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Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

arstechnica.com

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Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#191

Post by esotericn »

ianai wrote: post #185
esotericn wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose it's hard for me to conceptualise because here in the UK, anywhere with restricted parking also has public transport. Here, generally restricted parking exists within 10-15 minutes walk of a train station (to stop people blocking up residential streets when they commute in to town). So if there's restricted parking, you can get by with one car (or no cars), for the most part.

My experience has been more and more highly dense real estate is built with exactly the number of parking spaces as needed and no more. Developers extract the most revenue that way - to the detriment of people who actually wind up living there. That was my experience in LV anyway. It looked to be the case in SV as well.

Is on-street parking generally restricted in suburbs in the US or something?

It's confusing me that you refer to 'parking spaces', that's what I mean by restricted parking - generally anywhere outside of public transport range in the UK is free-for-all - you park at the side of the road. There are no 'spaces', aside from the physical restriction of the length of the road.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#192

Post by jki275 »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #64
wbrasky wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am equally baffled by people's love of throwing money at cars. When I needed a "new" car two years ago, I asked my mechanic what sort of car they would want from a reliability/value standpoint. I was told Subarus or Toyotas not later than about 2007 were very nice. I spent 3 months watching used listings and wound up with a very low mileage 2006 Rav4 (for ~$10k) and it has been wonderful.

>I spent 3 months watching used listings and wound up with a very low mileage 2006 Rav4 (for ~$10k) and it has been wonderful. People think used Toyotas are made of gold. You could almost have a different Tahoe (in equivalent condition) for each day of the week at that price point.

Toyotas are the lowest maintenance used car you can buy. I've owned many and now only buy Toyota. When I can buy a 9 year old luxury model for less than 10k and drive it for another 200k+ miles putting minimal maintenance into it, that's saving me a ton of money and gives me a comfortable car to drive for my three hours a day commuting.

Tahoes? Yeah. You're going to put a significant amount of maintenance into an over 100k Tahoe. They're nice vehicles but the maintenance costs are more than I want to pay.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#193

Post by calabin »

ajross wrote: post #155
calabin wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Responsible cash management and investor relations are not mutually exclusive with innovation. There is absolutely no reason that TSLA shouldn't have raised cash with a relatively inexpensive bond issuance or moderate share issuance in the lead-up to the large expenditures required to begin Model 3 production. As a consequence of this, analysts rightly discounted TSLA's stock price to account for the tremendous amoun…

> As a consequence of this, analysts rightly discounted TSLA's stock price TIL some of the wildest, most speculative short selling in history is "rightly discounting" a stock price. That's revisionist. I mean, yes, you're right that they could have operated more in line with traditional accounting. But that's not why their stock price was held incorrectly low.

There were plenty of reasonably thought-out cases to short Tesla, and there may still be. The company has had numerous recent instances where they've failed to pay vendors and their runway was shortening at a concerning pace. These are legitimate reasons to short a company's stock if you find them persuasive.

I don't disagree that there was some wild speculation, sensationalistic articles, etc., but that doesn't make all short sellers wrong for believing that the price is inflated.

Last, who's to say that the price was incorrectly low? Was it incorrectly high before? Is today's price the right price? I do not believe that there was some conspiracy to artificially depress the price of the stock if that is what you mean.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#195

Post by dsfyu404ed »

jki275 wrote: post #192
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I spent 3 months watching used listings and wound up with a very low mileage 2006 Rav4 (for ~$10k) and it has been wonderful. People think used Toyotas are made of gold. You could almost have a different Tahoe (in equivalent condition) for each day of the week at that price point.

Toyotas are the lowest maintenance used car you can buy. I've owned many and now only buy Toyota. When I can buy a 9 year old luxury model for less than 10k and drive it for another 200k+ miles putting minimal maintenance into it, that's saving me a ton of money and gives me a comfortable car to drive for my three hours a day commuting. Tahoes? Yeah. You're going to put a significant amount of maintenance into an ove…

The price difference between a Tahoe and 4Runner or Ranger and Tacoma could probably put a new drive-train in the latter. Buying a Toyota (truck/suv, the used prices for the cars are reasonable) is still paying for maintenance, you're just paying up front instead of over time.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#196

Post by jandrese »

IMHO the flood of negative Tesla stories over the past few months has been an incredibly successful stock manipulation scheme. These people just got a huge payday when the Tesla earnings report dropped. It's up something like 75 points. Bloomburg is news for suckers.

Another factor is how quarterly earnings reports mean the investment media can't look past the end of their own nose. Obviously a company that is making a massive infrastructure investment to fill thousands of orders already on the books is going to have a cash shortfall in the short term, but it's a temporary problem and the long term prospects are quite rosy.

I mean these are the same people who every single day try to explain 1% upticks/downticks in stocks where the change is clearly below the noise floor. It's not being made for smart people.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#197

Post by sangnoir »

cheeko1234 wrote: post #83
paulddraper wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please link to this good, reliable, well-maintained car for $3k or under, because (without a family/buddy deal) it does not exist.

As bfuller already said, they do exist. I got my 2005 Honda Accord (Manual) on craigslist (2 days of research) for $2900. It has lasted me 5.5 years now with no maintenance except oil changes.

I've noticed manual transmission cars are usually discounted relative to autos.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#198

Post by apo »

didndkdk wrote: post #182
leesec wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? Tesla was founded in 2003, and did in fact have to stomach the major economic downturn in 2008. Was not a great time to be a car company, especially a small start up.

2008 occurred when TSLA was insignificantly small. Most had never even heard of it, and they started selling the roadster in 2008 - by 2012 they sold 2200 cars. Point being they were small enough that a couple of investors, or Musk by himself, can support the company through the storm. If the financial crisis would hit today, Musk couldn’t keep it afloat by himself for long and would have to raise serious amounts of…

Exactly.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#199

Post by shakestheclown »

derekp7 wrote: post #134
ryandrake wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who prefers cheap cars, one of the keys is basic maintenance know-how. Anyone can learn to do the basics (oil changes, air filter, spark plugs, brake pads, etc.) with a few hours of learning on YouTube. I'd never waste my money on a new car. My current car is 10 years old and it feels so uncomfortable new. I felt like I was spoiling myself when I bought it.

That basic maintenance worked for my Dad, he got home from work at 3:00 pm and also had whole weekends for car/house/lawn/garage/hobbies. I work further from home, with a higher paying job, and get home typically around 6:30 pm. Weekends are spent cramming in other household maintenance, recreational activities for the family, etc. So if having that new car (and spending $80 at the dealer every 3 - 4 months for basic…

I think you are overestimating the time costs of an older, reliable car. I've got a 2003 Honda Civic 200k miles that I've had since it had 13k miles. I'd say it goes to the shop overnight once every 12-18 months for a major issue or something I don't want to deal with, goes to Valvoline for 15 minutes every 3 months or so, drop off at tire store for 2 hrs twice a year, and I maintain things like brakes, spark plugs, radiator fan probably twice a year total 2 hours at a time.

And for tools, you don't need much more than the very basics for most jobs that I would want to deal with.

Now if your car of choice is a 69 chevelle or a Fiero then it's going to be a different story.

Re: Why almost everyone was wrong about Tesla’s cash flow situation

#200

Post by nemild »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #178

Because a lot of hedge funds make their money on volatility, not growth. They take advantage of the media's need to sell Fables rather than Facts, and jeopardy is an effective plot device.

In that vein, I'm looking for contributors to my financial media literacy guide:

https://github.com/nemild/hack-the-media/blob/master/financi...

It's a new version of my broader software eng media literacy guide:

https://github.com/nemild/hack-the-media/blob/master/softwar...

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