Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#271

Post by gregwebs » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:16 PM UTC

Ancapistani wrote: post #24

crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

> there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. I think that it is at least somewhat likely that it was the result of the lab's activities, but your assertion here has a huge dose of selection bias. If the virology labs studying coronaviruses were placed randomly around the world, you'd be correct - but t…

China is a big country. Wuhan is 900km away from the bat caves that are believed to be the breeding ground for these viruses.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#272

Post by the_cat_kittles » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:16 PM UTC

reducesuffering wrote: post #247

tbenst wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author is irresponsibility propagating a conspiracy theory and elevating its status in the public’s mind. I’m a bioscientist. It’s frustrating to respond with evidence and in good faith, and be downvoted by those who simply disagree. But sadly it appears that the loudest voice prevails over reason. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00599-7

Empirically, HN collectively gets things like this right much more often than not. It’s been right about the coming pandemic as early as beginning of Feb, it’s been right about masks when it was dismissed by CDC, and lab leak hypothesis has been dismissed as crank the whole time while building more and more of an implausible case that it wasn’t lab-leaked. HN has been coming around to that too. Of course, nothing is…

ive been here for a decade... its my opinion that HN very much does NOT get things like this right more often than not. its very hard to even guage what the hn opinion is to begin with

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#273

Post by Pyramus » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:16 PM UTC

bpodgursky wrote: post #227

Pyramus wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are mixing two theories here: A) A lab leak B) Gain of function research. My understanding is that A) is very much possible because it has happened before (SARS), but we have no evidence yet (and might never acquire). For B) however, from my limited understanding, there is no strong evidence. We only know about a fraction of existing coronaviruses out there and given we observe one, that has caused a pandemic, th…

The Wuhan lab was absolutely involved in gain-of-function research. This has been widely reported https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments... > What's more, Wuhan Institute of Virology scientists have for the past five years been engaged in so-called "gain of function" (GOF) research, which is designed to enhance certain properties of viruses for the purpose of anticipating future pandemics. Gain-…

I'm not doubting that at all, see also this statement by a US embassy [1].

What I'm saying is that we don't have strong (any?) evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is the result of gain of function research. It is entirely possible but the majority of the scientists who do gain of function research say it's unlikely (given what we know today, which might change).

Again, a credible source saying the opposite is appreciated.

[1] https://ge.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan-in...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#274

Post by esja » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:16 PM UTC

Invictus0 wrote: post #249

xdavidliu wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no strong opinions on this matter, but I'm having difficulty understanding the sarcasm here. Can someone translate for me? Is the un-sarcastic version of parent's argument that most of the claims against this being a leak were put forth by a single organization, EcoHealth Alliance, which has an agenda for convincing people that this is not a leak?

I'm with you, the parent's sarcasm is really malformed. They're claiming that EcoHealth has conflicts of interests that led them to disavow the WIV lab theory.

Are you saying EcoHealth/Daszak do not have material conflicts of interest in this matter? On what basis?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#275

Post by hsitz » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Yes, exactly. I would add, though, that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", in many people's minds, seems to be combined with a suspected intentional act by the Chinese government, to unleash a dangerous virus on the rest of the world. I think we should dismiss that part of the theory (it's of course not impossible, just not likely, mostly fun fodder for conspiracy nuts). But as far as infectious disease labs all across the world being dangerous places that need strict safety and security measures, duh, yes.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#276

Post by alephr » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

A lot of the discussion I see on this hinges on possibility and not strongly believing the claim is false. Sure, this theory is "possible" in some sense but I rarely see anyone presenting concrete evidence for it and I don't think I've seen anyone who supports it suggest a piece of evidence that would change their mind on it.

If most of the discussion on an idea is about how people dismiss it or how any evidence is being covered up the idea might not be that strong.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#277

Post by 3327 » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Maybe if it wasn’t CONCEALED by the government in the country of origin, our lives would be different now.

Talk about that will you?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#278

Post by dvt » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #193

dragontamer wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is building up its navy to protect itself. If they lose the South China Sea, they could be blockaded and starved of energy, resources, and food. They're building to reach parity with the US Navy or even outgun it, and they're trying to stall long enough that they can win should there be an encounter. China has absolutely no chance to meet head-to-head against a US Carrier Strike Group on neutral territory. Ab…

> China has absolutely no chance to meet head-to-head against a US Carrier Strike Group on neutral territory. Absolutely none, and the US has TEN Carrier Strike Groups. Right now. But take a look at the shipbuilding output they've achieved. In ten to twenty years, China could easily rival the US Navy.

> In ten to twenty years, China could easily rival the US Navy.

People said this 20 years ago. We've already started to see the CCP losing ground (see HK), and I'm quite bearish on the Party going forward. Jinping is 67, and I expect to see a major power struggle which will leave the Chinese Communist Party crippled when he dies.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#279

Post by polartx » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

notsobig wrote: post #226

synergy20 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall China passed an urgent law at lightening speed to enforce safe practice in the bio-virus-labs across the nation a few weeks after the outbreak. It might tell you something. Also it refused fiercely to let foreign experts in to investigate, which is also hard to explain other than something MUST be hidden at all costs.

"urgent law at lightning speed" is unnecessary and extreme bias. It might tell me something if you included a source. A rational actor would take the opportunity to do this regardless of whether or not the source was known at the time. If it were even a possibility, you would hope they would use the outbreak as a reminder to take containment practices as seriously as possible. Whether or not to allow foreign investig…

>A rational actor...

Let’s remember this is China we’re talking about. Before you hand wave that away, consider the emphasis that China places on keeping-up-appearances at practically any cost

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#280

Post by pageandrew » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 9:17 PM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #234

pageandrew wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the leak was likely accidental. That said, I think you gloss over the fact that Gain of Function Research (artificial selection) was certainly taking place inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and that US intelligence has concluded that the WIV was engaging in classified research for the Chinese military, unbeknownst to the rest of the world. So, its not quite as simple as a collection mistake.

I don't find that compelling. Our own US scientists specifically stated they did not see the biological markers of tampering, and I don't see any reason we shouldn't be trusting them. I think there are a lot of people who want to believe China is evil incarnate and things are just as black and white as that. I think that's a mental shortcut with easy emotional payout. I would encourage you to read the link. Here is a…

I don't think China is evil incarnate, but I do know that it is confirmed that they have performed GOF research (https://www.newsweek.com/controversial-wuhan-lab-experiments...), that there were reports in 2018 that they were not following proper lab safety practices (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-officials-raised-alarms-a...), and that the Chinese military was engaged in secret experimentation.

This is all circumstantial, of course. But, that combined with the fact that COVID originated in Wuhan, thousands of kilometers away from the bat caves of Yunnan province, yet in the same city as the only BSL-4 laboratory in China, that's hard to ignore.