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Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#191

Post by mediaman »

xenospn wrote: post #50
fjabre wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is a disrupter and he is disrupting this industry turning it on its head. We've been stuck in the same boring recycled car designs and concepts for decades and here comes Elon with the promise of self driving flying cars on their way to Mars with SpaceX in the background making incredible strides forward everyday. To be honest I think this valuation is too low. Elon continues to eat the competition's lunch on a…

Correct me if I'm wrong (and I've been a Tesla fan for years, and invested back when they first IPOd), but isn't the Porsche Taycan superior to the Model S in every way (except for a slightly shorter range)? If Porsche can "catch up" and leapfrog the Model S in just their first iteration, I'm pretty sure Tesla's growth is going to slow down significantly going forward.

The Taycan is a dud.

Slower (acceleration), more expensive, less range, worse software, no Autopilot, no supercharger stations. Who wants that?

The efficiency is so bad in the Taycan it' laughable. With similar battery sizes, the Model S gets 100 miles more range. Porsche is many years behind Tesla in understanding electric drivetrain efficiency.

For the fast version (Turbo S), the Taycan is $80k more expensive than the Model S Performance.

I suppose the Taycan has nicer materials inside.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#193

Post by _ph_ »

Just looking at the current revenue, the valuation of Tesla seems increadible high. But there are quite a few reasons for the optimism connected to Tesla.

Tesla by a fair margin owns the market for electric cars. So anyone who thinks that electric cars are the future, should expect Tesla to do quite well. All big car companies are trying to keep up with Tesla in electric car tech and additionally, if the transition comes, are burdened with a lot of production facilities for ICE cars.

Tesla is also much more than just cars, they have their own charging infrastructure, battery manufacturing, might play a big role in cell manufacturing going forward and are getting important in the energy sector, which might overtake the car business one day.

Also, Tesla is growing exponentially. This gives a lot of growth fantasy, that they might get to the size of Amazon one day, which would mean a multiple of stock value compared today.

But most importantly, and that is the reason they have such a strong support amongst their current and potential customers: they keep innovating. A bit like Apple of the old, if they announce a new product, prepare to see something really new. While traditional car manufacturers keep iterating on their products, Tesla has completely new things, just think of the Cybertruck. Which other car annoucement got that much press coverage as the Cybertruck? Also, the Semi could get huge.

There are also some very technical factors driving the recent raise of the stock: there have been quite a few good, if not great news (Q4 sales numbers, Gigafactory 3 operating within 1 year of the building start, Gigafactory 4 planned). Then there is still a huge amount of stock shorted, so while it not might be a full short squeeze, the shorts need to cover the stocks they shorted. Finally, Tesla might join the S&P 500, which means, that a lot of institutions have to buy Tesla stock, which will drive it up further, at least short-time.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#195

Post by NickM »

Spivak wrote: post #121
xedeon wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has consistently said the Supercharger Network is open for any manufacturer to adapt. " "Tesla is aware of these problems. CEO Elon Musk first floated the idea of sharing its Supercharger network in 2015, but with only a few hundred Superchargers operating at the time, the proposals did not gain any momentum." "Tesla’s chief technology officer JB Straubel has strongly suggested that plans are now underway. He s…

I feel like you're painting the second option as bad when it's exactly the same flow as buying gas. Nothing about paying for electricity needs an account and more than buying gas does. I agree that Tesla's system is pretty slick but the alternative isn't bad.

In theory yeah it shouldn't be that bad. In practice there are many different third-party charge providers, and they all have their own RFID cards you have to order in advance after setting up accounts and adding payment methods and whatnot. Or if you don't have the special RFID card that matches the station you want to charge at, you might be able to download an app and set up an account on your phone, but a lot of charging station apps are buggy and hard to use. Many of these third-party charging stations are also unreliable, or only have one or two plugs which may be occupied when you show up. In practice the whole third-party charging ecosystem is just a mess and the Supercharger network has none of these problems.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#196

Post by trhway »

mediaman wrote: post #163
trhway wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla ARR (edit as it seems to get some people confused: "Annualized Run Rate") is something like $25B/year. That for tech company easily makes for $250B+ valuation. (and yes i do own some) >than Volkswagen those dinosaurs are still not getting it. They continue to stay car companies instead of becoming tech companies. Paradigm shift must be very well familiar to tech people here at HN.

ARR is not a synonym for "revenue." Tesla's total revenue was $6.3bn for the last reported quarter, an annual run rate of $25.2bn. That's all sales, nearly all of which are sales of new vehicles. Sales of durable new vehicles does not fit the definition of "annual recurring revenue" by any stretch of the imagination. ARR is valued highly because it implies steady revenue from each customer. Less the churn rate, it ma…

"annualized run rate" is useful for growing companies and has nothing to do with "recurring". Why would you use "recurring" in the context of Tesla?!

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#198

Post by xedeon »

ksec wrote: post #180
donogh wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. They are getting stellar customer satisfaction ratings, which is translating into brand loyalty[1]. They've built an ecosystem between their above-average EV hardware, industry-leading software (with frequent improvements), and a top-notch charging network. I can see some automakers matching them on hardware, but they have a huge lead in software. Traditional car manufacturers…

>Tesla is the Apple of the auto industry. As far as I am aware, none of the Tesla, even in perfect form, are as well built as any of the state of the art luxury cars. Compared to Apple, despite all its criticism and flaws, still has some of the best built Smartphones, Laptops, Desktops and Tablet in the industry. Not entirely sure about Software, If it is internal uses, I would argue the biggest competitor to the Sof…

> As far as I am aware, none of the Tesla, even in perfect form, are as well built as any of the state of the art luxury cars.

Are you just regurgitating stuff you read/watched, or have you actually owned other "state of the art luxury cars." and a Model S or 3 for example. To do a fair and objective comparison?

Also, Tesla is more positioned and priced at the Premium segment. Sure a Model S is not as luxurious as a Mercedes S-Class for example. But it lags in driver assist and safety functions by a long shot.

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#199

Post by dmannorreys »

pretendscholar wrote: post #139
yalogin wrote: post #35

The biggest advantage they have is their supercharging network. Every manufacturer is focusing on ADAS and electric cars but no one is focusing on the network. That is their biggest advantage and the only reason to buy a Tesla, granted their cars are great but without the network it’s just an expensive commute car.

Something I've never understood is why you would want your auto manufacturer to own energy stations. Why wouldn't you just leave that up to the gas stations?

I have yet to see gas stations even attempt to establish the scale of charging infrastructure that Tesla is doing

Re: Tesla races past $100B in market valuation

#200

Post by gowld »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #52

If you're wondering what could possibly justify $100B, think in terms of "What if Tesla put all the other car companies out of business?" This isn't as unlikely as it seems: https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/1219288360096694273 Trucking revenue was $700B in 2017. There's a lot of room to grow.

Meanwhile, Toyota and Honda sell 10 as many cars to the vast majority of people who will never be able to afford Teslas, and the cars work long-term.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u-s-auto-sales-figures-by...

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf...

> When the Model 3 first came out in 2017, Consumer Reports gave it an average predicted reliability score based on the survey results at the time about the Model S... The car maintained its average score for predicted reliability in October 2018... The new survey data shows that the car has dropped from average to below-average reliability.

> The Tesla Model S lost CR’s recommendation in October 2018 largely because of suspension problems.

> The Model X SUV has always had below-average reliability through its lifespan,

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