Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

241–250 of 476 posts

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#241

Post by madars »

acdha wrote: post #220
radlad wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I recall, Amazon also famously didn't turn a profit for ages - but they were also capable of turning one much earlier than they did. Are AI companies capable of turning a profit today if they turn some knobs?

Yes - IIRC, Amazon was profitable on books by 1996, with other sectors following as they expanded and it was clear that they could post profits any time they wanted by slowing expansion. It was surreal through the bubble years to see “analysts” equating them with companies which were losing money on every sale with no clear way to change that.

Exactly right. Even though ride sharing industry lost money in subsidy arms race and side bets it was likewise fundamentally sound in major metros since early on. Popular "analyses" kept equating Uber/Lyft with firms losing money on every sale with no path to fix it but the demand was always there as riders had already left taxis and transit on reliability and convenience grounds.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#242

Post by [deleted] »

chronic29521 wrote: post #141
PUSH_AX wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Passive investing” is not the same as “buying anything at any price”. Index funds follow transparent rules and weights. If the company is overvalued, that overvaluation is set by the wider market, not just passive investors.

> If the company is overvalued, that overvaluation is set by the wider market, not just passive investors. You probably also believe the markets are fully efficient and there is no insider trading ever. Historically, it takes 6-12 months for the wider public market to determine the correct valuation. That's why SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI are rushing to 15 days. They know something bad will happen between 15 days and 6…

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#243

Post by rchaud »

whatshisface wrote: post #143
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

It is not going to take 15 days for short selling hedge funds to right-price these IPOs. It is going to take something closer to a few seconds.

Hedge funds won't try to short the stock; the holders are almost all institutional investors and insiders who are long on the stock and have no reason to lend them to HFs betting on a price decline.

What they might do is trade bespoke instruments like a credit default swap on datacenter construction deals. Stays underneath the radar of politicians and tech insiders who are invested in a particular outcome.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#244

Post by piker »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

> astounding ... margins

Citation needed for that one.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#245

Post by [deleted] »

barbazoo wrote: post #86
sschueller wrote: post #45

Where will it be listed? I am considering selling all my index ETFs in those markets until the this blows over.

I've heard of the changes to the NASDAQ rules and I somewhat get how they make it so these stocks are included in index funds earlier than before. As far as I know, NYSE and others haven't done the same change so index funds there are "safe", i.e. will include the stocks only after a longer period, implying that it will have settled in value by then. Is that true at all? I'm sure the situation is much more complicate…

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#246

Post by selectodude »

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #184
jknoepfler wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While unlikely to happen at scale, by way of anecdata I'll say that I and my extended family have almost all shifted money away from funds that are heavily coupled to the fate of GenAI. The bottom is going to fall out of the market and it's going to take years to recover, I don't see any reason to suffer through that (and neither do my retirement-age relatives). I'm after steady gains in an approximately efficient ma…

What’s your portfolio? I don’t particularly have a wealth of investment options in my employer-provided 401k (ADP Workforce Now)

Not OP but I’m in a broad-based Euro index so I gain on the stocks and on the fact that the dollar is going to shit. I haven’t seen the enormous AI-juiced gains that have become commonplace but I’m also insulated from commodity hardware companies trading like rocket ship startups and whatever ends up coming out of that insanity.

Somebody is going to have to explain the business case for Micron trading like it’s Google. We all know that fabs are a low-margin capital intensive business, right?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#247

Post by tonfa »

alemanek wrote: post #175
chasd00 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't that what "total market" means? I don't see how if you invest in a total market fund you could declare "except for SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI". Why is it so bad for these accounts to be invested in these companies anyway? Seems pretty typical, i bet all kinds of companies are added to total market indexes each year.

Until recently companies that IPOed weren’t immediately added to the major indexes so there was a longer period for price discovery. This year that changed; so you have retirement funds that typically are more conservative acting as exit liquidity for these massive IPOs. I would have less of an issue if the inclusion in major indexes was delayed 6-12months but we are looking at inclusion within like 5 days for some o…

The float will get bigger as you wait tho, since it's common for early investors to be locked for e.g. 6 months. You can argue it's better to smooth the entry as float gets unlocked rather than being front run by all the hedge funds in a single day on a massive capitalization.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#248

Post by dnautics »

alemanek wrote: post #176
dnautics wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sure but it would be really weird if there wasn't one

Look at SpaceXs filing. There is one but it is super short. I was just pointing out that 365day lockup is likely incorrect and OP doesn’t really know that until the filing is approved and becomes public.

i mean spacex filing reads more like an investor prospectus than an s-1 so, its a few standard deviations off the norm

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#250

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lmeyerov wrote: post #206
giarc wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?

4-8 quarters for most tech IPOs to settle. IPOs are manufactured for the good times around young co's, so not surprising, and economic stability isn't a question of days/weeks/months. And yes often a falling knife This is pretty predictably wall street & federal regulators scamming normal people, retirement funds, etc, taking their fees and exit window at everyone else's expense

> 4-8 quarters for most tech IPOs to settle

Where are you getting this timeline from?

Post reply on HN