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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

fortune.com

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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#101

Post by taylodl »

coldcode wrote: post #81
mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

This is why the dollar cost averaging technique works so well. No, it's not likely to provide you a financial windfall, but it's also not likely to yield you financial devastation either. If you're investing for retirement then it generates quite a bit of wealth in the long term.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#102

Post by babyshake »

coldcode wrote: post #81
mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

> Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice.

Survivorship bias, survival bias or immortal time bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#103

Post by datavirtue »

jhickok wrote: post #63
throwoutway wrote: post #24

At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.

I don't doubt that high interest rates will cause unemployment to rise, but saying "layoffs are happening" is a little disingenuous. We are still in the midst of one of the strongest labor markets in US history.

Fact: economy is growing

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#104

Post by mostly_harmless »

foobarian wrote: post #93
peteradio wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation adjusted won't that look rather flat or negative? Where are these real returns going to be coming from? Hot stocks haven't been paying appropriate dividends for the last two decades.

I wonder how much the end Moore's law is a part of this current slowdown. It would make sense to me that its impact would lag a while, and would eventually catch up.

I don't know if it's moores law. except for servers, CPUs are mostly running near idle.

My intuition would say tech saturation would make more of a difference. That is, worldwide pretty much everyone have now has adopted a computer and all businesses have automated the low hanging fruit.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#105

Post by Kye »

giantg2 wrote: post #51
mikeodds wrote: post #10

Prime time to raise money to build a society based off Logan’s Run to deal with everyone that won’t be able to afford to retire in that scenario

Reviews at work already feel like the carousel. Might as well extend that to other parts of society.

Trend pieces are worried about the new wave of Quiet Running.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#106

Post by tppiotrowski »

Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#108

Post by foobarian »

mostly_harmless wrote: post #104
foobarian wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much the end Moore's law is a part of this current slowdown. It would make sense to me that its impact would lag a while, and would eventually catch up.

I don't know if it's moores law. except for servers, CPUs are mostly running near idle. My intuition would say tech saturation would make more of a difference. That is, worldwide pretty much everyone have now has adopted a computer and all businesses have automated the low hanging fruit.

You put in words what I was thinking. Thank you for your comment :-)

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#109

Post by ModernMech »

tppiotrowski wrote: post #106

Personally, I wish it was as rewarding building or creating something as it is to invest in the stock market over the past decade. If you have capital it makes more sense to put it into stocks than opening a coffee shop or computer repair shop, etc. If the stock market stops paying out maybe we'll go back to trying to create value instead of profiting from value created by others.

Depends on what you mean by "rewarding". I feel that building and creating is far more rewarding then clicking a button and watching a number go up. I hope others feel the same, because when everyone is clicking buttons and watching numbers, that's not something society can sustain.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#110

Post by Arubis »

weego wrote: post #16
Arubis wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s almost as if anyone with the actual ability to predict a market movement has a disincentive to talk about it in public.

You're flying dangerously close to buying into the idea that anyone working in markets actually has any meaningful ability to predict, and isn't just semi-gambling in a semi-rigged environment.

I don't especially mind brushing up against that idea so long as my feet are firmly planted in "...and _that person is not me_" firmament.
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