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The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

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Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#11
post #2

I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.

> unfortunately

Sounds good to me. Single-use, landfill bound products typically shouldn’t be as inexpensive to the consumer as we’re used to.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#12
post #6
post #3

This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?

> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest th…

I am sure there is some sci fi novel where species compete for neutron stars because they are a very dense compute substrate.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#13
post #9
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest th…

hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?

Did you read the whole comment? I edited it, but that part was in there from the beginning, just in different words.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#15
post #2

I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.

I used to get free batteries (size of my choice, I always chose the more expensive rectangular 9v ones) as an official member of the Radio Shack Battery of the Month Club.

Ah what memories. Tandy Radio Shack in Australia operated the same "Battery of the Month" club in the mid 1980s.

I always got the 9V too, which I used for my "150 in 1" electronics kit.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#16
post #4
post #2

I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.

you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long

GP meant price for alkaline batteries did not come down.

Another point to consider is if you leave the alkaline battery in for too long will the chemical leak and ruin your device? The damage to your device from a broken battery could easily exceed the cost differential. I don't have solid evidence that brand names work better in this regard but I have definitely experienced repeatedly generic batteries having white corrosive crystaline stuff formed all around them.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#17
post #13
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?

Did you read the whole comment? I edited it, but that part was in there from the beginning, just in different words.

I agree with you, I just think you weren't making your case strongly enough by implying that Moore's Law referred to more than just transistor count.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#18
post #9
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest th…

hasn't it always referred to transistor count and not performance?

It has always referred to the minimum of the cost-complexity curve for integrated circuits. The progress of Moore's Actual Law has never stopped.

The thing people mean when they are talking about the deceleration of single-threaded CPU performance is actually Dennard scaling. Dennard said that density and power efficiency were complementary in such a way as to keep areal power constant. That was true until it suddenly stopped being true. If Dennard scaling had continued you'd be using a 20GHz CPU right now.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#19
post #4
post #2

I don't think this applies to Duracell or Energizer alkaline batteries unfortunately :( Of course reading the article they are talking about Lithium Ion batteries.

you're paying for the brand, shelf position and other advertising cheap and reputable supermarket brand ones last just long

No question. Same thing you see in the generic pain relief aisle (ibuprofen, acetaminophen, et al), and many common grocery items.

10 pack of AA Rayovac batteries at Walmart: $3.20

Eight pack of AA Duracell: $7.47

Pretty ridiculous. For $7.78 you can get a 24 pack of ACDelco AA batteries (granted I don't know how that brand stands up on quality).

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#20
post #12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. Look again. Moore's law in terms of single threaded performance is dead. In literal terms of number of transistors on a wafer, it's still increasing exponentially, just slower. And in terms of what mattered when people cited Moore's law, the decrease in price/performance, it's still exponential, just slower and multi core. It will end, as all exponential trends must end lest th…

I am sure there is some sci fi novel where species compete for neutron stars because they are a very dense compute substrate.

Asimov's "The Last Question" is close, though the focus is on entropy rather than any kind of space wars.
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