Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation • Hacker News Board

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#251

Post by petre » Sat, Oct 27, 2018, 6:06 PM UTC

zhte415 wrote: post #249

petre wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> hyperbolic VW statements about "delivering a car as good as any Tesla at half the cost" this morning. This while launching yet another compact SUV, based on the Polo platform w/o 4wd and the the base model using a three-cylinder one liter engne. Give me a break VW.

So, another Polo model then. Is it called an SUV, interested to see.

It's called T-Cross and it's probably intended as competition for the Citroen C3 Aircross. It's not a real SUV anyway, but more like the Seat Arona 2wd raised platform.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#252

Post by misterhtmlcss » Sat, Oct 27, 2018, 7:23 PM UTC

codeulike wrote: post #156

calabin wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Responsible cash management and investor relations are not mutually exclusive with innovation. There is absolutely no reason that TSLA shouldn't have raised cash with a relatively inexpensive bond issuance or moderate share issuance in the lead-up to the large expenditures required to begin Model 3 production. As a consequence of this, analysts rightly discounted TSLA's stock price to account for the tremendous amoun…

There is absolutely no reason that TSLA shouldn't have raised cash with a relatively inexpensive bond issuance or moderate share issuance in the lead-up to the large expenditures required to begin Model 3 production. Well, apart from the fact that TSLA already has $10b of Debt to pay back over the next few-to-ten years. I believe Tesla did borrow heavily to begin Model 3 production, but then production took longer th…

The best part about this moment right now is if TSLA immediately starts looking into restructuring their debt while interest rates haven't taken off and while everyone is excited again about TSLA's future. Seems to me this would be a savvy time to milk the market and roll over all their non-optimal debt.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#253

Post by ajross » Sat, Oct 27, 2018, 7:47 PM UTC

calabin wrote: post #193

ajross wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As a consequence of this, analysts rightly discounted TSLA's stock price TIL some of the wildest, most speculative short selling in history is "rightly discounting" a stock price. That's revisionist. I mean, yes, you're right that they could have operated more in line with traditional accounting. But that's not why their stock price was held incorrectly low.

There were plenty of reasonably thought-out cases to short Tesla, and there may still be. The company has had numerous recent instances where they've failed to pay vendors and their runway was shortening at a concerning pace. These are legitimate reasons to short a company's stock if you find them persuasive. I don't disagree that there was some wild speculation, sensationalistic articles, etc., but that doesn't make…

> Last, who's to say that the price was incorrectly low?

Uh... you. Because you're the one who introduced the "rightly discounting" nonsense that I was arguing with. Clearly you have an idea of what the stock price "should" be because otherwise there would be no "right" in your "rightly", right?

You just don't agree with the price the market has picked NOW, when you thought the price it had THEN was just fine. And you're reaching for stuff like "accounting norms" as justification, when the real truth is that, no, TSLA was artificially low due to short selling.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#254

Post by shakestheclown » Mon, Oct 29, 2018, 5:15 PM UTC

mlevental wrote: post #218

shakestheclown wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've switched to renting cars for large mile trips. Unlimited mileage rentals are so cheap it's worth it to avoid wear and tear even on my older car or my girlfriend's nicer vehicle--and removes the risk of my old car breaking down in an inconvenient place. Last rental was an SUV for $65/week that I put hundreds of miles on. Some of the rentals I have put 1k+ miles on for <$100.

how the heck did you get $65/week? is that without insurance coverage for the rental?

Yeah, no insurance. I use primary coverage through a premium credit card, which covers damage/theft, towing, and loss-of-use charges.

There was a status upgrade involved and an online coupon code.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#255

Post by jki275 » Tue, Oct 30, 2018, 12:13 PM UTC

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #211

jki275 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do my own maintenance in general. You pay extra for not getting stranded on the side of the road and with a 60+ mile commute I'm happy to pay it.

If you do your own maintenance then it makes even less sense to "pay for quality" because the cost of addressing issues yourself is minimal. It's very rare to have issues out of the blue anyway. I drive an early 90s shitbox and have an almost exactly 60mi commute. Obviously it would be a massive waste of time to try to keep it in tip top shape at all times but it's really not the stressful "am I going to break down t…

my time isn't valueless.

Buying quality means I spend less of it maintaining a vehicle.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#256

Post by thewhitetulip » Tue, Oct 30, 2018, 4:05 PM UTC

kreetx wrote: post #248

thewhitetulip wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are lucky and capable enough to pull this ou5 that's why it is a good time for them. If even one thing had gone wrong they'd be in big trouble.

I don't really agree with you. I think there were a million things to do, and in how many you can try something new and untested depends on how much buffer you have. Some of these new things come in batches, like the automation thing they tried with Model 3 that didn't work out and was reverted. And even this was probably a calculated risk.

Wasn't it my point? They took a big risk and they are lucky it worked out well for them!

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#257

Post by shakestheclown » Tue, Oct 30, 2018, 7:31 PM UTC

perl4ever wrote: post #244

shakestheclown wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are overestimating the time costs of an older, reliable car. I've got a 2003 Honda Civic 200k miles that I've had since it had 13k miles. I'd say it goes to the shop overnight once every 12-18 months for a major issue or something I don't want to deal with, goes to Valvoline for 15 minutes every 3 months or so, drop off at tire store for 2 hrs twice a year, and I maintain things like brakes, spark plugs,…

I can't get it out of my head that I read once that airbags were designed to last ten years. Driving a fifteen year old car seems like having an unexploded munition in my face. At what point is it likely to not work in an accident or to kill you when it does go off? I don't believe it's legal to replace an old steering wheel with a non-airbag one, so there really is no solution that I'm aware of. I have a 30 year old…

Looks like there were some concerns with mid-90s and earlier airbags only having a 15 year life, but modern bags are designed to last the life of the vehicle: https://www.edmunds.com/car-safety/do-car-airbags-expire.htm...

The good news about the Takata recall is that 50 million airbags out there either have already been replaced (including mine) or are able to be replaced under the recall.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#258

Post by perl4ever » Wed, Oct 31, 2018, 4:19 AM UTC

shakestheclown wrote: post #257

perl4ever wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't get it out of my head that I read once that airbags were designed to last ten years. Driving a fifteen year old car seems like having an unexploded munition in my face. At what point is it likely to not work in an accident or to kill you when it does go off? I don't believe it's legal to replace an old steering wheel with a non-airbag one, so there really is no solution that I'm aware of. I have a 30 year old…

Looks like there were some concerns with mid-90s and earlier airbags only having a 15 year life, but modern bags are designed to last the life of the vehicle: https://www.edmunds.com/car-safety/do-car-airbags-expire.htm... The good news about the Takata recall is that 50 million airbags out there either have already been replaced (including mine) or are able to be replaced under the recall.

The life of a typical vehicle is 15 years, so saying modern air bags are designed to last the life of a vehicle rather than 15 years doesn't make a falsifiable claim.

The Takata recalls indicate that what specific claims are made about airbag performance are not always accurate, and environmental circumstances and time factor into that.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#259

Post by shakestheclown » Thu, Nov 01, 2018, 3:10 PM UTC

perl4ever wrote: post #258

shakestheclown wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like there were some concerns with mid-90s and earlier airbags only having a 15 year life, but modern bags are designed to last the life of the vehicle: https://www.edmunds.com/car-safety/do-car-airbags-expire.htm... The good news about the Takata recall is that 50 million airbags out there either have already been replaced (including mine) or are able to be replaced under the recall.

The life of a typical vehicle is 15 years, so saying modern air bags are designed to last the life of a vehicle rather than 15 years doesn't make a falsifiable claim. The Takata recalls indicate that what specific claims are made about airbag performance are not always accurate, and environmental circumstances and time factor into that.

I don't believe cars are designed for a 15 year span, despite the average lifespan. A number of those are going to reach an early demise due to accidents and improper maintenance. Many of the parts are designed to last 50+ years.

Takata detonated 27,000 airbags and the highest failure rate vehicles had a failure rate of 2.16%. Those were at that time 12-14 year old vehicles with a faulty airbag detonator and still only 2% failure.

Either way, having no airbag in your car is demonstrably less safe than even a faulty, old Takata airbag.

My main point about the Takata recall though was that there are now 50 million used cars out there that have a new airbag system. So you can find a used car covered by the recall and check to see if the airbag has been replaced and if not then get it replaced for free, and then you have the best of both worlds: new airbag and relatively cheap, used car.