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Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

blog.benjamin-encz.de

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Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#161

Post by komali2 »

exelius wrote: post #110

I think Uber's business model relies on self-driving cars. They're paying subsidies now to build a brand -- the name "Uber" has become synonymous with "pull out your cell phone and call for a ride" -- that will be very valuable once self-driving taxis become a commodity (which will happen shortly after their introduction). Uber is not a bet on who can build the most profitable taxi company now -- it's a bet on a bran…

Agreed, and the author even sets us up for this - again and again he mentions how the largest sink is the drivers, the largest cost is the drivers, the biggest blocker is the drivers. Remove the drivers from the equation and things suddenly become a lot simpler.

Imagine if instead of becoming an uber driver, you retrofit your car with an Uber Automated Car Taxi Converter(c), "guaranteed to put your car to work for you!"

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#162

Post by LordHumungous »

jerf wrote: post #136
iamcasen wrote: post #112

What OP, and everyone in this thread don't seem to understand is that Uber has waaaay more up it's sleeve than a mere taxi app. Uber has more data about traffic patterns in every major city they operate in, than any other entity, including the cities themselves. Uber can use that data as leverage in so many ways. They have an API, they are a logistics platform in a sense. Uber's endgame will be allowing people to plu…

"Uber has more data about traffic patterns in every major city they operate in, than any other entity, including the cities themselves." I imagine Google has approximately two to three orders of magnitude more data from cellphones and maps usage. Pull open your Uber app, zoom out until you see, say, 20 Uber drivers. They make a point here, a point there. The Android phones in cars would just make lines on your displa…

I'm pretty sure uber uses google maps in fact.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#163

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

niftich wrote: post #150
dageshi wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon is in a low margin commodity business with massive amounts of competition, but they're still massive and becoming even bigger because they do what everyone else can do just that little bit better that there's no real reason to switch away.

And now with them having become an online-only warehouse club [1] with Prime, there is even less reason to switch away. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warehouse_club

As a long time Prime user I've recently considered dropping my prime subscription. I need to spend a lot of money (even more than I already do) to make the P&P work and the film offering is getting worse and worse.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#164

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

dageshi wrote: post #95
vannevar wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a good point, but it doesn't change the prognosis. Uber will run out of runway long before that vision can be realized. And even if by some miracle it doesn't, it will find itself in a low-margin commodity business. Unless it can muscle its way into a monopoly, it can't win. Which explains the company's aggressiveness and anti-competitive nature.

Amazon is in a low margin commodity business with massive amounts of competition, but they're still massive and becoming even bigger because they do what everyone else can do just that little bit better that there's no real reason to switch away.

Amazon got kicked by Zalando for Fashion at least in Germany and despite heavy investments and promotions for fashion can't compete with Zalando.

If someone starts an electronics site on the same professional, data drive, aggressive level as Zalando, I'm sure Amazon is in trouble here in Germany.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#165

Post by jupp0r »

The author makes good points, but his understanding of Ubers vision is very limited. It's not about drivers or passengers, it's an API to get stuff from A to B, be it people or goods.

Also, describing self driving cars in city traffic as "unlikely" really misses the point that self driving cars are driving in city traffic right now and have been doing that for years. They are too expensive to be commercially viable, but that's definitely going to change in the near future.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#166

Post by code_duck »

metaphorm wrote: post #129
discodave wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Removing the driver reduces the price significantly, so the business model of cars on demand is probably viable outside of dense areas with self driving cars. That being said, for Uber to win the self driving car race they have to beat Google, Apple, Tesla, Didi and the automotive incumbents as Sarah Lacy has been pointing out for at least 12 months.

they don't have to beat those companies, they have to negotiate good rates for vendor services with those companies.

Or be acquired by one of them.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#167

Post by Keyframe »

mcguire wrote: post #89
Keyframe wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Existing user base?

You mean brand recognition? (What prevents a user from using more than one service?)

What prevents a user from using more than one service?

Customer inertia, among other things.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#168

Post by aetherson »

avn2109 wrote: post #68
CoffeeDregs wrote: post #52

The commercial airline industry has lost money over the whole of its existence. If I'm flying from NYC to DAL, I'm flying the cheapest carrier (with a slight nod to Frequent Flyer programs). I'm not sure how Uber, Lyft, etc are any different than Southwest, American, etc. Cab companies (which I hate) and airlines saw this years ago and promoted regulations to protect their fees (and, thereby, wages). Airlines lost th…

TFA and a lot of commenters here don't seem to understand that Uber doesn't want to compete with taxi services, which are a niche business to be disrupted en route to the real prize. It wants to compete with your car - imagine 12 lanes of L.A. traffic composed mostly of Ubers. That's their dream. They even admit this in public. [0] The day they can get cost per mile one penny below what you'd spend owning a Toyota Ca…

The article and your parent poster are basically saying:

"They lose money on every ride, and they have no way to ever turn that around (outside of a monopoly on driverless cars which they won't have), because any time they gain money on a ride, they'll attract indistinguishable competition."

Your response is: "Yes, they'll lose money on every ride, but they'll make it up with volume."

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#169

Post by mcguire »

ahuja_s wrote: post #154
mcguire wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain what Amazon's end game will be?

It's customers are fucking g happy. What's the end game you're talking about? Have you invested into them? As a customer I LOVE them. As a student, I studied them in HBX.

In 2015, Amazon made $596,000,000 on revenues of $107,006,000,000, or a profit margin of 0.6%. In 2012 and 2014, it lost money. How long should investors wait to see a real profit? Should they expect revenue growth to continue indefinitely?

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#170

Post by rplst8 »

dajohnson89 wrote: post #34
matthewaveryusa wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question then becomes: Is a global taxi dispatcher worth 70 billion dollars? Maybe. Probably not.

My hunch is yes. I decided to do some quick math. -NYC has ~13,605 licensed taxicabs. -The average annual net income for a NYC taxi (in 2015, probably a bit lower now) was $58,555. -$58,555 * 13,605 = $796,640,775 This figure is for taxis only, in one (big) city. It leads me to think that $70 billion is not an absurd number, globally. edit: sources: https://www.yellowcabnyctaxi.com/blog/new-york-city-taxi-rev... http…

Let's not forget, that revenue doesn't equal the value of a company either. Google's market cap is like $500B and their revenue is in the $70B range.
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