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The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

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Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#251

Post by 127 »

_Microft wrote: post #240
oblio wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

If batteries do not make progress fast enough, synthetic fuels might be a temporary(?) solution. With these we can have the advantage of the high energy-density of hydrocarbon fuels for use cases like airplanes without having the climate effect of fossil fuels. Remember that the problem with fossil fuels is that they increase the amount of carbon in (short term) circulation which is what leads to further accumulation…

About biofuels... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpEB6hCpIGM

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#252

Post by zizee »

ben_w wrote: post #221
reissbaker wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Very few of the people that would currently benefit from a domestic backup battery could afford $2k California, a state of 40 million people, would disagree with you ;) Not just referencing the blackouts we had last summer: CA also is heavily invested in solar power, and as a result, power is much cheaper during the day than at night (assuming you opt into time of use pricing). A battery for $2k would pay for itsel…

> A battery for $2k would pay for itself in California quickly Anyone who can find a spare $2k can buy one and quickly find they now have more than $2k spare, but you’d be amazed how many people, even in a rich part of the world like CA, don’t have as much spare cash as the average developer. https://samvimesbootstheory.com/ Like I said, “not zero, but…”

This is such an unrealistically pessimistic assessment.

You just need to count the number of rooftop solar installations there are in the world to get an idea of the market size. Another $2k investment to get significantly more value out of an existing multithousand outlay would be a no brainer for most of them.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#253

Post by cm2187 »

oblio wrote: post #233
FabHK wrote: post #224

Nice that the cost has come down. Unfortunately, that which makes electric cars and planes feasible, namely energy density (Wh/litre) and specific energy (Wh/kg), has not improved that rapidly. The article mentions a factor of 3.4 over 30 years for energy density, ie 4% p.a., or doubling every 17 years. I think electric aircraft need another doubling or two in specific energy to become feasible, so another few decade…

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

Do factories require batteries?

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#254

Post by jokteur »

oblio wrote: post #233
FabHK wrote: post #224

Nice that the cost has come down. Unfortunately, that which makes electric cars and planes feasible, namely energy density (Wh/litre) and specific energy (Wh/kg), has not improved that rapidly. The article mentions a factor of 3.4 over 30 years for energy density, ie 4% p.a., or doubling every 17 years. I think electric aircraft need another doubling or two in specific energy to become feasible, so another few decade…

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

Trains can already be electrified without the need for batteries.

For the case of buses, I think there is an elegant solution that they have begun to use in my city. Historically, they already have been electric cables around the city for pantograph buses. However, it is expensive to run electric cables around the city, so they are only a handfull of lines using this technology.

Now they are introducing hybrid battery / pantographs buses. Which I think a good compromise because you only need to equip a fraction of the line with electric cables, and the battery takes care of the rest. Because of that, you don't need a huge battery for the bus to be able to run all day. It can recharge periodically on the line with the pantograph.

Concerning trucks and cars, yes that shit needs to be electrified ASAP.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#255

Post by mgoetzke »

arthurcolle wrote: post #21
lanstin wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am sure there is some sci fi novel where species compete for neutron stars because they are a very dense compute substrate.

Isn't Three Body Problem kinda like this?

Is that book worth reading ? I am half-way through and I still don't see the point ;)

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#256

Post by pdpi »

_Microft wrote: post #240
oblio wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

If batteries do not make progress fast enough, synthetic fuels might be a temporary(?) solution. With these we can have the advantage of the high energy-density of hydrocarbon fuels for use cases like airplanes without having the climate effect of fossil fuels. Remember that the problem with fossil fuels is that they increase the amount of carbon in (short term) circulation which is what leads to further accumulation…

> Producing synthetic fuels would remove carbon from the environment before releasing it on use again, leading to a net-zero effect.

Unfortunately, that assumes producing those synthetic fuels has no carbon output other than the fuel itself.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#257

Post by mgoetzke »

justinator wrote: post #169
reissbaker wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Very few of the people that would currently benefit from a domestic backup battery could afford $2k California, a state of 40 million people, would disagree with you ;) Not just referencing the blackouts we had last summer: CA also is heavily invested in solar power, and as a result, power is much cheaper during the day than at night (assuming you opt into time of use pricing). A battery for $2k would pay for itsel…

> California, a state of 40 million people, would disagree with you ;) How explode-y is this battery? I hear California also has this problem with forest fires and it seems a fire and giant batteries all over the place would be two flavors that do not go well with each other.

Home Storage is typically LFP (LiFePO4) nowadays. And those are hard to ignite.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#258

Post by oblio »

cm2187 wrote: post #253
oblio wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

Do factories require batteries?

I imagine factories can have customer arrangements with power suppliers (imagine an aluminum making factory), they could have their own batteries. Especially if the price for electricity varies, factories could charge their batteries when electricity is cheap, to save money.

To be honest, I don't know what they could use batteries for, but I also can't imagine that some aspects of factory work will be completely untouched by the upcoming battery revolution.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#259

Post by oblio »

amelius wrote: post #237
oblio wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

If every industry thinks like that ...

I can drive a car that's 20% heavier due to batteries. Nobody's going to fly a commercial plane that's 40% heavier due to batteries.

Some places, current batteries just don't cut it.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#260

Post by oblio »

harperlee wrote: post #238
oblio wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we fix everything except for aircraft, we will have done enough. At that point aircraft can keep using fossil fuels for a while longer. Cars, trucks, buses, trains, HVAC, factories are what needs to be electrified ASAP.

And boats!

Oh, forgot boats, right. Boats should definitely be on my list.
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