Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on? • Hacker News Board

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#201

Post by russiano » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 3:27 PM UTC

radu_floricica wrote: post #185

russiano wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. How do you reconcile the two thoughts that, at the same time, it's a mafia regime and that people somehow elected them and therefore are responsible? 2. Do you also hold Germans responsible for funding the war? They pay for gas a lot and their contribution is indispensable >I'm very curious about that... would you mind sharing? Not sure I am able to direct you to one comprehensive place, but in short, this is a wa…

(no idea why your reply below is dead. didn't flag it or downvote it, for what it's worth, and I don't find it flag-worthy anyways. we did fight with the germans in ww2 for reasons I'm not getting into right now, and it would be overly hypocritical of me to no accept that when I'm talking about responsibility)

Not sure how HN works, my comments seem to be dead by default and then resurrected after a while (manually?)

Anyway, thanks for a civil discussion. I am against this war, just wanted to share how I feel about this situation and the fact that Russia barely lasted 30 years without another historical shift

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#202

Post by inkyoto » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 3:51 PM UTC

EdwardDiego wrote: post #192

inkyoto wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Less than a hundred years ago russians marched into my country and tried to murder every man and rape every woman . You had better back such a sweeping statement up with hard facts and numbers as its emotional quotient veers past the red line. The history of the human race is so rife with examples of polity A committing atrocities against people of polity B under pretexts 1, 2, … N that it does not take long of pok…

The Red Army raping its way through Germany (not sure if that is the country the comment you're replying to was referring to), is pretty well documented and agreed upon by everyone other than Russian historians. > Finland joined Nazi Germany as an ally and participated in the invasion of the Soviet Union When you linked to an article on the Continuation War, did you wonder why it was called the Continuation War? Not…

> The Red Army raping its way through Germany […]

In fact, it was much worse and started way before. According to informal accounts that Russian historians silently omit due to not boding well the narrative of the glory and the purity of the Soviet victory, male Wermacht soldiers captured in trenches of the Eastern Front were frequently sexually abused and raped with material objects other than a male genitalia, such as glass bottles. The most commonly cited reason (and an excuse) is revenge for an attempt of a near total extermination of Eastern Slavs (Poles, Belarussians, Ukrainians – not just ethnic Russians). Actually, it was the Poles, the Belarussians and the Ukrainians who bore the main brunt of the Nazi brutality.

US and British troops, however, did participate in mass rapes after the fall of Berlin and West Germany as well, only to a lesser extent. Many of the Allied forces' soldiers were court martialed on the account of their involvement in mass rapes of German women. Yet, they were given a free reign in the first few days. Soviet Army was given a longer "leeway" in their rampage after which those involved in rapes and other atrocities were also court martialed. Again, the most cited reason is revenge for the murdering of 27+ million Soviet citizens. Personally, I can't accept revenge as a rationalisation of events.

> […] did you wonder why it was called the Continuation War?

Yes, I did ponder the very same question; yet, I am at a loss. Finland attacking back the Soviets on its own to regain previous losses and calling that The Continuation War? Yes, I can see a merit in that. Finland opportunistically siding with Nazi Germany, creating a pretext rooted in the nationalistic rhetoric and the Finnish epic poetry for the ethnic cleansing? No, it is a separate undertaking and not a continuation war (note the spelling).

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#203

Post by inkyoto » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 4:11 PM UTC

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #195

inkyoto wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top political leadership physically heading the country's troops in the battlefield has been unheard of since medieval ages, as this role has been delegated to the military commandership and to the army it commands long since then. Therefore I find it illogical to award the term of «statement» to the way you have chained an aggregation of words as it does not parse as a semantically or a historically valid «statement…

I don't know what ethnics has to do with it. If it waves the flag it's of the nation. Russia is a nation of russian people. A nation with a history of illegal invasion of its peaceful neighbors, including mine.

> A nation with a history of illegal invasion of its peaceful neighbors, including mine.

Historical facts prove you otherwise. Historically, Russia has been far more often on the receiving end of illegal invasions (I have not even attempted to count the number of innumerable skirmishes) from "peaceful" neighbours – a major invasion every 47.2 years on average between 1237 and 1945, which is something I have pointed out before with a list of reference points to each major invasion.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#204

Post by inkyoto » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 4:34 PM UTC

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #194

inkyoto wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Less than a hundred years ago russians marched into my country and tried to murder every man and rape every woman . You had better back such a sweeping statement up with hard facts and numbers as its emotional quotient veers past the red line. The history of the human race is so rife with examples of polity A committing atrocities against people of polity B under pretexts 1, 2, … N that it does not take long of pok…

The soviet union illegally and unprovoked invaded Finland in 1939 and conquered territory. Then: On 22 June 1941, Germany launched an invasion of the Soviet Union. Three days later, the Soviet Union conducted an air raid on Finnish cities, prompting Finland to declare war and allow German troops stationed in Finland to begin offensive warfare. By September 1941, Finland had regained its post–Winter War concessions to…

> Some prisoners of war dying of malnutrition or disease is hardly an evil act from a tiny nation of farmers struggling to feed themselves while fighting to survive invasion from russia.

Lastly, you are confusing who was invading whom in 1941-44 as well as who was starving whom, intentionally or not. There is also a major logical fallacy in your reasoning of «when ABC invades my homeland, the ABC are bad; but when my people being "a tiny nation of farmers struggling to feed themselves" invade ABC in a retaliation, rightfully or not, and intern and starve women, elderly and children of ABC, that is acceptable because it is a small price to pay for what heinous things the people of ABC had previously done to my people». There has been no right party in any invasion over the course of the entire human history.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#205

Post by hypertele-Xii » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 4:46 PM UTC

inkyoto wrote: post #204

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The soviet union illegally and unprovoked invaded Finland in 1939 and conquered territory. Then: On 22 June 1941, Germany launched an invasion of the Soviet Union. Three days later, the Soviet Union conducted an air raid on Finnish cities, prompting Finland to declare war and allow German troops stationed in Finland to begin offensive warfare. By September 1941, Finland had regained its post–Winter War concessions to…

> Some prisoners of war dying of malnutrition or disease is hardly an evil act from a tiny nation of farmers struggling to feed themselves while fighting to survive invasion from russia . Lastly, you are confusing who was invading whom in 1941-44 as well as who was starving whom, intentionally or not. There is also a major logical fallacy in your reasoning of « when ABC invades my homeland, the ABC are bad; but when…

What's the major logical fallacy?

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#206

Post by emteycz » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 4:51 PM UTC

emteycz wrote: post #193

native_samples wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the argument here is not that they'll have to make do with lower quality parts. It's that they won't be able to get or make the parts they need at all . That is a very different and much less likely argument, especially as there are still many countries they're trading with through which imports can be routed.

No, today it's the same. They're thousands of miles away from today's precision manufacturing. They won't be able to make usable parts. If they try to use whatever they produce, their machines will likely explode, or at least grind to halt.

And their "friends" like China won't ever let them have the machines that produce machines, because that's how they dominate others (and China learned that well from the West).

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#207

Post by hypertele-Xii » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 5:00 PM UTC

inkyoto wrote: post #197

hypertele-Xii wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The soviet union illegally and unprovoked invaded Finland in 1939 and conquered territory. Then: On 22 June 1941, Germany launched an invasion of the Soviet Union. Three days later, the Soviet Union conducted an air raid on Finnish cities, prompting Finland to declare war and allow German troops stationed in Finland to begin offensive warfare. By September 1941, Finland had regained its post–Winter War concessions to…

> The soviet union illegally and unprovoked invaded Finland in 1939 and conquered territory . The Soviet invasion of Finland in 1940? Yes, it was absolutely illegal, and I irrevocably concede with that fact. Finnish alliance with Nazi Germany to regain previously and forcibly ceded territories? Yes, I [can] accept that. Selective ethnic cleansing specifically targeting the ethnic Russians purely on the pretext of Kar…

I'm not your history teacher, go read a book. If you don't know what happens to the women and children after soviets invade your country then you'll surely be shortly educated.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#208

Post by tacitusarc » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 5:20 PM UTC

Mlller wrote: post #184

nip wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas [1] [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61164894

$1B/day is in fact the sum from all of the EU for gas and oil according to Josep Borrell, the EUʼs top diplomat from Spain [1], [2], [3]. The $139M/day ≈ 13.9% from Germany include oil and gas (according to the source I gave). The source you provided (thank you) reads: “Proceeds from the sale of Russian oil and gas amount to around $1bn (£770m) a day”. In the context of the article, it is misleading, unfortunately; i…

I appreciate this back and forth, thank you. I’m disappointed in the BBC reporting here.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#209

Post by jupp0r » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 6:14 PM UTC

tacitusarc wrote: post #208

Mlller wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$1B/day is in fact the sum from all of the EU for gas and oil according to Josep Borrell, the EUʼs top diplomat from Spain [1], [2], [3]. The $139M/day ≈ 13.9% from Germany include oil and gas (according to the source I gave). The source you provided (thank you) reads: “Proceeds from the sale of Russian oil and gas amount to around $1bn (£770m) a day”. In the context of the article, it is misleading, unfortunately; i…

I appreciate this back and forth, thank you. I’m disappointed in the BBC reporting here.

I also fell into the BBC trap (I’m OP), thanks for the correction and the reminder to not just look at the top google result.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#210

Post by simonblack » Sun, Apr 24, 2022, 6:28 PM UTC

EdwardDiego wrote: post #188

simonblack wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually Russian factories will run out of machine spare parts Most parts are able to be manufactured anywhere. Certainly, it is cheaper (generally) to buy the parts from the usual manufacturers. But supply and demand will cause those parts to start to be made, whether in Russia itself, or in China (more likely). If those parts start to get made more cheaply in China than the original 'western' parts, the western p…

It'll be interesting when they start buying Chinese knock-off parts for machines. It didn't seem to work out so well for Russia's IFV tyres... > One aspect that wasn't covered was that a lot of Russian vehicles are fitted with cheap Chinese copies of off-road tyres which may be a significant contributor to the problems Russia is having and exacerbating the poor maintenance Trent talks about. https://www.tanknology.co…

We've gone through the 'cheap Asian knockoff' cycles many times before.

I can remember when it was Japanese stuff that was supposedly 'cheap and shoddy' but we all went out later and bought Mazda and Toyota cars and Canon cameras.

Then it was the Taiwanese stuff and today the whole world can't do without Taiwanese computer chips.

Then it was the Chinese stuff, and the same cycle. But the scene is changing. In the same way as I originally thought the Japanese stuff wasn't up to par and then bought a Mazda Rotary that I absolutely loved, I see that the Chinese Haval is not at all a bad SUV for the price.

These days it seems to be that it's Vietnam's turn to be going through the cycle. Starting off cheap, and then later moving up the value-added ladder.

History repeats. Products are made to a price. Just because we usually see the cheap Asian shit that our companies try to foist upon us doesn't mean those Asian countries can't produce high-quality stuff for themselves to use against us.

There was a cartoon from the 1940s that showed Bugs Bunny finger-flicking a Japanese battleship that then fell to pieces. That wasn't at all the actuality of what happened when the US Navy finally met the Japanese Navy in early 1942.