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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#251

Post by yojo »

outer_web wrote: post #28
lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

I think less 4d chess and more Erlich Bachman school of negotiation. Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

When he started with a limited set of tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China it sort of made sense as a bullying move. The administration at least had the bandwidth to conduct three sets of negotiations.

But it’s essentially impossible to negotiate 180 deals simultaneously. No way does Tunisia get even five minutes to pitch a deal - the simultaneous imposition of tariffs effectively DDOS’d the negotiation team.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#252

Post by mathfailure »

kalkin wrote: post #214
mathfailure wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to correct you: wars don't happen when just one of the sides thinks they can win, they happen when BOTH sides think so. I think that exactly for this reason Europe needs such a vaccine shot, so they stop they can win a war against Russia.

But... they can? If Ukraine can fight Russia to a standstill, a fully mobilized Europe clearly at least has a shot. Unless it escalates to nuclear weapons and everyone loses... But you need at least an argument if you want to say that is less likely without any initial US involvement, it's not obvious.

Exactly. Europe thinks it may join Ukraine in a war against Russia to actually win that war.

My point is that this is quite a reason why a nuke war may occur.

And if U.S. turns back away from Europe - Europe might 'sober up' and not seek the prolongation of a conflict. Non-nuke wars end somehow. One side usually loses, without such a loss - there would be no end for the war and more and more people would die. A bitter ending is better than endless bitterness.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#254

Post by zip1234 »

JackYoustra wrote: post #175
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

...or they could've just laid off and gotten even more. maybe, just maybe, trump and the people around him are actually just crazy and there's no big conspiracy.

It's the simplest explanation and also the one with the most evidence

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#255

Post by LikeBeans »

jdlshore wrote: post #84
csense wrote: post #12

So honest question: A bunch of people who currently own stock are deciding they'd rather have cash instead -- that much is obvious. But what exactly are they doing with the cash? Don't want to hold onto it, everyone says devaluation and inflation is coming. Bitcoin and gold are kinda flat. I expected them to shoot up as uncertainty hedges. What gives?

Bonds and stocks tend to have an inverse correlation. And, yep, bonds are up while stocks and real estate are down. That’s why financial advisors tell you to keep a mix of stocks and bonds, trending towards a greater percentage of bonds depending on your risk tolerance and as you get older. (Because bonds have lower returns than stocks, historically, but are also less volatile.)

Often yes but sometimes they both go down. However bonds don't decline as fast. The actual strategy I follow is stock/bond/short-term. The short term is like a buffer currently invested in short term treasury fund. Think of it like a game. If stocks are low then sell bonds and when that is also low then use the short term investment to live on to wait out the market recovery. Also if you are retired like me you would tighten expenses when drawing from the short term during a downturn.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#256

Post by tdeck »

bdelmas wrote: post #119
OJFord wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hopefully for the US they won't go in a similar crisis like the UK is going through... Err.. do tell about the UK's larger crisis than US'?

Well before what's happening now the US still was doing very strong on the economy (plus their advantage to be that big, their military advantage, them owning half of their continent, etc...). But with what is unfolding now... If you want to know more about the current situation in the UK I would recommend this video [1]. His channel is amazing for geopolitical content. [1] https://youtu.be/OTWDzMjgsEY?si=hxoB8ef_y2Q…

It's interesting that this video is so focused on productivity since 2008, when a worker's income has been decoupled from productivity for decades.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#257

Post by tpetry »

victor106 wrote: post #167
nimos wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. A lot of that is very high margin tech SASS/advertising. If this continues it seems like this could be a "digg->reddit" type moment for US tech. In some ways it is easier for a lot of people to leave facebook than it is for a single person. If you look at gross…

>Almost all the trade deficit numbers being thrown around by the US administration don't include trade in services which the US generally has a large surplus. Then why don’t other countries tax US services? I don’t even hear this from anyone in the media too

The EU is currently thinking about doing exactly that.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#258

Post by bediger4000 »

nwatson wrote: post #89
outer_web wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think less 4d chess and more Erlich Bachman school of negotiation. Bullying people in inferior bargaining positions has somehow worked thus far.

When the bully gets too ambitious the large number of bullied gang together for revenge, or at least effective countermeasures. The world will route around USA, find they can manage ok without it. The USA will be iced out, lose its reserve currency status, nobody will buy its military technology, making the USA unable to recoup large outlays for ambitious military projects, and the USA will lose its military dominanc…

The USA may get the metric system out of this. The only reason the USA can hang on to its ridiculous "imperial" units has been its economically dominant position.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#259

Post by neogodless »

lwansbrough wrote: post #6

So where is the bottom? I don’t actually believe there is one, I’m just curious to hear what other people think.

I don't know the machinations at the level of Trump, the billionaires, and the GOP senators and representatives. Depending on what's going on, those in congress will never do their job.

OR, if they just believed in Trump's influence on votes in "free and fair elections", they might eventually hit a breaking point. Because if they let this happen unchecked, they will be voted out, 100%. (Not to mention everyone they know will have lost money, many more jobless, hungry, etc.)

Being complicit in triggering a great depression while being an elected official cannot be good for your career long-term.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#260

Post by onetimeusename »

sebmellen wrote: post #196
Majromax wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that a quotation is not necessarily an endorsement, but this is a fantastically short-sighted idea. > it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets How dare countries want pictures of dead Presidents so badly that... they're willing to send real goods to the United States for its consumption, with no expectation of reciprocation. > and the defense umbrella…

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

The problem is that the tariffs can be undone by the next president. I think that would discourage any investment in industry here. Even if this works, I feel like there is now a political commitment to undoing the tariffs.
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