Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't have the app (or car) so I can't verify for myself, but now it's hard to reconcile your statement with the twitter thread analysis I referenced above. EDIT: Maybe it's a discrepancy about what a "confirmation" is? If the author of the twitter thread is correct, the "confirmation" is just a large button on the screen that doesn't require password re-entry, which is not much of a confirmation. He proposes that…
I have the app and now exactly how it works. That's why I replied. I can even do a screen recording and show you, if you want.
Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
271–280 of 360 posts
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
Correct me if I'm wrong (and I've been a Tesla fan for years, and invested back when they first IPOd), but isn't the Porsche Taycan superior to the Model S in every way (except for a slightly shorter range)? If Porsche can "catch up" and leapfrog the Model S in just their first iteration, I'm pretty sure Tesla's growth is going to slow down significantly going forward.
The Taycan is a dud. Slower (acceleration), more expensive, less range, worse software, no Autopilot, no supercharger stations. Who wants that? The efficiency is so bad in the Taycan it' laughable. With similar battery sizes, the Model S gets 100 miles more range. Porsche is many years behind Tesla in understanding electric drivetrain efficiency. For the fast version (Turbo S), the Taycan is $80k more expensive than…
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#273All I see is verbal narratives that don't justify the price. Just saying that Tesla is good company, grows fast, has advantage, is not enough. Everything can be overvalued. Narratives without numbers are just as valid for $100B valuation as they are for $500B or $1 Trillion. Has any Tesla investor done the investor math justifying the price compared against SP500 Index Fund for 6% total return for example. Even if Te…
> Has any Tesla investor done the investor math justifying the price compared agaomst SP500 Index Fund for 6% total return for example. Come on, no one does this for any stock. No stock has a value exactly in-line with math would tell you. Stocks like Amazon have been completely overvalued (as compared to what math tells you) for close to 20 years. If you haven't yet learned that stock markets are based more around h…
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
ICE autos are locked into three near-monopoly supports: - Manufacturing scale is enormous, with vast supply chains and deeply ingrained middlemen & unions locking in prices. - Sales is via local monopolies(-ish) which dictate what models & variants of a few brands are available & manufactured. - Power comes from an infrastructure of commodity stations which are not controlled by vehicle manufacturers. Most EVs are a…
There is one place where it currently is a pretty large failure, and that is repair shops. The waiting times are very large compared to other manufactures.
HOWEVER, other manufacturers build for repairs: there are high-cost repair services provided at every dealership. Yes you can get a car fixed, but that's because it's built to need fixing often & terminally.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#275How is Tesla worth more than Ford? Their F-150 alone outsells all Tesla models combined
Before MoviePass collapsed into a burning pile of dog poop, there was a target price of $3000... Speculators love speculating.
Side note - I bought $1000 of movie pass at $0.02. I never expected it to increase in value (which it hasn't, I'm sure), but I thought it was fun to say that I owned 0.5% of the available shares of a company.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
they do "over the air" updates? Of the software that powers the vehicle? Isn't that an _exceptionally_ dangerous vector?
In what way? Sign updates, validate signature, and only apply when car is off and at home charging. Maybe some POST/rollback logic even possible. It's not much different than going to a dealer to get ECU flashed.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#277Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#278The article doesn’t mention (or I’ve missed it) the short squeeze aspect which is definitely one of the drivers. https://investorplace.com/2020/01/play-tesla-stock-short-squ...
from that link: >“We are encouraged by Tesla’s execution and think it deserves to be among the world’s most valuable auto companies, and is perhaps the most important auto company in the world given its EV leadership. However, we think investors will be presented with more attractive opportunities to own the stock in the future,” Jonas said. It's that "opportunities to own the stock in the future part" that got me. P…
Wasn't that also true eight months ago? The stock was trading then at $180 rather than $590.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only competitors are going to be the new car companies because they will adopt the same model Tesla has where they own their own dealerships. The general form of your argument is correct, however existing automobile companies aren't all wedded to their dealer networks. Volvo (which is now owned by Geely in China) took their Polestar performance brand and launched an entire automobile brand a few years ago. They n…
> And when I say, "taking orders," I mean over the web. You cannot buy or lease a Polestar automobile in a Volvo dealership. How does this not sound like "working around the dealership model that is engrained in traditional auto manufacturers"? It also brings up the point - how will their existing dealer network react when they get replaced by web sales (like some Office episode)? Telsa has none of that baggage.
They haven't staged a mass protest, I am unaware of any lawsuits. I do not believe that Volvo dealers here in Canada are lobbying for it to be illegal for the Polestar vehicle to be sold in Canada.
I can't saw what goes on south of the 49th parallel, but what I can say is that from what I have observed, if Volvo has dealership baggage, that baggage is lightweight and compliant.
Which is my point. There may be baggage, but it might not be the encumbrance that we have speculated about. That may be uneven: Perhaps the "Big Three" have an albatross and an anvil around their necks, while (relatively) smaller brands can be more nimble.
Recall that the comment I replied to said that other companies can't catch them. I doubt Volvo will catch Tesla, but Geely certainly could, and clearly not all companies are following Nissan and BMW's example: Volvo did not launch Polestar in their existing dealerships.
p.s. That being said, Volvo just announced the XC40 P8, which is a "pure electric" model, so they are having it both ways: You can buy an electric car from Polestar, over the internet, or buy an electric Volvo from a dealer.
Is that a superior strategy? I doubt it, but it is a way to harvest revenue from "legacy customers" that want to do business with a dealership they can touch and feel.
Will Volvo "beat Tesla?" I doubt it. They might not be able to, and for that matter, I doubt Geely even want to try. They have a portfolio of brands, and each one has its place in their strategy.
All I'm saying is that I don't think the dealer network is the thing that will ensure Tesla's victory. At the moment, I think it's their supercharger network, their technology around range, and their brand cachet.
Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
#280I for the life of me cannot figure out what could possibly justify this valuation for Tesla. Sure, their cars are pretty great, they have a ravid fanbase, and they have a pretty entertaining CEO who excels at driving interest in the company. They would need to execute perfectly and deliver more cars to customers than Volkswagen in a few years to justify such a valuation right now, and I just don't see that happening…
Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…