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Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

blog.benjamin-encz.de

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Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#251

Post by secabeen »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #232
secabeen wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that market is smaller than you may think. There are lots of factors that will drive people to own their own self-driving cars rather than rely exclusively on Uber/Lyft/Tesla Mobility, etc.

You mean parents won't want to constantly move their car seats from vehicle to another on a regular basis?

Yeah, that's one big one. It's really anyone with a dependent that has equipment needs (car seats, hockey gear, etc.)

"But, but, you can rent a car with a car seat!"

That response ignores the fact that there are 4 different major categories of car seats, most kids need a specific one at different times of their lives, and if you have multiple kids you need the specific combination of seats. And of course, car seat installation is hard and takes time, even with LATCH, and I wouldn't trust a random Uber driver just handed a seat to install it properly.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#252

Post by EpicEng »

CoffeeDregs wrote: post #144
EpicEng wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK... Using that approach I would assume that software has also lost money over the entirety of its existence. Perhaps not completely "untrue", but a silly way of looking at it and not what anyone would assume you were talking about.

Why would you assume that software-as-a-whole has lost money? The industry is full of un-subsidized, non-cyclical, high profit companies... Microsoft, Apple, Google, Oracle, Autodesk, IBM, EMC, CA Technologies, Saleforce.com, etc. Not sure why it's a silly way of looking at an industry's long term performance. It shows that, while occasional profits are made, the industry is prone to brutal, un-differentiated price c…

How much VC money has been pumped into failed business?

It's all rather irrelevant. I don't know if software has actually been a net loss, but I know that looking at failed airlines and extrapolating out to the successful ones is silly.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#253

Post by nunez »

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #147
notahacker wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can believe that's their goal: I see little reason to believe they'll succeed in it, beyond making the market a bit bigger than the current taxi/minicab market. Just because they're very good at supplying an unlicensed minicab service (apparently subsidised by VC money in many areas) doesn't mean they can (i) run a minicab business at a profit so much more efficiently than every other minicab business in history th…

Can't say I speak for everyone but I mostly walk to get to places and drive when I have to. I live close enough to an ALDI to get most of my groceries by walking and I can walk to work too. Owning a car means always needing a parking space, going out to get gas, paying for insurance, inspections, etc, having to be capable of driving (because when I'm sauced on a Saturday night I really want to get greasy food, but I…

Unfortunately most of the US isn't like Chicago or NYC.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#254

Post by djrogers »

wrsh07 wrote: post #237
notahacker wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What about when your commute, without any concern for parking, is 10 minutes, max? I doubt it would be that expensive If you want a car at the precise time everybody else happens to be commuting and commuters are the principal users of on-demand car services, it doesn't really matter whether your commute is shorter than some of the others. It's one extra car needed to be available every day at the time when all the…

In a self driving world, peak traffic will be served by buses. (Or subways in cities that can handle it) Like everything - high bandwidth vehicles will do the bulk of the work, and seamlessly trade off to "last mile" self driving small vehicles.

> high bandwidth vehicles will do the bulk of the work, and seamlessly trade off to "last mile" self driving small vehicles.

Still doesn't solve the problem - just moves it. If everyone in my office complex needs a ride to the bus around 5pm, and everyone at the other end of the bus line needs a ride home at 5:42pm when the bus arrives in SuburbTown, there will still be unmanageable shortages of self driving small vehicles - unless you own your own.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#255

Post by sleepyhead »

ahuja_s wrote: post #21

I live in Singapore and Uber is a little cheaper than the excellent cab services which operated here even before Uber. There is a big competitor to Uber here called Grab. I switched to Uber because their service is good, drivers are gracious and cars are nice and they give me good offers. Last year I took 300 Uber rides, never once taking the usual Comfort Delgro Cab because their drivers suck. If prices were the sam…

I haven't taken that much taxi in SG but never had a bad driver. Always polite, speak excellent English and knows where to go. Unlike in MY. They are however often very hard to find. So many taxis but whenever I seem to want one they are all occupied.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#256

Post by moultano »

erispoe wrote: post #120
moultano wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a business with natural network effects. The service that has the most cars on the road has the most liquidity to clear the market, and will have the shortest wait times. People pay for rides in both time and money, and you can be "cheaper" by getting a car to show up faster.

Network effects don't accumulate to a natural monopoly in this case. Yes you need a fleet large enough to get to a sweet price / waiting time optimum, but each new car in your fleet has a diminishing marginal effect. You could say exactly the same for airlines: there's network effect. Each new plane allows your to fly more rotations, have more frequent lines, open new routes... The reality is that most people take de…

That inflection point happens after you have a _lot_ of cars on the road, much more any new entrant will commit. It's equivalent to saying the power company gets diminishing returns from additional supply after they've built enough capacity to meet current demand. No one but the natural monopoly actually gets to that point.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#257

Post by zevyoura »

shawndrost wrote: post #103

Why theorize about "economies of scale won't help"? We know the answer is "yes they will" -- Uber's US operations were profitable in 1Q16[1] and that included many non-scaled markets. Like I said 8 years ago[2]: "Facebook made ~$200mm in 2008. It's pretty clear they could profit on those revenues, and instead are choosing to invest in further growth (with outside capital)." [1] https://skift.com/2016/12/21/uber-isnt-…

From your first link:

> After turning a slight profit in the in the first quarter of this year, Uber lost $100 million in the U.S. in the second quarter. The loss increased in the third quarter, the person said.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of their U.S. business.

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#258

Post by couchand »

wrsh07 wrote: post #237
notahacker wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What about when your commute, without any concern for parking, is 10 minutes, max? I doubt it would be that expensive If you want a car at the precise time everybody else happens to be commuting and commuters are the principal users of on-demand car services, it doesn't really matter whether your commute is shorter than some of the others. It's one extra car needed to be available every day at the time when all the…

In a self driving world, peak traffic will be served by buses. (Or subways in cities that can handle it) Like everything - high bandwidth vehicles will do the bulk of the work, and seamlessly trade off to "last mile" self driving small vehicles.

seamlessly?

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#259

Post by notahacker »

wrsh07 wrote: post #237
notahacker wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What about when your commute, without any concern for parking, is 10 minutes, max? I doubt it would be that expensive If you want a car at the precise time everybody else happens to be commuting and commuters are the principal users of on-demand car services, it doesn't really matter whether your commute is shorter than some of the others. It's one extra car needed to be available every day at the time when all the…

In a self driving world, peak traffic will be served by buses. (Or subways in cities that can handle it) Like everything - high bandwidth vehicles will do the bulk of the work, and seamlessly trade off to "last mile" self driving small vehicles.

> In a self driving world, peak traffic will be served by buses

Huh? If suburban Americans aren't opting to share rides into work now and don't have or want bus services now, particularly not connecting bus services, what difference is non-human drivers going to make?

Re: Why I don't believe in Uber's Success

#260

Post by josu »

glhaynes wrote: post #174
josu wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They created a product that people love. I live in Mexico City and my experience is similar to the one described in Singapore plus the fact that, so far, nobody has ever been kidnapped while hailing an Uber. Riding a cab has gone from slightly dangerous and more often than not displeasing experience, to having a private driver that knows exactly where I want to go and how to get there. Besides, not having to use cash…

So there you go, maybe not in the US, but in many countries where the taxi industry totally sucked, Uber has already succeeded big time. Succeeded at making money? Or, failing that, succeeded at building a business that someday may be able to make money?

They could double the price of a taxi ride and most people would still use Uber. So, I don't know if they are losing money in Mexico, but even if they are they could turn it around today.
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