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Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

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Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#221

Post by philwelch »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #220
philwelch wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are advocating indiscriminate and collective hatred towards entire nationalities. That hatred is the root cause of genocide. And if that is truly your attitude, you don’t even have a consistent moral basis to claim that genocide is categorically wrong. By your logic, an entire nationality of people are collectively responsible for whatever their regime and military do. Since a hostile military can be justifiably…

I simply said that we can talk about Russians' hurt feelings when Ukrainians aren't being killed by Russians. Quote where I said Russians should be killed? No one's killing Russian civilians. I never said anyone should. Russian media and leaders have said Ukraine should be wiped off the map. Mariupol is no longer a city. Tens of thousands of civilians murdered. Women raped. But people are being mean to Russians? You'…

This is the statement of mine that you find so objectionable:

> I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.

And for further context, what is the stance that I think "a silent of majority of reasonable people" might think?

> The whole world does not hate Russians. On the contrary, I've seen a lot of empathy for Russians abroad and in Russia who do not support the invasion of and atrocities in the Ukraine but still have to suffer because of the Russian government's, or rather Vladimir Putin's, actions. Obviously, yes, Russians who express support for Putin are hated, rightfully so.

I have already condemned the actions of the Russian regime. That is not enough for you; you are not satisfied unless I hate the Russian people without distinction.

I have done nothing in this thread except to draw the moral distinction between the Russian regime and military and the Russian people as a whole, and to reiterate that it is morally unacceptable to hate, without any distinction, an entire nationality of people. You are the one who took up the mantle of defending bigotry; don't you dare claim the moral high ground.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#222

Post by native_samples »

jupp0r wrote: post #211
native_samples wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Eventually Russian factories will run out of machine spare parts and everything will grind to a halt Probably not. The Russian economy is unusually self-reliant, a legacy of Soviet times. It's pretty common to discover that for some niche weird thing there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world and one of them is Russian. For example: one reason it's hard to build nuclear reactors is that the containment…

> The Russian economy is unusually self-reliant Not anymore from what experts are writing, but only time will tell. Aircraft industry is a good example [1], as most planes operated in Russia require western maintenance parts that can’t easily be replaced. Other examples are in gas and oil drilling equipment [2]. > The Economist was pretty consistently writing deranged propaganda about Russia even 5 years ago You call…

5 years ago? It was all about how Putin was secretly manipulating western elections via social media and leaders via secret blackmail material. All that stuff was nonsense from day one.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#223

Post by native_samples »

emteycz wrote: post #193
native_samples wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the argument here is not that they'll have to make do with lower quality parts. It's that they won't be able to get or make the parts they need at all . That is a very different and much less likely argument, especially as there are still many countries they're trading with through which imports can be routed.

No, today it's the same. They're thousands of miles away from today's precision manufacturing. They won't be able to make usable parts. If they try to use whatever they produce, their machines will likely explode, or at least grind to halt.

So then they'll buy more parts from their friends in Germany? After all, they have to sell the Russians something in return for all that gas.

I think you are seriously over-estimating what sanctions can do. Even if some Russian machines do explode, much harsher sanctions have routinely failed elsewhere. It'd be nice if this is all it took to end the war but it seems unrealistic to assume so.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#224

Post by nicbou »

bfz wrote: post #6

Interest rate increases, selling reserves, RUB sales bans, demanding customers pay for energy in RUB, demanding local businesses sell non-RUB reserves, banning foreign sales of Russian assets The rate may look similar, but it is against a backdrop of a significantly different and far worse economic environment, not least the use of reserves to prop the currency will have depleted their reserves.

This is exactly the same playbook that the ministry of finance followed when Nazi Germany went the autocratic route. They also confiscated personal stores of foreign currency, and eventually pulled the sort of financial wizardry that I'm unqualified to explain.

Adam Tooze's Wages of Destruction is an incredible book if you're into economics.

If I learned one thing from this book, it's that central banks have a lot of tricks up their sleeves if the situation demands it.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#225

Post by _shadi »

simonblack wrote: post #210
EdwardDiego wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'll be interesting when they start buying Chinese knock-off parts for machines. It didn't seem to work out so well for Russia's IFV tyres... > One aspect that wasn't covered was that a lot of Russian vehicles are fitted with cheap Chinese copies of off-road tyres which may be a significant contributor to the problems Russia is having and exacerbating the poor maintenance Trent talks about. https://www.tanknology.co…

We've gone through the 'cheap Asian knockoff' cycles many times before. I can remember when it was Japanese stuff that was supposedly 'cheap and shoddy' but we all went out later and bought Mazda and Toyota cars and Canon cameras. Then it was the Taiwanese stuff and today the whole world can't do without Taiwanese computer chips. Then it was the Chinese stuff, and the same cycle. But the scene is changing. In the sam…

The original cycle started with Germany:

"Where does the rubbish in every country come from? Germany!"

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/brands-geographical...

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#226

Post by emteycz »

native_samples wrote: post #223
emteycz wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, today it's the same. They're thousands of miles away from today's precision manufacturing. They won't be able to make usable parts. If they try to use whatever they produce, their machines will likely explode, or at least grind to halt.

So then they'll buy more parts from their friends in Germany? After all, they have to sell the Russians something in return for all that gas. I think you are seriously over-estimating what sanctions can do. Even if some Russian machines do explode, much harsher sanctions have routinely failed elsewhere. It'd be nice if this is all it took to end the war but it seems unrealistic to assume so.

Where is that elsewhere? I visited some sanctioned places and it was as I said here - yeah they make some stuff, and all of it is shit, doesn't work at all, or breaks down very soon. There's a reason why there's a car repair shop at every corner in Iran.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#227

Post by Markoff »

kaba0 wrote: post #102
Markoff wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yup, international community = less than 1/4 of countries on this planet judging by Western MSM you see here in Europe you would think everyone in world sanctioned evil Russia while opposite is true

Maybe look at the relative size of the countries’ respective economies. Whether French Guiana sanctions Russia doesn’t matter nearly as much as e.g. the European Union doing so.

Do you have also conversion chart for human life cost based on GDP? Since clearly small minority of world population and their politicial representation is more important to you than actual number of people/countries who don't care about sanctions against Russia.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#228

Post by hypertele-Xii »

philwelch wrote: post #213
hypertele-Xii wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less than a hundred years ago russians marched into my country and tried to murder every man and rape every woman. Now they're marching into Ukraine and doing the same. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about, you just want to "feel good" about how woke you percieve yourself to be, all the while living comfortably very far from a russian border, I'd wager. All this seems just overblown bigotry to you.

And what would you suggest we do? Murder every Russian man and rape every Russian woman as collective retribution? Besides, how many Ukrainians were in the Red Army that invaded Finland in 1939? And what was the nationality of the man who ordered that invasion? By your logic, Russians, Ukrainians, and Georgians are all your enemies, so why take a side when they are fighting between themselves? My moral stance here is…

> And what would you suggest we do?

Stop calling justified hate "bigotry". That's all. That's what I was accused of.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#229

Post by hypertele-Xii »

inkyoto wrote: post #203
hypertele-Xii wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what ethnics has to do with it. If it waves the flag it's of the nation. Russia is a nation of russian people. A nation with a history of illegal invasion of its peaceful neighbors, including mine.

> A nation with a history of illegal invasion of its peaceful neighbors, including mine . Historical facts prove you otherwise. Historically, Russia has been far more often on the receiving end of illegal invasions (I have not even attempted to count the number of innumerable skirmishes) from "peaceful" neighbours – a major invasion every 47.2 years on average between 1237 and 1945, which is something I have pointed…

You haven't proven otherwise. You've simply pointed out a different fact. Russia being frequently on the receieving end doesn't somehow annul the fact that it has a history of dishing out its own invasions.

That's like saying the Sun doesn't set, because I can prove to you it rises. It's capable of both.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#230

Post by pibechorro »

simonblack wrote: post #165
jupp0r wrote: post #31

Supply and demand. 1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up. 2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up. This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run…

Eventually Russian factories will run out of machine spare parts Most parts are able to be manufactured anywhere. Certainly, it is cheaper (generally) to buy the parts from the usual manufacturers. But supply and demand will cause those parts to start to be made, whether in Russia itself, or in China (more likely). If those parts start to get made more cheaply in China than the original 'western' parts, the western p…

Ill add that sanctions always hurt the poor the most. They are not a smart way to bully diplomacy.
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