whil…

> take a look at the absolute shit-show that is "Trends for You" in the Explore section.

I finally figured out a good solution for that. Click the gear and turn off personalized trends. Then set the country to a language you don't speak.

I don't know a lick of Latvian, but now Twitter is all about telling me what's going on over there.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#282

Post by icelancer »

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #207
icelancer wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The damage to the economy is already here You think it can't get worse?

On the contrary, I know it will get worse regardless of what we do. The question is does it get more worse with a long drawn out lock-down or a short and stern one? EDIT: a word

I'll support lockdowns when the governments (local, state, federal) provide an economic relief package to go with it for all the businesses that will suffer absurd losses.

It's real easy to shut down businesses and livelihoods when politicians are not responsible for the economic fallout.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#283

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

redisman wrote: post #208
quartzite wrote: post #84

It will be impossible for us to permanently stop the spread with half measures. As viral spread continues due to half hearted social distancing, when will we be able to return to normalcy? Given the characteristics of this virus even a few cases floating around seem to be enough to reignite contagion. So we persist in stasis for a month or a year with no end in sight while the economy begins to collapse, which will a…

These current shutdowns are really just to buy some time for all the steps you talked about. Basically get a re-try and try to go for a more SK/Taiwan style approach.

Yup. And all because people don't understand exponential growth.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#284

Post by munificent »

IAmEveryone wrote: post #228
s1artibartfast wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the applicable concept concept is that cancle culture is ineffective at changing minds and a more compassionate approach is more appropriate in both the short and long run. Hate and shame feeds reactionary behavior and is counter productive. If you disagree with someone, empathize with them as a human being and explain how their behavior is hurting others

Hate and shame are evolutionary mechanisms to get people to follow group norms. As long as they hurt (something you seem to accept), people will try to avoid them. It’s also worth noting that these are mild measures compared to the other stick societies like to use, criminal law. If people felt confident that rapists were prosecuted not just in cases where their victims number in the dozens (Weinstein, Crosby), they…

Yes, but those mechanisms evolved when shaming meant doing so in person to someone in front of a dozen other people in a hunter-gatherer society.

That same mechanism amplified by social media is no longer as adaptive. It's natural and fairly reasonable to snap at someone if they are rude to you. But if you jam a bullhorn in their face and yell into that, it's no longer appropriate. The emotion and impulse are the same, but the technology changes the manifestation of them.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#285

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

Kiro wrote: post #273
dboreham wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They acted earlier.

They also use tools that Americans will never accept (especially not the HN crowd) since it violates privacy.

I honestly think that the need is great enough in this case, but there's no way the powers would ever be given back.

Mind you, once enough people die, many things will change.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#286

Post by devy »

vincentmarle wrote: post #252
throwaway5752 wrote: post #129

There is no doubt Cuomo should be the national point person for the response to the crisis based on his performance so far. He is independently working with regional manufacturing to retool to make critical medical PPE and ventilators, and has organized a regional coalition including CT, NJ, and PA. I have not agreed with him all the time, but his crisis management has been exemplary and he will have saved many lives…

I think that Gov Newsom of CA has been doing a way better job than Cuomo: - implements stricter measures faster and more decisively, while having a lower case count - doesn't fight with his mayors or the President - no false promises or statements that need to be taken back days later

California's population density cannot compare to Downstate New York, so there are some advantages to implement social distancing measures in CA than in NY/NYC.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#287

Post by fennecfoxen »

vkou wrote: post #269
fennecfoxen wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For good and for ill, it is Constitutionally problematic to "lock down" an entire state, as it is essentially placing millions of people under arrest, which in the general case is a stupefyingly terrible power for any government to wield. On the other hand, the state can totally shut down businesses. In circumstances like this, it is not suspect in the least. I will further note that for Cuomo to be criminally prosec…

> For good and for ill, it is Constitutionally problematic to "lock down" an entire state, as it is essentially placing millions of people under arrest, which in the general case is a stupefyingly terrible power for any government to wield. I don't understand why this meme keeps getting repeated, when the power to quarantine has been rather conclusively litigated in the courts.

The power to quarantine individuals and groups of infected people has been well-litigated. But it is a very new thing indeed to tell 7 or 8 million people at a time, around 99% of whom are still expected to be uninfected, that they are now threats, and are under some form of house arrest. This is unprecedented and has never been litigated.

New York's quarantine law, in particular, allows you to challenge the quarantine order in court after 3 days. It is then on the state to demonstrate clear and convincing evidence that you — specifically you — pose a clear threat to the safety of others, and that your confinement is the least restrictive means to contain this threat.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#288

Post by bsder »

henryfjordan wrote: post #278
quartzite wrote: post #84

It will be impossible for us to permanently stop the spread with half measures. As viral spread continues due to half hearted social distancing, when will we be able to return to normalcy? Given the characteristics of this virus even a few cases floating around seem to be enough to reignite contagion. So we persist in stasis for a month or a year with no end in sight while the economy begins to collapse, which will a…

> Massive and systematic society wide testing is the first step, the second step is the bulk manufacture of demonstrated COVID-19 treatments. The third is ramping up hospital capacity. By the time we would get tests and hospital beds, we'd already be too deep into the crisis for them to matter much. Millions will be dead. Garcetti, the mayor of Los Angeles, said last night that we are shutting down the city to buy ti…

> Our leaders have a good idea of what's necessary.

Some leaders who are listening to doctors and scientists see what is necessary.

California should have probably gone into lockdown earlier, but I think this was probably as fast as they could have reasonably moved.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#289

Post by pnw_hazor »

yibg wrote: post #131

Seems so piecemeal. We have models that work in parts of the world like Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. Is there any reason why the US and Europe can’t follow their model?

South Korea reformed their pandemic response procedures and preparations after MERS. The EU, UK, and US did not. Not sure about Taiwan.

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-co...

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#290

Post by ls612 »

neuronexmachina wrote: post #75
40four wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the growth is a result of a focused effort to ramp up testing. Meanwhile if we are to have any confidence in the numbers (we probably shouldn't), according to the John's Hopkins counts, New York state currently has a surprisingly low CFR. 38 deaths / 5715 cases = 0.7% CFR

Given the exponential growth curves, wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare the number of deaths right now to the number of cases a few days ago? On March 16 (4 days ago) there were 950 identified cases in New York state, yielding a 4% CFR. https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-cor...

No, because in other countries the fatalities and new cases have grown in tandem, not on a delay.

This is more indicative that the epidemiological models were somewhat accurate and the true CFR when you catch the mild cases is much closer to 1% than 3.5%.

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