231–240 of 260 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder how much the end Moore's law is a part of this current slowdown. It would make sense to me that its impact would lag a while, and would eventually catch up.
I don't know if it's moores law. except for servers, CPUs are mostly running near idle. My intuition would say tech saturation would make more of a difference. That is, worldwide pretty much everyone have now has adopted a computer and all businesses have automated the low hanging fruit.
At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
I don't doubt that high interest rates will cause unemployment to rise, but saying "layoffs are happening" is a little disingenuous. We are still in the midst of one of the strongest labor markets in US history.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is buy and hold a "pessimal strategy"?
IDK what OP believes, but to me, the "Boglehead" strategy is great, with giant caveats. Most devotees I talk to get visibly frustrated when I suggest that you can look at larger macroeconomic forces, like COVID, supply chain issues, Fed manipulations(both positive and negative) and make educated predictions on the direction of stocks. My guess is that these are folks who just don't want the frustration of learning ab…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is why the dollar cost averaging technique works so well. No, it's not likely to provide you a financial windfall, but it's also not likely to yield you financial devastation either. If you're investing for retirement then it generates quite a bit of wealth in the long term.
Yeah, but if you have a lump sum of money it's still better to invest everything at once if you plan to hold it for decades. Vanguard has a good paper on that titled "Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later". And as you get close to retirement, you need to be mindful about sequence of returns risk.
There is historical data showing that in 2/3 cases, lump sum is better. That says exactly nothing about which will be better today or tomorrow. The future is unknown.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is why the dollar cost averaging technique works so well. No, it's not likely to provide you a financial windfall, but it's also not likely to yield you financial devastation either. If you're investing for retirement then it generates quite a bit of wealth in the long term.
I wonder how well dollar cost averaging is going to work in an era of rising interest rates.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't doubt that high interest rates will cause unemployment to rise, but saying "layoffs are happening" is a little disingenuous. We are still in the midst of one of the strongest labor markets in US history.
Employment is Lagging indicator. Almost always peaks right before a downturn
Can the Fed destroy demand/cool growth via the benchmark rate faster than workers leave the labor force (strengthening the labor market for those who remain)? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Earlier quoted context omitted.
IDK what OP believes, but to me, the "Boglehead" strategy is great, with giant caveats. Most devotees I talk to get visibly frustrated when I suggest that you can look at larger macroeconomic forces, like COVID, supply chain issues, Fed manipulations(both positive and negative) and make educated predictions on the direction of stocks. My guess is that these are folks who just don't want the frustration of learning ab…
Obviously you can look at those factors and predict market movements based on them, the question is can you do that BETTER than everyone else in the market, including institutional investors?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
IDK what OP believes, but to me, the "Boglehead" strategy is great, with giant caveats. Most devotees I talk to get visibly frustrated when I suggest that you can look at larger macroeconomic forces, like COVID, supply chain issues, Fed manipulations(both positive and negative) and make educated predictions on the direction of stocks. My guess is that these are folks who just don't want the frustration of learning ab…
The problem with timing the market is you have to be right twice - you have to choose when to sell and when to buy back in. On the other hand, DCA'ing you way through a market decline and recovery will always leave you in a better position than one where the crash never happened.
And times like this when macro forces dominate it's not hard to predict. If you're talking about timing entry/exit over the past decade, sure, but now is not then, and it's bogleheads refusal to see that which is most frustrating.
But I'll say again, you don't need to nail it. Don't try to time the exact top and bottom, but don't pretend you can't get close.