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Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

blog.benjamin-encz.de

281–290 of 413 posts

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

either way this drives up cost because it raises the amount a driver must make a month. obviously we dont have concrete numbers but if people are switching to uber only they probably would want to save a lot every month versus owning a car.

But when the driver is a computer those wages become effectively zero.

Yes, because offshore tech support is free...

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can believe that's their goal: I see little reason to believe they'll succeed in it, beyond making the market a bit bigger than the current taxi/minicab market. Just because they're very good at supplying an unlicensed minicab service (apparently subsidised by VC money in many areas) doesn't mean they can (i) run a minicab business at a profit so much more efficiently than every other minicab business in history th…

I know several friends in San Francisco that got rid of their cars for Uber. They spend about $500/month on Uber. Owning a car in SF is more expensive than that: monthly parking, insurance, parking where your destination is, gas, etc.

I know of whole demographics who don't even get cars because they can take the bus.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#283
post #159

tl;dr He thinks UberPool is a viable business with network effects, but Uber's valuation is too high. He didn't really support that well though. If everybody uses UberPool because the economy of scale tied to the network size is unbeatable, that's a lot of riders. It doesn't seem impossible on its face that owning the future replacement for public transport for like half the world wouldn't justify a high valuation.

This dismisal of UberPool is something we from many people who discuss Uber's business. I wonder why.

Because people taking taxis/Ubers don't generally like to share rides. See also car pools.

Now there is an argument that, given sufficient scale and intelligent routing, some sort of jitney bus system could work in a space between private taxis, driving yourself, and scheduled buses. Though that person would then need to explain why we don't really see this business model at any real scale today (in wealthier countries).

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#284

uber offers a better product than taxi services do. So if uber raised their rates to be comparable to a taxi services, i would still use uber because its a better experience. And because i learned that because they incentive it with overall lower rates.

>uber offers a better product than taxi services do.

Sometimes. I like not handling credit cards and cash. They're faster and more available in areas where taxi services are not great.

On the other hand, I had an Uber-X driver just today drive right past a clearly marked airport terminal entrance because his GPS didn't direct him there and "he hadn't been out to the airport in a while." It's unlikely that would happen with a cab.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean parents won't want to constantly move their car seats from vehicle to another on a regular basis?

Yeah, that's one big one. It's really anyone with a dependent that has equipment needs (car seats, hockey gear, etc.) "But, but, you can rent a car with a car seat!" That response ignores the fact that there are 4 different major categories of car seats, most kids need a specific one at different times of their lives, and if you have multiple kids you need the specific combination of seats. And of course, car seat in…

A car seat that can be adjusted into different sizes sounds like a minor part of the R&D needed for Ubertopia.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's customers are fucking g happy. What's the end game you're talking about? Have you invested into them? As a customer I LOVE them. As a student, I studied them in HBX.

In 2015, Amazon made $596,000,000 on revenues of $107,006,000,000, or a profit margin of 0.6%. In 2012 and 2014, it lost money. How long should investors wait to see a real profit? Should they expect revenue growth to continue indefinitely?

How much profit should they make?

If there was a machine where you could insert a 20 dollar bill and it spit out the 20 and an additional 12 cents, would you not use that machine?

How much would you pay to buy one?

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#287

uber offers a better product than taxi services do. So if uber raised their rates to be comparable to a taxi services, i would still use uber because its a better experience. And because i learned that because they incentive it with overall lower rates.

I would say the "better experience" argument is mostly true when you look at how payments are handled, but a taxi will pick you up and drop you off very much the same way as Uber does. A lot of cab companies have now implemented their own apps - so you can get a similar request-on-demand situation, only that you'll not be charged extra when demand goes up...

In the last city I lived pretty much all cab drivers were also Uber (black) drivers (or maybe it was the other way around). Regardless, pricing was very similar and often cheaper going with the regulated taxi rate.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#288
post #284

uber offers a better product than taxi services do. So if uber raised their rates to be comparable to a taxi services, i would still use uber because its a better experience. And because i learned that because they incentive it with overall lower rates.

>uber offers a better product than taxi services do. Sometimes. I like not handling credit cards and cash. They're faster and more available in areas where taxi services are not great. On the other hand, I had an Uber-X driver just today drive right past a clearly marked airport terminal entrance because his GPS didn't direct him there and "he hadn't been out to the airport in a while." It's unlikely that would happe…

Yes, but it's also not uncommon that cab drivers use their knowledge of the local streets in their advantage, which is a lot less likely when your average Uber driver relies on GPS navigation.

I particularly remember taking a cab in Las Vegas many years ago trying to get from one end of the strip to the other. I was an obvious tourist - so he took the "faster router" around the city - just to "realise" that the exit he was going to take was blocked due to construction work and he now had to do a huge detour.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#289
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a self driving world, peak traffic will be served by buses. (Or subways in cities that can handle it) Like everything - high bandwidth vehicles will do the bulk of the work, and seamlessly trade off to "last mile" self driving small vehicles.

> high bandwidth vehicles will do the bulk of the work, and seamlessly trade off to "last mile" self driving small vehicles. Still doesn't solve the problem - just moves it. If everyone in my office complex needs a ride to the bus around 5pm, and everyone at the other end of the bus line needs a ride home at 5:42pm when the bus arrives in SuburbTown, there will still be unmanageable shortages of self driving small ve…

You can fit 4 people in a self driving car pretty easily. Most people currently drive by themselves because it's too difficult to arrange on-demand carpools on your way to/from work.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence. That is clearly not true. See, for example: http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2016-12-08-01.aspx If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs). It's true that many people bargain hunt, but the people that don't (primarily business people who need to fly on short notice a…

That is clearly not true. See, for example: [Industry publication] A clarification: I meant that if you would show a net loss if you summed the net income of each airline in the industry since inception. To be fair, while it definitely isn't clearly not true, my statement certainly is not clearly true... ;) Some non-industry pubs backing my not-clearly-true statement: http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/borenste/downloa…

That is a very unfairly misleading metric, then.
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