Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

news.ycombinator.com

211–220 of 253 posts

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#211
post #31

Supply and demand. 1. Capital controls. Russians are legally not allowed to sell their Rubles anymore. This decreases supply and keeps prices up. 2. A healthy dose of foreign currency ($1B/day from Germany alone) gives the Russian central bank plenty of tools to buy Rubles and increase demand for it to keep prices up. This does not mean that the existing sanctions aren’t working. Eventually Russian factories will run…

> Eventually Russian factories will run out of machine spare parts and everything will grind to a halt Probably not. The Russian economy is unusually self-reliant, a legacy of Soviet times. It's pretty common to discover that for some niche weird thing there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world and one of them is Russian. For example: one reason it's hard to build nuclear reactors is that the containment…

> The Russian economy is unusually self-reliant

Not anymore from what experts are writing, but only time will tell. Aircraft industry is a good example [1], as most planes operated in Russia require western maintenance parts that can’t easily be replaced.

Other examples are in gas and oil drilling equipment [2].

> The Economist was pretty consistently writing deranged propaganda about Russia even 5 years ago

You call warning about the danger of Russia invading neighboring countries driven by the ideological shift towards imperialism “propaganda”?

[1] https://www.frost.com/frost-perspectives/will-sanctions-from...

[2] https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/putin-admits-western-sancti...

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, today it's the same. They're thousands of miles away from today's precision manufacturing. They won't be able to make usable parts. If they try to use whatever they produce, their machines will likely explode, or at least grind to halt.

And their "friends" like China won't ever let them have the machines that produce machines, because that's how they dominate others (and China learned that well from the West).

A good part of Chinese high tech factory machines are made in places like Germany [1]. This is slowly changing though as China is becoming a major exporter of production machinery themselves, albeit starting from the low tech side of things (think plastic molding).

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And here we have a perfect example of anti-Russian bigotry.

Less than a hundred years ago russians marched into my country and tried to murder every man and rape every woman. Now they're marching into Ukraine and doing the same. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about, you just want to "feel good" about how woke you percieve yourself to be, all the while living comfortably very far from a russian border, I'd wager. All this seems just overblown bigotry to you.

And what would you suggest we do? Murder every Russian man and rape every Russian woman as collective retribution? Besides, how many Ukrainians were in the Red Army that invaded Finland in 1939? And what was the nationality of the man who ordered that invasion? By your logic, Russians, Ukrainians, and Georgians are all your enemies, so why take a side when they are fighting between themselves?

My moral stance here is to remember the distinction between a people and a regime. It’s the opposite of what the “woke” do; in fact, many of the “woke” wholeheartedly agree with you.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.

I guess it doesn't help when there's footage of mass graves in Ukraine. (I'm aware that they've been publicised via Ukrainian PR, so the truth may be blurry, but given that the French just published footage of soldiers burying bodies in Mali, that they claim are Russian mercenaries trying to carry out a false flag attack, I'm inclined to believe that the Ukrainians didn't kill a bunch of their own citizens to make Ru…

These mass graves are the product of indiscriminate hatred and collective retribution. How can they possibly justify it?

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's always russian people invading . Let's cross check this statement against the historical record of invasions of what we now collectively know as Belorus, Russia and Ukraine. A list of major invasions that took place that we have a historical record of: - Mongol invasion of Kievan Rus' (1237–1242), a series of invasions that resulted in the Rus' states becoming vassals of the Golden Horde. - Livonian campaign a…

You misunderstand my statement. I didn't mean that "every invasion is by russian people", I meant that "when russia invades, it's the russian people doing the invasion not their leaders".

I don’t begrudge hatred towards a foreign army carrying out an invasion of conquest. I’m also fairly willing to justify relatively extreme tactics to bring such a war to a satisfactory end; for instance, I believe the atomic bombings of Japan were justified. But when you talk about indiscriminate hatred towards the Russian people, you’re including Russian people who mind their own business and have nothing to do with these invasions. You’re even including Russian people who might oppose these invasions and have done what they could to resist them.

Russia isn’t even a democracy, and it’s safe to say that it never has been. The people of Russia have always been the victims of their own autocratic regimes. If you treat them as an enemy because you are victimized by the same autocratic regime that they are, you are only furthering the interests of the regime itself, which is your true enemy and theirs.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the alternative, though? The leader of your country is terrorizing Europe in ways not seen in almost 80 years. We all know all-out war between nuclear states is not an option, so what should Western nations do? Just sit back and ignore the indiscriminate war crimes? It's ironic to me, given how clearly Putin's worldview presumes that power is all matters, how quick Russia has been to cry foul over sanctions. I…

> It's ironic to me, given how clearly Putin's worldview presumes that power is all matters, how quick Russia has been to cry foul over sanctions. Unfortunately this is exactly how the world works. Decades of unipolar world order may have led to the wrong impression though I really liked the recent Noam Chomsky's interview on the subject of geting along. It's called How To Prevent World War III https://www.currentaff…

Noam Chomsky has had a remarkable career, but he's really old and was never anywhere within shouting distance of the political center. Neither is Current Affairs, for what it's worth. His argument seems to be that Putin's belligerence is effectively an act of God, and that our only choice from now until eternity is to submit to it. Dr. Chomsky's childhood was apparently so long ago, he's forgotten that appeasing a bully only ever makes him worse.

For the record, no country is capable of making another country's citizens resist an invasion to the last man. Look what happened to the army in Afghanistan. Despite what Russian state TV is telling you, Ukrainians want to fight far more desperately than the rest of the world wants them to. They all grew up learning about the Holodomor, for one thing. And that was true even before Putin razed a bunch of their major cities and killed tens of thousands of people. The US is just providing weapons—many of them old and Soviet-made, no less—to a people desperate to protect themselves from what they clearly see as a fate at least as bad as, if not worse than, death.

Nothing about this is inevitable. The world works however the people in it want it to work. We can build a better one, or we can all decide that we're OK repeating the endless brutality of the past. The West has (imperfectly, sporadically) chosen the former since the fall of Nazi Germany, and the result, despite all the missteps, has been an unprecedented era of global peace and prosperity. Russia was welcome to join this fraternity in the 90's, but instead was consumed by corruption and mob rule and retreated inward to misguided nationalism and xenophobia.

It seems to have been forgotten in Russia that the Soviet Union was a disaster, and its primary victims were its own citizens. Stalin murdered tens of millions of his own people. It promulgated a culture that installed bloodthirsty dictators who were almost as bad in dozens of countries, and whose ideology was so ineffective that it led to devastating famine in many communist countries. It gave us Chernobyl. For all the talk about hating Nazis, the USSR (and, increasingly, Putin's regime) much more closely resembled Nazi Germany than any country you'd recognize nowadays, except maybe China or North Korea. Soviet vassal states all voted to leave the USSR by >80% margins the second the regime collapsed.

Russia is hell-bent on being recognized as a great power, but there's little to substantiate that claim. The country has been hollowed out economically by seemingly endless and endemic corruption. It turns out the military is only really good at committing war crimes. Russia's two greatest military victories—a point of great national pride—are both seen by historians as much more akin to enemy self-owns than great acts of brilliance or might. Its intelligence agencies have likely been the single most destabilizing force in world politics over the last hundred-plus years, dating back to the Tsars. Many of the most persistent and idiotic conspiracy theories—e.g. the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the CIA creating AIDS as a weapon to use against Black people—are literally fabrications of Russian intelligence programs. Your dictator deliberately creates refugee crises around "enemy" countries with the aim of exploiting their compassion and generosity to cause political unrest. And you're either one of the only countries brazen enough to regularly carry out state-sponsored assassinations, or the only ones sloppy enough to keep getting caught. You even cheat at the f--king Olympics.

Case in point, here's a list of Russian oligarchs who have conveniently decided to commit suicide after killing their families in the last two months: https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-oligarch-who-has-died.... It's amazing how many of them have fallen from tall buildings over the years, too.

You're right, as long as Russia has a bunch of nukes, they'll be treated with a certain amount of deference. But don't conflate fear—which Putin wields very effectively—with respect, which will never, ever be earned on the world stage through this kind of behavior. You can't butcher and threaten your way to esteem. It's a lesson Xi could stand to learn as well.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that’s what a silent majority of reasonable people might think, but there is still a ton of indiscriminate anti-Russian bigotry going around.

And they're committing a literal genocide while Russians abroad are silent or tacitly supporting it. When Ukrainians are no longer being killed then we can talk about hurt feelings...

Yours is the logic that leads to genocide.

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they're committing a literal genocide while Russians abroad are silent or tacitly supporting it. When Ukrainians are no longer being killed then we can talk about hurt feelings...

Yours is the logic that leads to genocide.

Pretty sure whatever logic the Russians are using leads to genocide considering they're committing it right now...

I'm literally advocating for an end to genocide...

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yours is the logic that leads to genocide.

Pretty sure whatever logic the Russians are using leads to genocide considering they're committing it right now... I'm literally advocating for an end to genocide...

You are advocating indiscriminate and collective hatred towards entire nationalities. That hatred is the root cause of genocide.

And if that is truly your attitude, you don’t even have a consistent moral basis to claim that genocide is categorically wrong. By your logic, an entire nationality of people are collectively responsible for whatever their regime and military do. Since a hostile military can be justifiably killed, why not the civilian populace? I have an answer that question; do you?

Re: Ask HN: Why did the ruble stabilize and what's going on?

#220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure whatever logic the Russians are using leads to genocide considering they're committing it right now... I'm literally advocating for an end to genocide...

You are advocating indiscriminate and collective hatred towards entire nationalities. That hatred is the root cause of genocide. And if that is truly your attitude, you don’t even have a consistent moral basis to claim that genocide is categorically wrong. By your logic, an entire nationality of people are collectively responsible for whatever their regime and military do. Since a hostile military can be justifiably…

I simply said that we can talk about Russians' hurt feelings when Ukrainians aren't being killed by Russians.

Quote where I said Russians should be killed? No one's killing Russian civilians. I never said anyone should.

Russian media and leaders have said Ukraine should be wiped off the map. Mariupol is no longer a city. Tens of thousands of civilians murdered. Women raped. But people are being mean to Russians? You're literally whitewashing a genocide...

How about you say what the Russians are doing is wrong?

Post reply on HN