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New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

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Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#71

Post by marcinzm »

DenisM wrote: post #50
dmreedy wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess would be because it's how a lot of essential workers get to work.

It might be better for the state to close the subway and pay for Lyft for all essential workers. Creates jobs for the drivers, gets essential workers where they need to be, closes the major infection channel. The drivers would be required to wear surgical masks and wash the back seat of the car before each passenger.

The subway at low usage is probably less likely to get you infected than a Lyft. You can touch basically nothing and stay 4-6 feet away from other people.

>The drivers would be required to wear surgical masks

There's already a shortage of masks for hospitals.

>wash the back seat of the car before each passenger.

You think they'd actually do that rather than getting more fares? Also, don't forget to clean every control in the back, the door handles, the inside door handles, seat belts and probably the air filter.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#72

Post by markkanof »

paleotrope wrote: post #43
marcinzm wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because without subways many of those essential services (including health care) stop functioning as workers can't get to their jobs. Then everything goes to hell as actual mass panic breaks out.

Seems to be little appreciation on the internet for the fact that even in this situation, a big chunk of the population still has to go to work otherwise everything will collapse.

Thank you for saying this, it's been bothering me for days. Sure all of us computer people can lock ourselves in our houses for long periods of time. Some of us, like me, have already been doing that for years, but there are so many jobs that really are essential to keeping society functional, not just healthcare workers. For example, what about people in the building trades. Plumbing, HVAC, electrical, etc. If my furnace goes out, it needs to be fixed. Still getting pretty darn cold here at night. I could pretend like I'm camping, but that isn't going to work very well for my 8 month old.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#73

Post by malandrew »

jakear wrote: post #32

So that’s CA and NY both with shelter in place. Strange that WA hasn’t implemented it yet.

Other than kids, I haven't seen anyone really violating the social distancing protocol. People are out and about but not really going near one another except for people that look like they live together (couples, families, etc.)

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#74

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #55
Whut wrote: post #44

I feel like we should just do this nation wide.

USA is huge, and the virus is hitting different areas with different intensities. Its spread is heavily impacted by population density and rates of random social encounters. A Nationwide lockdown might make sense if the goal was to snuff the infection out, but as of now the goal is to lower the peak of the curve. If you lock down too early, you extend the infection to a length of time that makes the lockdown impossib…

> A Nationwide lockdown might make sense if the goal was to snuff the infection out

The goal needs to be to snuff the infection out. Otherwise, we will be like this for the next year and a half while we wait for the vaccine, which IMO is not acceptable when a little extra short-term sacrifice can get us near eradication inside two months.

Also, even if the curve is mediated by density, it seems clear enough that a lack of density is not going to be sufficient to prevent it from becoming a crisis. The infection is spreading even in less dense cities like Atlanta, New Orleans, and Saint Louis.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#75

Post by neuronexmachina »

40four wrote: post #49
BoiledCabbage wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The side effects of exponential growth. It changes minds quickly.

I think the growth is a result of a focused effort to ramp up testing. Meanwhile if we are to have any confidence in the numbers (we probably shouldn't), according to the John's Hopkins counts, New York state currently has a surprisingly low CFR. 38 deaths / 5715 cases = 0.7% CFR

Given the exponential growth curves, wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare the number of deaths right now to the number of cases a few days ago? On March 16 (4 days ago) there were 950 identified cases in New York state, yielding a 4% CFR.

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-cor...

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#76

Post by cameldrv »

vehementi wrote: post #62
fiftyfifty wrote: post #56

It seems highly likely that the US is headed where the whole of Europe is now: over 100,000 positives, over 5,000 deaths. We waited too long for actions like this. It will take a month before we see a drop in cases and deaths

A month? Wouldn't it be more like 1-2 weeks?

The virus progresses from infection to death in more like 3 weeks, depending on medical care. Any change in infections wouldn't be seen for about that time.

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#77

Post by newen »

DenisM wrote: post #50
dmreedy wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess would be because it's how a lot of essential workers get to work.

It might be better for the state to close the subway and pay for Lyft for all essential workers. Creates jobs for the drivers, gets essential workers where they need to be, closes the major infection channel. The drivers would be required to wear surgical masks and wash the back seat of the car before each passenger.

You expect untrained contract workers to follow procedures like that?

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#78

Post by pmoriarty »

ilamont wrote: post #6

There is currently no plan in place to penalize individuals for gathering socially Then people won't take the rules seriously. Lots of people in this country still don't believe or understand how much damage this virus can inflict.

> > There is currently no plan in place to penalize individuals for gathering socially

> Then people won't take the rules seriously.

What should the government do to these people? Arrest them?

Already there are news headlines saying "US jails begin releasing prisoners to stem Covid-19 infections"[1][2]

and from that article, specifically relating to New York:

"New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Wednesday that city officials will this week identify individuals for release, including people who were arrested for minor crimes and those most vulnerable to infection due to underlying health problems.

"His announcement came hours after a guard and a prisoner tested positive for coronavirus at Rikers Island prison..

"Other New York prisons, such as Sing Sing, have had inmates test positive for coronavirus and one employee for the state's corrections department has died from it."

These prisons are breeding grounds for disease: "sinks often lack soap and hand sanitiser is considered contraband due to its alcohol content", and medical care in US prisons is often atrocious.

So by imprisoning people in overcrowded, unsanitary conditions you might effectively be giving them a death sentence and possibly putting the other inmates at risk from the people that came in from the outside world.

Another good article on the serious vulnerability of prisons during this outbreak: [3]

[1] - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51947802

[2] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632901

[3] - https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/17/21181515/c...

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#79

Post by syshum »

vehementi wrote: post #58
TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA is huge, and the virus is hitting different areas with different intensities. Its spread is heavily impacted by population density and rates of random social encounters. A Nationwide lockdown might make sense if the goal was to snuff the infection out, but as of now the goal is to lower the peak of the curve. If you lock down too early, you extend the infection to a length of time that makes the lockdown impossib…

> If you lock down too early, you extend the infection to a length of time that makes the lockdown impossible. Can you elaborate on what you mean by that?

This virus will be with everyone for 18+ months, the point of the lockdown is allow the Health system to catch up

If you lock down early you irreparably harm the local economy and simply delay a spike instead of "flattening the curve" unless you are willing to except a year long lock down, massive economic depression and the colapse of the US Dollar

Re: New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

#80

Post by bdcravens »

vehementi wrote: post #62
fiftyfifty wrote: post #56

It seems highly likely that the US is headed where the whole of Europe is now: over 100,000 positives, over 5,000 deaths. We waited too long for actions like this. It will take a month before we see a drop in cases and deaths

A month? Wouldn't it be more like 1-2 weeks?

We'll see an acceleration of cases, due to accelerated testing. Additionally, there's a 2-3 week period between infection and death for the worst cases, so barring spectacular new treatments, even a reduction in cases will take a few weeks to impact the death rate.
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