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Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

251–260 of 544 posts

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#251
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.

No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong. But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point…

> But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie.

They most certainly do lie. I know people who work in a particular police department, and they have been exercising a policy of not testing people they find dead. Situations like somebody found dead at home in bed, perhaps some blood that looks like it’s been coughed onto a pillow. Whoever’s in charge of policy wants the numbers lower, so they don’t do a test, and the death is recorded as something non-Covid related. Conversely you have NY who recently decided to declare all cases of death where Covid could have been a plausible cause as Covid-19 deaths. Not only are death statistics reliant on methodology and testing policies, but they are equally as open to manipulation by political actors as the infection statistics are.

This isn’t unique to this situation either. These kinds of statistics are manipulated all the time in lots of different situations. For example you could never smoke a cigarette in your life, but if you manage to die of lung cancer, there’s a reasonably good chance you’ll be recorded in smoking statistics. Then you have things that are even more nebulous, like trying to figure out how many people died as a result of the Chernobyl accident. Lots of different people will try to answer that one for you, and the gap between the lower estimates and the higher estimates is enormous.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Well... there is some indication hospital staff are being directed to assume all cases are COVID19 until proven different. Patients that die with presumptive COVID19 are reported as COVID19 deaths. So agree, numbers don’t lie. But... handling emergencies effectively can lead to problematic numbers.

This is so tiresome. Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death. How often do you really think it happens that someone is hospitalized with COVID (otherwise, they'd not even be getting tested most places in the world) and dies of something else a week later? I'm sure it has happened a few times, but what has also been happenin…

It could be an information problem. Is the medical system even allow 2 causes of death. Underlying condition and ...

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.

> or Sweden Please note that the reporting on Sweden from outside Sweden is completely bananas. The idea of how Sweden is handling the pandemic, alongside cherry-picked data, is being used to argue for whatever lockdown theory people seem to have. The facts though are that Sweden is not an outlier in any way shape or form. Compared to other European countries, Sweden is boringly in the middle of the pack, and showing…

In some sense, you're right -- Swedes are doing lots of things differently these days, and the reporting I've seen is broadly terrible and used to support various contentions. I'm most interested in the numbers. Sweden has twice the population and ~20 times the fatalities of Finland, its next-door neighbor. I'll be watching carefully to see how things play out.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Well... there is some indication hospital staff are being directed to assume all cases are COVID19 until proven different. Patients that die with presumptive COVID19 are reported as COVID19 deaths. So agree, numbers don’t lie. But... handling emergencies effectively can lead to problematic numbers.

This is so tiresome. Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death. How often do you really think it happens that someone is hospitalized with COVID (otherwise, they'd not even be getting tested most places in the world) and dies of something else a week later? I'm sure it has happened a few times, but what has also been happenin…

> and the motivations for it are absolutely disgusting.

What are those?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so tiresome. Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death. How often do you really think it happens that someone is hospitalized with COVID (otherwise, they'd not even be getting tested most places in the world) and dies of something else a week later? I'm sure it has happened a few times, but what has also been happenin…

It could be an information problem. Is the medical system even allow 2 causes of death. Underlying condition and ...

Most death report forms have fields for a primary cause and contributing causes.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Well... there is some indication hospital staff are being directed to assume all cases are COVID19 until proven different. Patients that die with presumptive COVID19 are reported as COVID19 deaths. So agree, numbers don’t lie. But... handling emergencies effectively can lead to problematic numbers.

This is so tiresome. Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death. How often do you really think it happens that someone is hospitalized with COVID (otherwise, they'd not even be getting tested most places in the world) and dies of something else a week later? I'm sure it has happened a few times, but what has also been happenin…

> Someone has cancer for six months, gets COVID and dies 17 days later and now Tucker Carlson is here telling me not to count that death.

If someone has cancer and then gets a bad cold and dies, what should the cause of death be? Or what if they fell, etc.?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely plenty of reason for the infection rate to be different by demographic: we closed schools down . We don’t do that for the flu.

We also don't Shelter in place for flu. Bay Area school closure date is 1 day before SIP. Sweden and Iceland never closed schools for young kids. Data doesn't look any different.

Sweden has a substantially higher case fatality rate for COVID-19 compared to other industrialized nations, so it's an interesting case.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#259
post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

Not to mention. There's a giant filter called basic training which going to skew the numbers. you have a bunch of kids running around in the best shape of there lives and hey what do you know they handle the virus better than average.

Bingo.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#260
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bingo It seems like most everyone keep glossing over the fact that if you have a disease that doubles its infection count every x days, and it takes around x days to show symptoms you would always expect about 50% of infected to be asymptomatic at the time of testing

I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.

Let's be realistic though. Given the way that this virus promiscuously spreads, if a relatively large portion of individuals weren't generally asymptomatic, by now we would have approximately zero healthcare workers.
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